Listened to the podcast with Dallas Eakins talking about advanced stats and he mentioned the makeup of the Oilers and how they are built counter to the formula of being strong up the middle. The ideal lineup is finding a top center, a top blueliner and a top goaltender. Considering that goal, how do the Flames stack up down the road?
Center
The Flames look really good in this regard. Sean Monahan is already looking like a player that will be one of those special players in the middle. Then they have Bennett waiting for his chance to break in. Sam looks to be the best center prospect the Flames have drafted and has all the skills to be a great pivot in his own right. Markus Granlund is a very under rated player in the middle, but I think he ends up moving to the wing over the next year, if he remains with the Flames. A wild card in this mix is Mark Jankowski. He plays in a very defensive oriented system, and excels in that aspect of the game, but still displays silky hands that make you wonder how he would do in a more offensive system. Those four centers all have pretty good upside. Then there is the depth in the system. Jooris, Arnold and Shore provide some good role players at the position down the road. Definitely a position of strength and a check mark on the formula.
Goaltender
I think we have seen a little bit of the future with Joni Ortio stepping in and playing some outstanding games this season. He's like a younger Kiprusoff in that he doesn't get rattled. There is still some room for improvement, but he shows a ton of promise. The Flames also have a really good one in John Gillies at Providence. He's one of the dominant goaltenders at the NCAA level. He's big and technically sound. I could see him turning pro this spring as he doesn't have much left to prove at the college level and the Flames should have a spot on the farm next season. Thinking longer term recent 2nd rounder, and first goaltender taken in the 2014 draft, Mason MacDonald provides some impressive depth. There is no guarantee with goaltenders, but the Flames have three excellent prospects in development and another probable check mark on the formula.
Defenseman
The Flames have a great young blueliner in TJ Brodie. People forget how young he is and how long it takes to develop a good defender. Brodie is great talent and a core player moving forward. The common refrain is the Flames are thin on the blueline and don't have the futures they would like. I think we're in better shape that we think as there are some really under rated players in the system. The guys normally mentioned are Wotherspoon and Sieloff but I look at our current roster and see some parallels in the system. John Gilmour is a terribly unsung player, one that reminds me of a young Mark Giordano. Very similar skill set and similar poise on the Providence blueline. In the same college conference is Brandon Hickey who reminds you of TJ Brodie. He's a silky smooth skater and has a hockey IQ well beyond his years. Another good defenseman on the way is Ryan Culkin. He's got a very impressive rookie season going in the AHL. A wild card in the mix is Russian Rushan Rafikov. He can play the game any way you want and brings an edge that is lacking on the current roster. It is unlikely that the Flames see a number one defenseman out of this group, but with Brodie on the team they may not have to reach that lofty heights. Is this good enough to earn a check mark? Not yet, but with the right development a possibility.
The formula is said to lead to success. Eakins was emphatic about the makeup of the Oilers being counter to the formula as being partially responsible for their lack of success. Looking at the Flames system you can't help but think they have followed a solid plan in building through the formula. What do you think? Are the Flames on the right track?
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Build through centre depth, strength on the blue line or a true number one goalie, all are viable options. The only thing that won't work is building around a winger or a strong collection of wingers.
Flames couldn't build around Iginla, Ovechkin hasn't taken the Capitals anywhere, Jagr never did anything when teams tried to build just around him. Etc etc. Could be wrong be wrong but can't think of any modern team that's been built through a wing position.
The last example I can think of is Anaheim in the days when they were still the Mighty Ducks. That team had a decent amount of success with two wingers as its marquee players – Kariya and Selanne. Any old centre who could be defensively responsible and win some faceoffs was good enough to play between them. But they never had a sniff at the Cup during that period, and I'm sure they would have been more successful if one of those two had been a centre instead of a winger.
The Boston Bruins put together some really strong teams built around a defenceman and a winger – Ray Bourque and Cam Neely. Again, they never won the Cup, but they made the finals twice and ran up against Edmonton teams that seemed to have inherited the Blues Brothers' ‘mission from God’.
Ideally, you want four key players: a defenceman, a goalie, and a centre-and-winger combo. Even Gretzky wouldn't have been the same without Kurri. Of course, the Flames look like they have that part of the formula down pat. If Johnny Gaudreau turns out to have good chemistry with Bennett, that could be one of the top duos in the league for years to come.
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The greatest thing about centremen depth is that they can still play wing if there's no space left down the middle.
I mean we could ostensibly run an all centre top 6 someday (assuming all our wingers are out on injury) of Bennett-Backlund-Jooris + Granlund-Monahan-Colborne and not lose a step(well, I mean, having Johnny out would be pretty bad). Develop them as centers where they are shown to improve defensive responsibility, faceoff skills, and roaming offensive value, and their strong wing is a cinch for them.
I also agree on Brandon Hickey. I'm not sure how much value we can put into the stats of anybody playing with Jack Eichel, but I think he's going to be a real player for the Flames. I also see Wotherspoon as being a very solid NHLer. This year's draft seems ripe with potential D prospects, so I hope we stay in that ~15 range for the pick. No better place to learn than under Giordano.
The Flames' drafting + development seems to have really gotten Detroit-calibur.
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Last edited by GranteedEV; 02-02-2015 at 09:57 PM.
I think our biggest future weakness is on defence, that's why I want us to draft one with our 1st this year. We have some decent prospects in (in my order) Wotherspoon, Hickey, Culkin, Rafikov and Kulak but except for Wotherspoon they come with some question marks.
