Building a Contender: Flames Asset Management

[tvp2003]

Earlier in the rebuild, the term "asset management" was a frequently used (and sometimes cringe-worthy) catchphrase of the day. However, looking at the current roster and how it was compiled, some interesting things jump off the page:

1. Drafted:
Brodie (4th)
Backlund (1st)
Gaudreau (4th)
Bouma (3rd)
Monahan (1st)
Granlund (2nd)

2. Undrafted FA:
Giordano
Jooris

3. Traded for a mid/late pick:
Russell
Colborne
Bollig

4. Signed as a UFA:
Hiller
Wideman (rights acquired just prior to UFA status)
Glencross
Raymond
Hudler
Engelland
Diaz

5. Traded for roster player(s):
Smid
Stajan
Jones
Byron
Ramo

15 games or less: Baertschi (drafted 1st), Ferland (drafted 5th), Ortio (drafted 6th), Reinhart (drafted 3rd), Wolf (Undrafted FA)

First, the players in first three categories more or less make up the key "core" of the team, and likely will for years to come. Guys like Granlund and Jooris still have some more developing to do, but I think they've proven enough this year that they are part of the solution going forward. The only exception is Bollig -- I'm willing to give him until the end of the season (and playoffs?) to show that he fits in on this team as an everyday player.

Second, every player in the first three categories is basically a home run in terms of where/how they were acquired (again, only exception is Bollig). Gaudreau and Gio are probably "grand slams", but you get the point. In other words, the "returns" on those 10 players are probably as good as could be reasonably expected, if not better (and in some cases, much, much better). I think that's a sign of smart drafting and good player development, and ideally is how you want to (re-)build a team.

Third, the last two categories are primarily vets that are the "added parts" you need to make a successful team. Aside from Hiller and Hudler, a lot of these guys are interchangeable from year to year (not to minimize their contributions this year -- I just think they aren't the key pieces that you build your team around; we haven't).

Fourth, of the players in the last two categories, none have completely unreasonable terms and/or NMC/NTC's (I'd say the worst is Raymond's three-year deal; Stajan's is longer but he's versatile enough to play in many different roles). We can argue the dollar amount for some guys (like Engelland) but for a cap floor team it's really a non-issue right now. Again, smart allocation of resources knowing that we'll need the future cap space to lock up the guys in the first three categories.

Fifth, of the guys we've traded for (and who are on the current roster), none have cost us important assets like a high draft pick. At worst, second rounders were used in the trades to get Ramo and Byron, but neither were considered key players in the deal (at the time). Mostly parts for parts, which for a rebuilding team is the way it should be.

That doesn't mean all the moves we've made have been winners -- nobody from the Iginla/Bouwmeester trades are currently contributing to the team, and the trade down to pick Jankowski is looking bad because he's still at best two years away, when we could have had someone contributing now. However, we also have enough upcoming prospects to bolster the rest of the core (Bennett, Poirier, Klimchuk, Wotherspoon, Ortio) -- all drafted by the Flames and developing within the organization.

Conclusion: I can't imagine a better foundation to build a team. Strong down the middle, young, improving, strong character and hockey sense, well coached, fun to watch. Such a contrast to where this team was at as recently as 3-4 years ago.

[GioforPM]

The glaring hole is defence. You mentioned Wotherspoon, at the end. But the only real good proven young defencemen is Brodie. I can assume Gio plays a long time so include him. Maybe Russell but at 27, being small and playing his game, injuries can happen. But that's half a team at best.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

This organization has serious issues with consistently developing D-men.

[GranteedEV]

Although none of them are right-stick users, I actually see a LOT of potential in the D prospects we have. I see Hickey as someday being a potential #2 to Brodie's #1, and I predict Rafikov and Kulak as being second pairing guys. That still leaves Wotherspoon and Culkin as a future bottom pairing, and then there's still Kanzig who could be a Regehr type shut down man with enough development. None of these guys are undersized or irresponsible, and while they have development to go, I wouldn't undersell any of them. Sure, not all of them will hit their ceiling, but the seed is still sewn for some of them to.

...Plus if they pick up Brandon Carlo this year in the draft, that could just cement it.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I think we have a decent defenseman pool. Problem is a lot of them will take a long time to develop.

[thymebalm]

It's not that our defensive prospects don't have promise, it's just they are all far away from contributing at this point. I think we will end up trading some of our stronger foreard prospects (Hanowski, reinhart) to add a defender that is NHL ready, but who knows.

Roster is shaping up quite well for a rebuild in general though.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

This organization has serious issues with consistently developing D-men.

Though I would say this is an area that a lot of teams struggle with.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Conclusion: I can't imagine a better foundation to build a team. Strong down the middle, young, improving, strong character and hockey sense, well coached, fun to watch. Such a contrast to where this team was at as recently as 3-4 years ago.

Thank you for putting this together, that's some good content right there and should be required reading for any 'analyst' covering Flames games on TV.

[Brewmaster]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

This organization has serious issues with consistently developing D-men.

