[Oling_Roachinen]

Sure is a lot of votes for that Oling_Roachman, must be a suspicious fellow.

Originally Posted by Drury18

8. Squiggs96

Day 1 - Baxter Renegade, GP_Matt ,
Day 2 - GP_Matt, East Coast Flame, GP_Matt, hmmhmmcamo
Day 3 - Starseed, Timbo
Day 4 - Formulate
Day 5 - GGG
Day 6 - GGG
Day 7 - Oling_Roachman

17. Baxter Renegade/Aeneas

Day 1 - starseed, hmmhmmcamo
Day 2 - Starseed, Timbo
Day 3 - No Vote
Day 4 - GGG
Day 5 - No Vote
Day 6 - Dissentower

18. GirlySports

Day 1 - Bizaro86, RatherDashing
Day 2 - GP_Matt, GP_Matt, Squiggs96
Day 3 - GGG
Day 4 - GGG
Day 5 - GGG
Day 6 - GGG
Day 7 - Dissentower

So I got a theory. On day 1 Squiggs96 gets under some pressure (Pressure that we know was created by town, Delgar, GGG etc. started it).

The first person to come to his defense is:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Hopefully squiggs96 will post soon, I want to give him a chance. I agree that an inactive player is probably a townie but won't be any help.

I'll wait a bit longer before I give him a licking.

Girlysports might have just been in an extremely bad spot here. Both Squiggs and Baxter being inactive.

Then mrkajz44 makes a post for Bizaro and Girlysports and Baxter jump on board (as did I).

It's a known townie in mrkajz44 that once again starts the next Squiggs96 bandwagon:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Unvote

Had plans for most of the day, but now that I've checked back in it seems things have gotten interesting.

I was very surprised to see the pile-on that occurred to bizarro. I threw out the second vote there mainly to try and give them a "kick in the pants" so to speak. After that the votes came pretty quick and the number rolled up to 9 with most votes giving little to no explanation at all. To me, that seems like a mafia pile-on as there was so little voting before that.

Therefore, I am taking my vote off bizarro - I voted mostly to hear from them, and now that they responded I feel like the reason was reasonable for being inactive.

I am back being suspicious of squiggs. They have added nearly nothing of value since chiming in after there was a few votes against them:


For me, most of these posts were just driving up "post number" rather than adding actual value. And the moment the pressure was moved off squiggs the voting pile-on came. For that reason, I'm moving back to squiggs. I really don't think bizarro is mafia, their posts do seem authentic.

|Vote: squiggs96

Now Squiggs96 votes for Baxter, he's the first one to do so:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Baxter stated that inactivity is not very telling of affiliation, but is also tied for the low post count. Pika thinks that's as good of reason as any to vote. If I'm wrong, as least it will provoke some discussion.

vote Baxter Renegade

And it does gain a bit of traction. But his next posts are all about trying to make new targets:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I get that there were a few votes for me, especially after how I started. If I was mafia I'd have expected other posters in my mafia to tell me how to post and play a lot better. Sadly, pika is still learning how to play and is experiencing a harsher learning curve than he expected.

If the three who currently have their votes on me (Delgar, mrkajz44, dissentowner), then I'd put each of them on my current watch list for mafia. Now for chu's theory: dissentower was the first to ask for everybody to reveal their characters in post #23. In p....

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I'm hoping hmmhmmcamo posts more soon. There hasn't been much from him yet except that he is in favour of doing it randomly and there isn't enough of other people posting for him to post. Pika thinks that's a little weird. Wouldn't the way to get information be to start talking? He hasn't been targeted, so he hasn't said anything. Chu wants to know if you have any theories.

Seems like an early vote for a mafia friend to say "I can't be his mafia friend, I voted for him"

The GP_Matt/Ratherdashing thing happen.

It's Girlysports who does the hammer, giving no chance to let Ratherdashing reveal role and starts the "let's confuse the mafia" stuff.

Next day it's in the clear for those three when it comes to actual votes, GP_Matt is in trouble for the Eternals as is ECF. Baxter and Squiggs get called out for inactivity a lot. Baxter gets replaced with Aeneas. Aeneas spends time reading the mafia thread, fortunately it's short with only Girlysports making posts in it.