At centre and left wing we're pretty well stocked but could use another big right wing with scoring ability. At RW in the future we have Poirier and Smith with a possibility in Carroll.
Acquiring another young goalie would be a nice idea as well. We only have 5 goalies that are either with the big team or have possibilities of one day being there. We should be able to sign one, there are sometimes a few that have run out of time with one team and are ready for newer pastures as goalies may not be ready until their mid 20s. Maybe look overseas as we did with Ramo as Ramo may not be back, someone willing to take a two way contract. Gillies may turn pro this summer but I wouldn't count on him to play in the NHL in case we have an injury. He is young and may end up in the ECHL which for a goalie is a good learning ground.
I think our biggest future weakness is on defence, that's why I want us to draft one with our 1st this year. We have some decent prospects in (in my order) Wotherspoon, Hickey, Culkin, Rafikov and Kulak but except for Wotherspoon they come with some question marks.
Don't forget Ramage. I'm pretty sure he's a legit NHLer with more AHL experience, though bottom pairing tier.
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Build through centre depth, strength on the blue line or a true number one goalie, all are viable options. The only thing that won't work is building around a winger or a strong collection of wingers.
Flames couldn't build around Iginla, Ovechkin hasn't taken the Capitals anywhere, Jagr never did anything when teams tried to build just around him. Etc etc. Could be wrong be wrong but can't think of any modern team that's been built through a wing position.
I dunno, we were pretty close to a cup... I can see how C/D/G are more important positions, but Iginla was pretty impressive.
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I agree with most of it though, if things continue to progress we should be in good shape.
Colborne is looking like a solid bottom six centre, that can step up into a top 6 role. He's not as good defensively as Backlund, but obviously brings the bigger body.
Bennett-Monahan-Backlund-Colborne.
Very solid. If Bennett develops into a true #1, that's about the best depth you can ask for. 4 great centres that all provide something slightly different. Bennett is the high end skill guy. Monahan is the clutch goal scorer. Backlund is the great two way player. Colborne is the big bruising body that mucks it up.
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Colborne is looking like a solid bottom six centre, that can step up into a top 6 role. He's not as good defensively as Backlund, but obviously brings the bigger body.
Bennett-Monahan-Backlund-Colborne.
Very solid. If Bennett develops into a true #1, that's about the best depth you can ask for. 4 great centres that all provide something slightly different. Bennett is the high end skill guy. Monahan is the clutch goal scorer. Backlund is the great two way player. Colborne is the big bruising body that mucks it up.
A certain guy with 10 goals in 37 games this season would like to remind you he's awesome too.
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Don't forget Ramage. I'm pretty sure he's a legit NHLer with more AHL experience, though bottom pairing tier.
Ramage is in tough to make the parent club. He's 23 already so he'll probably need to make the jump in the next two seasons or become a AHL lifer.
Giordano and Brodie are taking two of the spots. I think Wotherspoon will be a permanent NHLer next season. Good chance Kris Russell will be re-signed to an extension. Wideman, Smid and Engelland are all sign for another 2 seasons after this one. I would rank Culkin, Kulak and Hickey higher than Ramage for NHL potential. Sieloff would be battling Ramage for a bottom pairing spot as well.
Bennett (skills to be #1)
Monahan (on pace for 28 goals in his 2nd season)
Backlund (10pts in 10gp since return)
Jooris (10 goals in 36gp - 23 goal pace)
Granlund (point per game pace until the team went on extended losing streak)
Colborne (20pts in 33gp in 2nd season)
Stajan (responsible depth centre)
Shore (NHL ready centre)
I've probably typed out the list a dozen times before, but it doesn't get old.
Why does nobody see Monahan as being at the top of the line up? He's shown solid improvement this year over last and he's still only 20. If things go as they are right now he will hit around ~50 points. I don't think it's a stretch to think he will improve still.
Is it just that he doesn't dangle and make pretty plays? Is it crazy to think Monahan will still end up being a better player than Bennett? They don't have crazy different junior stats (Bennett's are higher, but was on a much better team)
Why does nobody see Monahan as being at the top of the line up? He's shown solid improvement this year over last and he's still only 20. If things go as they are right now he will hit around ~50 points. I don't think it's a stretch to think he will improve still.
Is it just that he doesn't dangle and make pretty plays? Is it crazy to think Monahan will still end up being a better player than Bennett? They don't have crazy different junior stats (Bennett's are higher, but was on a much better team)
I'm sure people think Bennett has higher ceiling in terms of production. Can't speak for others but myself I see Monahan and Bennett as anchoring our top 6 in the future, it doesn't matter which is #1 and #2. Top six wingers will be mixed and matched with them until chemistry is found.
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I'm sure people think Bennett has higher ceiling in terms of production. Can't speak for others but myself I see Monahan and Bennett as anchoring our top 6 in the future, it doesn't matter which is #1 and #2. Top six wingers will be mixed and matched with them until chemistry is found.
Good point, line-ups are never the same for more than a few games. I suppose the questions should be reframed into who will be the most productive.
"Can't build around wingers" is a bit of a self-fulfilling, as top forwards are directed towards the centre position as a result of this idea.
I think top forwards are directed to the centre position because it is a much more difficult position to play. In other words, it makes sense that a team's best players will be playing with the most responsibility, and in the most difficult position. I don't agree that this is altogether self-fulfilling.
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The Formula and the Flames