Not sure if I agree here. Since 2006, the Flames have only drafted one D-men in the first round, and two in the second round. The 1st rounder was Tim Erixon, and the 2nd rounders were Sieloff and Wotherspoon. Erixon was moved and never developed here, and we haven't really seen what Wotherspoon and Sieloff will turn into yet. So the Flames haven't really had any 'blue chip' prospects on D to develop. Then you have to consider TJ Brodie, who was a 4th rounder in 2008 and has developed into a great top pairing D-man.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Although none of them are right-stick users, I actually see a LOT of potential in the D prospects we have. I see Hickey as someday being a potential #2 to Brodie's #1, and I predict Rafikov and Kulak as being second pairing guys. That still leaves Wotherspoon and Culkin as a future bottom pairing, and then there's still Kanzig who could be a Regehr type shut down man with enough development. None of these guys are undersized or irresponsible, and while they have development to go, I wouldn't undersell any of them. Sure, not all of them will hit their ceiling, but the seed is still sewn for some of them to.

...Plus if they pick up Brandon Carlo this year in the draft, that could just cement it.

Basically you are projecting pretty much every prospect to become an NHLer. That just doesn't happen.

[Journey17]

It would be interesting to see in terms of asset management what "return" Calgary can get for some assets that they have developed. For example, Reinhart was drafted in the third round, is he now worth that? I seem him as an "extra" now that could be swapped for something else we need. I like what Byron brings but he is another asset that maybe could be swapped out.

Great analysis though. I wouldn't be surprised that next year we have even more "home grown" talent on the roster compared to players we had to trade for.

[Monahan23]

I'm not sure we have a defensive prospect that has top line potential but D prospects are hard to project. Brodie was drafted in the 4th round and Gio was undrafted

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Basically you are projecting pretty much every prospect to become an NHLer. That just doesn't happen.

I'm not predicting Sieloff, Gilmour, Roy,, Ramage, Kanzig to necessarily be NHLers. They all could of course (that's why you draft em), and Kanzig has the most NHL-ready body of the bunch.

I don't think Wotherspoon as a 3rd pairing guy is a reach. I suspect he's already an upgrade over Engelland or Smid.

I see Rafikov as the big question mark. Maybe he'll never even make the jump, or he'll never be able to adapt, or whatever whatever. But overall I do see him as beating Wotherspoon in potential.

That leaves Hickey, Culkin and Kulak.

Yes I'm predicting Hickey to be an NHLer.

Between Kulak and Culkin, I can't say anything with any actual confidence. But they're certainly hella promising. Kulak a bit more.

[tvp2003]

It’s true we don’t have any “A” class defensive prospects right now; a guy like Wotherspoon is a pretty solid “B” (top 6 with definite top 4 potential). The key are all of the “C” prospects we currently have:

Culkin
Kulak
Kanzig
Sieloff
Rafikov
Ramage?

(Hickey and Ollas Mattsson were both drafted in 2014 so it’s way too soon to tell)

Out of those 5-6 prospects, not all will become NHL’ers. However, all we need are a couple to develop into NHL calibre defensemen – if we’re lucky a solid 2-3 guy but at the very least a potential top 4 (in addition to Wotherspoon) and then a depth guy or two. Defensemen normally take longer to ripen so it’s not surprising that only one prospect (Wotherspoon) is on the cusp – he was a 2011 pick. So it will take some time before a few of these guys might start to emerge – until then you have the plug in the gaps with vets like Wideman, Engelland, Smid, Diaz, etc.

[neo45]

I rank our D prospects like:

1. Wotherspoon
2. Hickey
3. Culkin
4. Kulak
5. Rafikov
6. Mattsson

All left shots and only one that is even close to ready. Guys like Kanzig, Sieloff, Ramage really only look like bottom pairing potential guys to me, and that is if they develop much further. Huge weakspot in the rebuild, if one of our top 4 goes down it will be extremely obvious how much work we need on our D depth

[Da_Chief]

Hickey is going to be quite a player. Leave him in college another year and then bring him to AHL.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Gio turns 32 this off-season.

When he turns into a pumpkin, we have TJ Brodie, and a whole lot of nothing else for the first pairing.

Give Bennett a year to adjust to the NHL, a sophomore year that could go either way, and then a 3rd year to really cut his teeth and establish himself as a 1C. Monahan will be 23, Gaudreau will be 24, Backlund will be 28, our forwards will be at the age where they're ready to take it to the next level.

At which point Giordano will be 35, and winding down his career. He'll still be in the NHL, but he's not going to be the top-pairing anchor of a Stanley Cup contender.

We need to find a top-pair defenceman, and we need him ASAP.

[Enoch Root]

^ I totally agree with what you're saying, but 35 isn't old for a defenseman.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Think Hickey and Rafikov will surprise a lot of people. I'm no expert on either but always impressed when I've seen either.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

At which point Giordano will be 35, and winding down his career. He'll still be in the NHL, but he's not going to be the top-pairing anchor of a Stanley Cup contender.

Eh, he can be a #2. Brodie is already good enough to be a #1 on many teams, and is rapidly improving beside Gio.


Lest we forget:

Nik Lidstrom was 38 when the Red Wings last won the cup.
Nik Lidstrom was 39 when the Red Wings last made the final.
Nik Lidstrom was 41 when he last won the Norris Trophy.