Quote:
Originally Posted by Bownesian
It's a three-day rolling poll so yesterday's poll is 2/3 of today's poll. To illustrate, imagine if the daily sample numbers were:
Monday: 10%
Tuesday: 11%
Wednesday: 12%
Thursday: 13%
Friday: 14%
Saturday 13.5%
Then the 3-day averages would be:
Wednesday: 11% (Average of Monday-Wednesday)
Thursday: 12%
Friday: 13%
Saturday: 13.5%
Saturday would appear to be an increase in support in the three-day tracking poll when it really reflects a decrease in that day's data. The fact that the NDP rise has decelerated may represent a pleateau or a drop. It could also be the result of margin of error or of reaching their potential vote ceiling.
|
I agree, it was only yesterday where Layton finally had to answer tough questions on his policies and that hit the news cycle. Today's press is even worse, if that has an effect it won't really show in that 3 day average until Sunday. At that point it's pretty much too late to draw conclusions because the election will be Monday.