How hard is it to draft a blue-chip D-Man?

[JohnnyTitan]

** Update: Flames trade for Dougie Hamilton. Nice work Tree!! **


** Update: Flames sign Kenney Morrison. Treliving must have been reading this thread!! News Article Here **


So I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and thought I'd throw out some historical information and let people much smarter than me debate.

Assumptions:
- The Flames are being built for 2017 and beyond.
- The Flames seem to have qualified 5/6 D-Men in the system. Maybe even better than that? (Culkin, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Cundari).
- The Flames will need a top-4 guy by 2017.

Where did our current top-4 come from?
Giordano: Undrafted
Brodie: #114 (4th round) in 2008
Russell: #67 (3rd round) in 2005
Wideman: #241 (8th round) in 2002
(Crazy, eh?)

So the question: Can we draft a D-Man this year and get top-4 caliber play out of him by 2017? How has that worked out in the past?

See data below and add your thoughts. I went all the way back to 2009. Interesting note, the highest paid D-Man in the league right now is Shea Weber who was picked #49 (2nd round) in 2003!!

Is picking defensemen a crap-shoot? I guess picking any position is, but if the Flames invest in one of the top-5 defensemen picked in the 2015 draft, can it work out? Or should we just wait a couple years and sign a UFA or two?


2014
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 1 Florida Aaron Ekblad D Barrie Colts [OHL] 37 22
1 7 Carolina Haydn Fleury D Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
1 14 Dallas Julius Honka D Swift Current Broncos [WHL]
1 17 Philadelphia Travis Sanheim D Calgary Hitmen [WHL]
1 19 Tampa Bay Anthony DeAngelo D Sarnia Sting [OHL]


2013
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 4 Nashville Seth Jones D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 115 35
1 7 Edmonton Darnell Nurse D Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL] 2 0
1 8 Buffalo Rasmus Ristolainen D TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 72 11
1 11 Philadelphia Samuel Morin D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
1 13 Winnipeg Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
1 15 NY Islanders Ryan Pulock D Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
1 16 Buffalo Nikita Zadorov D London Knights [OHL] 36 7
1 18 San Jose Mirco Mueller D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 24 3

2012
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 2 Columbus Ryan Murray D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 70 21
1 4 NY Islanders Griffin Reinhart D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 8 1
1 5 Toronto Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 112 39
1 6 Anaheim Hampus Lindholm D Rogle BK [Swe-1] 118 46
1 7 Minnesota Mathew Dumba D Red Deer Rebels [WHL] 33 6
1 8 Pittsburgh Derrick Pouliot D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 7 3
1 9 Winnipeg Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 96 41
1 10 Tampa Bay Slater Koekkoek D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
1 15 Ottawa Cody Ceci D Ottawa 67's [OHL] 87 19
1 22 Pittsburgh Olli Maatta D London Knights [OHL] 98 38

2011
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 4 New Jersey Adam Larsson D Skelleftea AIK [SEL] 151 32
1 9 Boston Dougie Hamilton D Niagara IceDogs [OHL] 146 64
1 10 Minnesota Jonas Brodin D Farjestads BK Karlstad [SEL] 150 34
1 11 Colorado Duncan Siemens D Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
1 12 Carolina Ryan Murphy D Kitchener Rangers [OHL] 61 13
1 14 Dallas Jamie Oleksiak D Northeastern University [H-East] 48 9
1 17 Montreal Nathan Beaulieu D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] 47 8
1 19 Edmonton Oscar Klefbom D Farjestads BK Karlstad [SEL] 35 5
1 20 Phoenix Connor Murphy D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 63 13
1 23 Pittsburgh Joe Morrow D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 15 1
1 25 Toronto Stuart Percy D Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL] 8 3

2010
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 3 Florida Erik Gudbranson D Kingston Frontenacs [OHL] 204 26
1 10 NY Rangers Dylan McIlrath D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 3 0
1 12 Anaheim Cam Fowler D Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 305 135
1 13 Phoenix Brandon Gormley D Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL] 16 3
1 15 Los Angeles Derek Forbort D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
1 22 Montreal Jarred Tinordi D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 39 6
1 23 Buffalo Mark Pysyk D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 67 13