But then, the tides turn. Puxlut, again a townie, goes for Squiggs but there's no real support.

Aeneas is quick to vote for hmmhmmcamo without reading everything, almost like it was suggested to do so.

GP_Matt is killed and then I vote for Squiggs96 with GGG doing so.

With the votes at something like 9 votes for hmmhmmcamo and 3 votes for Squiggs96, Squiggs96 reveals his power way early.

Then the 'confirmed townies' pretty much agrees that the best options are hmmhmmcamo, squiggs96 or girlysports.

Originally Posted by GGG

I am squiggs or girly.

perfer girly

Originally Posted by Drury18

Well I'll just vote and if I have to unvote, I'm sure Mazrim will point that out.

vote: GirlySports

She's #1 on my scum suspect list and she hasn't done much to make me think I need to move her off of it.

Originally Posted by Delgar

Hmm, sqiggs, GS, each work for me.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I have 8 for hmhmhmhmh, 2 for Squiggs and 1 for GS

Vote: Girlysports

I'd like to hear her talk

Originally Posted by Wood

Hmmhmmcamo and squiggs are the easy lynch for me, simply based on inactivity and not hunting for scum. If you're not helping the town, you're hurting it. I had Baxter in with them too but I want to give Aeneas a chance to contribute

I agree with starseed on the oling/delgar theory. I Had delgar on my mafia list earlier. I had oling on my town list because I agreed with him on the people he was pressuring (Matt and delgar) but I've been flipping between his and delgars side recently. I'm not really comfortable lynching either yet, but they're both making a lot of noise

I think Girlysports would be the most impactful lynch, I've had a guy feeling she's mafia since the beginning but haven't had enough evidence to go after her too hard. Starseed has had her back all game, and I trust him so far, but if girly flipped mafia I think he'd need to be a target. I'd vote girly for sure

I'm leaning towards GGG being mafia

Don't have much else for targets really. If I was to post a revamped townie list, I'd have Dissentowner, ECF and timbo as the only ones I really trust. If girly flipped town I'd put starseed in there too

The only reason girly actually votes for Squiggs96 is because GGG called her out:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You are using my own argument against me!

Vote: squiggs96

There's a little bit more support but unfortunately it's hmmhmmcamo who ends up getting lynched by Wood's hammer:

Originally Posted by Wood

Squiggs lives another day

unvote:
Vote: hmmhmmcamo

The next day we get distracted easily. MOT, invites, powers and then Starseeds reveal which pits Town vs Town (in my opinion).

The only really noticeable action these three do is Squiggs96 tries to plant it in our heads that ECF was lying.

That day ends with the Timbo non-lynch.

The next day starts with confusion until we get to the Rathji kill. This completely catches the mafia off guard. The first kill is alright, no one really cares because no one was aligned with formulate but when it comes to chosing the next target:

Originally Posted by Wood

I'm choosing Squiggs as the target to use the one shot on. Doesn't reveal any new abilities, if he's mafia it makes Diss look good. Of the possible suspects left, there's at least a few mafia in there. Who they mentioned they'd like to target could be revealing

Originally Posted by Aeneas

I have suspected, in order (maybe, dont have noted)... GGG, Starseed, Timbo, Oling, and darn, have to look it up.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

TPika doesn't mind the first part of your analysis, as I can buy that. Since I know I'm town, when I flip it, one of Timbo or Oling is likely scum per your analysis. Why not use the kill on one of them? I'd pick Oling out of that, since Drury used the intervention to save Timbo.

Wood wants us to reveal who we want to kill. Aeneas posts no signs of Girlysports or Squiggs96, while Squiggs96 wants me killed even before the reveal.

(For the record I was okay with an Aeneas or Girlysports kill, I just wanted Wood to be the one to make the decision).http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=3041

Girlysports doesn't come back until Rathji reveals he didn't get his power back (I think) and is insistent he doesn't post a fake action for some reason.


Then today, Squiggs96 goes for Girlysports but hops off the bandwagon the ssecond the power is revealed like it was preplanned and Girlysports and Aeneas do that weird pressure into voting out Diss. They're working together.


My list:
Squiggs96 - 100 percent
Girlysports
Aeneas


I've changed my mind on Timbo, but I don't know who the fourth would be if there is one.