Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Very interesting result.
Turner still on upward trend, but perhaps not quite as dramatic a change in the last week as they might have hoped. Crockatt entrenched in the mid 30s, Locke entrenched at 30.
So, what to do?
Turner will argue that he's still moving upward and Locke is stalled therefore must coalesce around him.
Locke will argue Turner's momentum is plateauing and that he's closest to Crockatt therefore must coalesce around him.
Meades is going nowhere, but I imagine there's a hardcore base of 6-8% NDP support that won't switch to keep Crockatt out.
The poll 2-3 days out is the one that matters, but this one will prevent much movement to one candidate to stop Crockatt, which is bad news. I think the opposition was really hoping to see Crockatt's support continue to crater, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Vote split such a big factor now.
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I think that works more in favour of Locke than of Turner. I'm a red tory, definitely won't vote green, so it's between Crockett and Locke. I doubt Locke is stealing many votes from Turner but it's definitely the other way around.