2009
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 2 Tampa Bay Victor Hedman D MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SEL] 356 164
1 6 Phoenix Oliver Ekman-Larsson D Leksands IF [Swe-1] 296 129
1 9 Ottawa Jared Cowen D Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 189 40
1 11 Nashville Ryan Ellis D Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 182 61
1 12 NY Islanders Calvin de Haan D Oshawa Generals [OHL] 87 25
1 14 Florida Dmitri Kulikov D Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 346 110
1 16 Minnesota Nick Leddy D Eden Prairie H.S. (Minn.) 297 111
1 17 St. Louis David Rundblad D Skelleftea AIK [SEL] 75 15
1 21 Columbus John Moore D Chicago Steel [USHL] 196 32
1 23 Calgary Tim Erixon D Skelleftea AIK [SEL] 75 13
1 28 Chicago Dylan Olsen D Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL] 108 20
1 30 Pittsburgh Simon Despres D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] 123 26

[Robbob]

Rarely will you get legit top D pairing guy make it to UFA (off the top of my head Suter and Chara are the only ones I can think of). Most of the time in UFA you over pay and slot them into that role. It takes time to develop dmen so if even if one is picked up in this draft he may not be ready until after 2017. Good news for the Flames is that any defensive prospect brought in will be sheltered.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by JohnnyTitan

Is picking defensemen a crap-shoot? I guess picking any position is, but if the Flames invest in one of the top-5 defensemen picked in the 2015 draft, can it work out? Or should we just wait a couple years and sign a UFA or two?

I would be very surprised if any top 4 defenseman hit the UFA market in the next half decade

[Erick Estrada]

It's hard but you have to keep chipping away at the draft to find them because they are rarely available in free agency.

[JohnnyTitan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyTitan

2013
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 4 Nashville Seth Jones D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 115 35
1 7 Edmonton Darnell Nurse D Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL] 2 0
1 8 Buffalo Rasmus Ristolainen D TPS Turku [SM-liiga] 72 11
1 11 Philadelphia Samuel Morin D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
1 13 Winnipeg Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
1 15 NY Islanders Ryan Pulock D Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
1 16 Buffalo Nikita Zadorov D London Knights [OHL] 36 7
1 18 San Jose Mirco Mueller D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 24 3

So in essence, this may be the most relevant draft to evaluate in terms of where the 2015 draft could be in 2017. (2 years ago).

Not surprising, but it really takes more time than this. Jones is pretty awesome and I think most people feel Nurse will be great someday and pretty good next year. Morin and Morrissey were good in the World Juniors but haven't even played an NHL game yet.

[GioforPM]

Just a quick scan tells me that a highly drafted defenceman has a pretty good shot at being a good NHLer. No worse chances than a forward, really. Darnell Nurse may turn out to be the best of the Oilers' top picks.

[Bingo]

I think you pretty much arrived at your answer ...

select a balance of players at all positions and how your surprises even out positionally.

Duhatchek pointed out recently that the "bust" seems to be less common in the last ten years that in previous draft regimes because the world has become smaller, scouting better, and ways to rank players more sophisticated.

So you see the 2013 and 2012 lists as pretty much spot on in order.

The biggest thing with dmen though is their time to become a stud is about twice as long as a forward, so too many teams give up on them and move them to other organizations

Look at Hedman, ... shame he got hurt this year because he was looking all world. Either way well worth the wait.

The Oilers are the poster boys for how bad things fall when you don't find players deeper in the draft, and defensemen are no different.

The Flames have Wotherspoon and Sieloff on the radar (2nd rounders), but also have Brodie, Rafikov, and Culkin from deeper in the draft.

[JohnnyTitan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyTitan

2012
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 2 Columbus Ryan Murray D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 70 21
1 4 NY Islanders Griffin Reinhart D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 8 1
1 5 Toronto Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 112 39
1 6 Anaheim Hampus Lindholm D Rogle BK [Swe-1] 118 46
1 7 Minnesota Mathew Dumba D Red Deer Rebels [WHL] 33 6
1 8 Pittsburgh Derrick Pouliot D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 7 3
1 9 Winnipeg Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 96 41
1 10 Tampa Bay Slater Koekkoek D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
1 15 Ottawa Cody Ceci D Ottawa 67's [OHL] 87 19
1 22 Pittsburgh Olli Maatta D London Knights [OHL] 98 38

So going back another year, to 2012 and it's STILL not long enough to judge. I think Morgan Rielly has been as good as a Leaf can be, right? Trouba is working out well for the Jets and I'm sure the Isles are still high on Reinhart. Dont' know much about Murray on Columbus. Anyone?

It's not a surprise, but I'm just trying to ascertain:
1) How valuable are the D-Men we already have. Seems like top-4 are HARD to come by
2) How long you have to wait on these guys. I'm starting to think if we're going to be serious contenders in 2017, it has to be with guys already in the AHL or guys we trade for and not guys we draft. (Not that you stop drafting prospects...but we just can't expect them to play a top-4 role in the next five years).

[Hemi-Cuda]

Not a fan of picking a defenceman in the first round specifically because of that list you posted, unless they are a clear cut talent like Ekblad or Hanifin this year. If they haven't done enough to impress for a top 5 ranking then pick a forward that's easier to project and save the defence picks for later rounds. Same thing for goaltenders, they are all over the map when it comes to development so using a high pick is almost never worth it

The defencemen that are picked in the first round past the top 5 are usually the guys that can put up lots of points from the blue line and teams figure as long as they have that they can work on the defensive game. As we've seen though that's a lot harder to accomplish in practice, and just like forwards a lot of young d-men can't transition their offense to an NHL game.

[GioforPM]

2012
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 2 Columbus Ryan Murray D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 70 21
1 4 NY Islanders Griffin Reinhart D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 8 1
1 5 Toronto Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 112 39
1 6 Anaheim Hampus Lindholm D Rogle BK [Swe-1] 118 46
1 7 Minnesota Mathew Dumba D Red Deer Rebels [WHL] 33 6
1 8 Pittsburgh Derrick Pouliot D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 7 3
1 9 Winnipeg Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 96 41
1 10 Tampa Bay Slater Koekkoek D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
1 15 Ottawa Cody Ceci D Ottawa 67's [OHL] 87 19
1 22 Pittsburgh Olli Maatta D London Knights [OHL] 98 38

How many of these guys are top 4 quality? Quite a few. Reilly, Murray, Trouba, Lindholm for sure. Reinhart almost for sure. I think Maata has done well, and Ceci has played a lot. Dumba hasn't made it yet.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Duhatchek pointed out recently that the "bust" seems to be less common in the last ten years that in previous draft regimes because the world has become smaller, scouting better, and ways to rank players more sophisticated.

well, that's because the Oilers have been collecting all of them.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

2012
RoundNum.Drafted ByPlayerPosDrafted FromGPPts
1 2 Columbus Ryan Murray D Everett Silvertips [WHL] 70 21
1 4 NY Islanders Griffin Reinhart D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] 8 1
1 5 Toronto Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 112 39
1 6 Anaheim Hampus Lindholm D Rogle BK [Swe-1] 118 46
1 7 Minnesota Mathew Dumba D Red Deer Rebels [WHL] 33 6
1 8 Pittsburgh Derrick Pouliot D Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 7 3
1 9 Winnipeg Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 96 41
1 10 Tampa Bay Slater Koekkoek D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
1 15 Ottawa Cody Ceci D Ottawa 67's [OHL] 87 19
1 22 Pittsburgh Olli Maatta D London Knights [OHL] 98 38

How many of these guys are top 4 quality? Quite a few.

Too early to tell yet. Just look at the 2009 draft, only now are guys like Hedman and Ekman-Larsson being realized as top 4 d-men. Seems like you need to wait a good 5 years after a draft to see real quality defencemen emerge

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Too early to tell yet. