[jammies]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

What, no Canada??

I was going to put us in at 100:1 and write up some eyewash about how it's possible that after the 2nd US Civil War, we move into the three Pacific states, etc, but realistically the chances are zero. Other than, I suppose, as part of some kind of resurrected Commonwealth in some extremely unlikely future on the order of 1000:1.

Originally Posted by jonesy

Very nice.What is your view on Islamic nations rising up to rule over all? I'd say 5:1, maybe even 3:1

No chance. Islam is an overblown threat, and oil is what gives them the little muscle they have now.

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I really doubt that Europeans will be able to get along well enough in the next 50 years to build a unified superpower - short of some type of mass homogeniztion, which would likely come after a very large war.

Well, 5 to 1 odds is 80% against, so I rather agree with you that their chances of becoming a superpower aren't that good. I doubt they will go to war, though, at least not against each other - the only credible opponents are the Russians and perhaps some kind of Islamic coalition led by the Turks. However, the Russians don't have the muscle and the Turks are more interested in joining the European Community than fighting it.

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

China and India will be regionally powerfull, but neither has a history of forcibly imposing their power outside of the particular spheres.... although, China has been pretty busy establishing power in Africa recently (Angola in particular). All in all though, I think they are more or less going to watch as Western Civilization destroys itelf.

What makes you think Western civilization is going to destroy itself? I think that possibility ended in 1989 myself.

Originally Posted by Playfair

There is a huge thorn in this theory. Oil. The world is going to get very thirsty for oil fast, even if they develop other forms of fuel, oil is going to be a huge factor. The other things that are going to be huge factors are obvious as well - food and water.

Well, except that the basis of my thought is that the developed nations are finally serious about getting off of oil, and that by 2060 that process will be complete. If I'm wrong, look to a very dangerous future where the USA and its client states resort to more and more military action to preserve American control of the majority of oil production, and every other power bloc scheming to end that control.

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

I'd put the US odds at 1:3 rather than 3:1 and in response to a previous poster I'd make the Islamic World a 500:1. What about the United Anglo Nations (US / UK / Can / NZ / Aus)?

While I find the idea of an English-speaking bloc of countries appealing, I don't see how it works, especially under American guidance. There is a cultural connection, but physically the nations are too far apart and there is no economic rationale for such a coalition either. In the end I think the British will fully integrate into the European Union and the Australians/New Zealanders will align with India.