Using ERA? Come on...
No one thinks he's a bad pitcher. In fact, everybody thinks he's a good one. The reason people say he spiked last year is because he did. He was already good, last year he was great. That's not to say he won't be great again, but he doesn't have the track record of a guy who has been a Cy Young contender for years, which means he should have less value.
Last 3 years of WAR... 3.4, 3.1, 5.6
Last 3 years of SO.... 104, 136, 230
Last 3 years of RAA... 20, 15, 34
And his age is relevant because while he's a knuckler and it's mitigated a little because an average pitcher would have already retired, pro athletes do have finite careers, and at 38 he's closer to the end of his. It's not saying he won't be valuable next year or for 1 or 3 or maybe even 5 more - it's just saying that on the trade market, he shouldn't bring the same return as a 28 year old ace because there's a good likelihood that in the next 1-3 years, he will be gone.
There's a reason that this is the reaction to the last trade rumor:
Ken RosenthalVerified @Ken_Rosenthal Can't judge reported proposals for
#Mets' Dickey until deal complete. At first glance, D'Arnaud-Syndergaard seems overpay by
#BlueJays . . .
Buster OlneyVerified @Buster_ESPN
Evaluators around MLB are beyond shocked TOR is talking about trading Travis d'Arnaud for a player with one year on his contract, Dickey.
MLB Trade Rumors
"The broad perception in the industry is that if the Mets pull off the deal, it's an incredible trade for them."
Because there are details still to come, but right now this deal looks like the Jays dropped the soap.
And all the talk of prospects not all panning out so they should be currency is beyond stupid... every player was a prospect at one point, and for every trade where guys busted there are two where a team didn't win anything, or worse, a guy or two turned into an amazing MLB all-star for 15 years, and these two prospects are the Jays best with the highest likelihood of making it. I could name 15 trades where rental/short term player deals backfired badly. If you're using that rationale not get worked up about the deal fair enough, but this is not good value for the Jays. It's the kind of move that really hammers home "3 year window" for the Jays instead of, "We're headed back into a decade of contention".
It'll be a great year to watch, and I'll enjoy it as much as any of you, but you're deluding yourselves if you think this is good value. Catching prospects are worth a ton, and D'Arnaud is the best in baseball right now. Adding in another blue chipper is a huge overpayment, that the Jays don't need to make right now.