Quote:
Originally Posted by Tilley
I believe on the McKenzie mid-year prospect rankings, Bob indicated that the NHL would adjust the probabilities slightly allowing the worst team in the league a greater likelihood of getting the 1st overall pick (likely similar to the NBA model). I do like the idea of any team in the lottery getting the first pick; as long as Calgary's not bumped beyond 6 if it were to break down that way.
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25% is the best odds based on 14 teams. Break's down like this (NBA model):
1.) 25%
2.) 19.9%
3.) 15.6%
4.) 11.9%
5.) 8.8%
6.) 6.3%
7.) 4.3%
8.) 2.8%
9.) 1.7%
10.) 1.1%
11.) 0.8%
12.) 0.7%
13.) 0.6%
14.) 0.5%
So even though the worst team only has a 1/4 chance of picking 1st, it's still the best odds out of the 14 teams. Not like the 48% chance worst place used to get. But I am still trying to find out if they're going to make all the selections lottery based, or just who gets 1st.
Interesting note that the 1993 Orlando Magic won the lottery with only a 1.5% chance, so it does happen.