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Originally Posted by Tinordi
My point is that I don't think the Flames will be bad enough to finish last, it's basically a roll of the dice either way, you really don't know how good and bad other teams will be. Couple that with the new draft lottery system and even if you finish last the odds are that you will NOT pick last. You only have a 25% chance of winning the lottery as the last place team.
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So, since the 2011-12 season, the Flames have lost four of their five top producers (Iginla, Jokinen, Tanguay and Bouwmeester), their number one defenseman (Bouwmeester), their best leader on the blueline (Sarich), and their starting goaltender (Kiprusoff). They have been replaced by guys that have a reputation of being tough to play against (Jones, Galiardi, and O'Brien), but not overly talented, a career backup goaltender (MacDonald), a couple of untested and unproven European goaltenders (Ramo and Berra), and an untested college player (Knight). You don't think this is step down toward the bottom?
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Please get this through your head, my point is two-fold:
Odds are the Flames will not get one let alone two #1 overall draft picks over the next two years.
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If the Flames finish dead last I like their odds. The odds are highly in the team's favor. Even if they do not get that first overall pick they are assured of getting a player likely as good or possibly better than the Oilers players, especially based on team needs.
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Odds are the Flames will be better than the Oilers over the past 3 years.
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How so? You name find me two rosters worse than the Calgary Flames. This is a team without a number one or number two center. There is no proven scorer that can be relied upon as the go-to guy. The Flames have a brutal defense. Brodie is the best we have and he is not going to carry the mail by himself. The goaltending picture is as clouded as any team I've ever seen. The possibilities are there for a good team a few years, but this year is going to be brutal this year, and as Stajan, Cammalleri and Stempniak are moved out for draft picks/prospects the team will be that much worse in 2014-15. They will be bottom of the league and will have a top three pick at worst in the next two or three drafts.
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Which means that the Flames will need to have better depth, scouting and development to match the Oiler's high picks in the past three years.
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The Flames already have better depth, but they need to have it develop, and that is going to take a couple of years. If the Flames are smart, Monahan will be back in junior after his try out. Wotherspoon and Sieloff will be AHL bound for some seasoning. All three of those players may make their full time appearance in 2014-15, but that will be a year of them adjusting to the league. This team doesn't turn the corner until 2015-16 when their good young prospects have had a chance to step in and get their feet wet. That is two definite bottom of the league years with a potential third in 15-16. That is three more top end talents to the mix that have the potential to be as good or better. With the planets aligning in 2014-15 the Flames still have probably the best chance of any team at McDavid. He alone could tilt the balance.
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Why is this basic idea failing you?
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Even though I'm a bonehead and misinterpreted the draft odds, its because it is flawed in so many ways. The Flames were a bottom of the heap team last year and got substantially worse this off season. They are going to get even worse as three more veterans exit. This team is on a downward slope and there is nothing to stop it. Sigh.