Calgary North Hill Under the Radar - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

First Lady · 02-24-2008, 12:14 PM

The last three weeks have been crazy and I suspect I have missed some good debates on the CP. As we head into the final stretch, I would like to share some election speculation with you.

Plus, it only seems fair that I share my blog with CP since I mention it in one of posts.

Quote:

Calgary North Hill Under the Radar

I am a little surprised that Calgary North Hill has not garnered much attention. I believe it is a constituency that the PC's will lose in this election. Maybe everyone already realizes that; thus the media is not bothering to cover it.

Kyle Fawcett is running for the PC's. He certainly cannot rely on riding Ed Stelmachs' coattails to victory, since he does not have any in Calgary. The coattails of the incumbent, Richard Magnus are pretty short as well; in 2004 of all the PC's in Calgary, he won by the narrowest margin with only 43.2%.

In that election his vote count dropped by over 2500 from the previous election. Yet, voter turnout from 2001 to 2004 only dropped about 900. Where did the other votes go? The difference was picked up by the Green and Liberal candidates. Protest votes perhaps?

The PC's are certainly no more popular today than they were in 2004. Add to this the fact that many Magnus supporters have now "come over to the Wild side" and PC fundraising is in slump in Calgary; surely they realize this is a lost seat.

I am not a political strategist that can fully analyze the outcome with any certainty; but let's explore a potential scenerio for fun.

Continued: http://janemorgan.blogspot.com/

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 01:24 PM

Kyle Fawcett is an "unknown," but Jane Morgan is not?

Rathji · 02-24-2008, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Kyle Fawcett is an "unknown," but Jane Morgan is not?

Propaganda disguised as fact is what wins elections.

If First Lady was not a normal poster on this board I would consider this serious spam and totally inappropriate, even if it was a party/candidate that I supported that was doing it.

Kjesse · 02-24-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rathji

Propaganda disguised as fact is what wins elections.

If First Lady was not a normal poster on this board I would consider this serious spam and totally inappropriate, even if it was a party/candidate that I supported that was doing it.

Jane should go post in the game thread!

Maybe she's a closet Oilers Fan?

Good luck Jane, I'd toss my vote your way if I were in that riding.

I find that WAP is kind of quiet in the press, or is that just because the Herald/Sun are ignoring whatever Hinman is saying? It seems all the front page news is either Stelmach or Taft.

4X4 · 02-24-2008, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Kyle Fawcett is an "unknown," but Jane Morgan is not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rathji

Propaganda disguised as fact is what wins elections.

If First Lady was not a normal poster on this board I would consider this serious spam and totally inappropriate, even if it was a party/candidate that I supported that was doing it.

Heh. I admit I'm already irked from the last thread about the wildrose party, so maybe I'm just being picky now... But...

Wow this is a tough crowd. Reggie, can you not see the context in which she wrote that? The rolly eyes just make you look stupid.
Rathji, maybe you didn't read it either, but it's not propaganda. She's simply saying that the riding is in danger because the pc candidate is basically unknown. And this race is tighter than most have been in Alberta in the last while. Therefore, it's not a pc shoo-in. And therefore another party has a chance, unlike alot of ridings that will go to the pc candidate unknown or not.

Why is this such a thorn in peoples' sides around here? You disagree with her party's platform? Then attack it. Say something useful.

Again, (and I'm sure this is getting harder for people around here to believe), I'm not a wildrose supporter, but I am a supporter of politicians that get in touch with people. Are there any other candidates that bother to post on CP? I mean, for all the chest thumping we do around here about how prominent we like to think this place is, shouldn't there be a couple other politicians on here beating their drum (not in a spammy way) but at least weighing in on political threads?

Why the hell are some of you so hell bent on running people out of this place?
C'mon Reggie... Pretend she's an oiler fan. Attack her with statistics and facts. Not lame rolly eyes and dum dum statements.

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4X4

Heh. I admit I'm already irked from the last thread about the wildrose party, so maybe I'm just being picky now... But...

Wow this is a tough crowd. Reggie, can you not see the context in which she wrote that? The rolly eyes just make you look stupid.
Rathji, maybe you didn't read it either, but it's not propaganda. She's simply saying that the riding is in danger because the pc candidate is basically unknown. And this race is tighter than most have been in Alberta in the last while. Therefore, it's not a pc shoo-in. And therefore another party has a chance, unlike alot of ridings that will go to the pc candidate unknown or not.

Why is this such a thorn in peoples' sides around here? You disagree with her party's platform? Then attack it. Say something useful.

Again, (and I'm sure this is getting harder for people around here to believe), I'm not a wildrose supporter, but I am a supporter of politicians that get in touch with people. Are there any other candidates that bother to post on CP? I mean, for all the chest thumping we do around here about how prominent we like to think this place is, shouldn't there be a couple other politicians on here beating their drum (not in a spammy way) but at least weighing in on political threads?

Why the hell are some of you so hell bent on running people out of this place?
C'mon Reggie... Pretend she's an oiler fan. Attack her with statistics and facts. Not lame rolly eyes and dum dum statements.

Who the hell is Jane Morgan (who's last attempt at public office was under a different name) to call another candidate an unknown?

If she's banking on name recognition over party policies or the issues to woo voters, she's in for a surprise.

Hell, most folks probably think Jane Morgan was the chick from The Gong Show.

4X4 · 02-24-2008, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Who the hell is Jane Morgan (who's last attempt at public office was under a different name) to call another candidate an unknown?

If she's banking on name recognition over party policies or the issues to woo voters, she's in for a surprise.

Hell, most folks probably think Jane Morgan was the chick from The Gong Show.

You just don't get it, do you...? She's saying that the pc candidate is unknown. You know what? Forget it.

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4X4

You just don't get it, do you...? She's saying that the pc candidate is unknown. You know what? Forget it.

Oh, I "get it" alright...

It's politics as usual and a party who's supposedly all about a fresh approach and issue-oriented engages in petty optics.

Try telling us why folks shouldn't vote for Kyle Fawcett, not dismiss his supposed lack of public profile.

4X4 · 02-24-2008, 04:31 PM

Sounds to me that you're the one engaged in petty optics.

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4X4

Sounds to me that you're the one engaged in petty optics.

Gee I dunno, apparently she's prepared to ride the Great Statesman Paul Hinman's coat-tails and her WallFlower Alliance party's household name recognition.

She's as arrogant as those she derides.

First Lady · 02-24-2008, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Kyle Fawcett is an "unknown," but Jane Morgan is not?

Where did I claim that ?

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by First Lady

Where did I claim that ?

Quote:

PC:

As mentioned Magnus had already experienced a serious decline in support; Kyle Fawcett is an unknown in a time when PC support is at an all time low in Calgary, may very well register numbers similar to the Liberal candidate.

Odd thing to say about someone who's actually held public office.

4X4 · 02-24-2008, 05:27 PM

She MAY have been referring to herself not being an unknown. In other words (for the truly slow) it is a level playing field.

First Lady · 02-24-2008, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Odd thing to say about someone who's actually held public office.

Very few people even bother to vote for their school trustees.
He held that position in wards completely outside of Calgary North Hill. Most people can't name their own school trustee; let alone one in another part of the city.

So yes, I consider him an unknown. Not unlike myself. Sorry to have touched a nerve with you.

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by First Lady

Very few people even bother to vote for their school trustees.
He held that position in wards completely outside of Calgary North Hill. Most people can't name their own school trustee; let alone one in another part of the city.

So yes, I consider him an unknown. Not unlike myself. Sorry to have touched a nerve with you.

Oh I see...

So then slagging someone who holds an important, elected position in which the education of children is intrusted isn't a big deal?

Well, I'm certainly not voting for an Anti-Education candidate.

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 05:46 PM

Oh, and I've emailed a few of the other North Hill candidates....

Bobblehead · 02-24-2008, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by First Lady

Richard Magnus are pretty short as well; in 2004 of all the PC's in Calgary, he won by the narrowest margin with only 43.2%

2004 Calgary North Hill results:
Richard Magnus PC 4384
Pat Murray LIB 3223
Susan Stratton GRN 1264
Brent Best AAP 627
Aileen L. Machell NDP 630

2004 Calgary McCall results:
Shiraz Shariff PC 3203
Darshan S. Kang LIB 2958
Ina Given AAP 573
Sean Brocklesby GRN 359
Preet Sihota NDP 264

So in Calgary McCall, the percentage was 43.5%. He may have won with the lowest percentage of the riding's popular vote, but by saying it was the "narrowest margin of all the PCs in Calgary" is quite the spin, and may be considered misleading.

First Lady · 02-24-2008, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Oh I see...

So then slagging someone who holds an important, elected position in which the education of children is intrusted isn't a big deal?

Slagging? That's a bit of stretch. I said he was an unknown. I also said I am an unknown....guess I am slagging myself too.
I also said he was elected in another area. His votes from that are not going to necessarily translate into votes in North Hill.

Quote:

Well, I'm certainly not voting for an Anti-Education candidate.

Wow.... quite the spin there. You wouldn't happen to be Kyles campaign manager......

Quote:

Oh, and I've emailed all the other North Hill candidates....

Um, ok.....

... and this should concern me how ? Opening up lines of communication to candidates is a great idea; I encourage everyone to do it.

That must be a very deep nerve I have hit with you.

First Lady · 02-24-2008, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

2004 Calgary North Hill results:
Richard Magnus PC 4384
Pat Murray LIB 3223
Susan Stratton GRN 1264
Brent Best AAP 627
Aileen L. Machell NDP 630

2004 Calgary McCall results:
Shiraz Shariff PC 3203
Darshan S. Kang LIB 2958
Ina Given AAP 573
Sean Brocklesby GRN 359
Preet Sihota NDP 264

So in Calgary McCall, the percentage was 43.5%. He may have won with the lowest percentage of the riding's popular vote, but by saying it was the "narrowest margin of all the PCs in Calgary" is quite the spin, and may be considered misleading.

As I stated, I am not an anaylst and it was done in fun.... didn't realize it would be so contraversial....

Reggie Dunlop · 02-24-2008, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by First Lady

S
Wow.... quite the spin there. You wouldn't happen to be Kyles campaign manager......

Oh god, no....

Just an aversion to self-aggrandizing politicians, especially those representing a party that basically fractured soon after its inception and can't scourge up enough warm bodies to run a full slate.

Nothing personal, mind you.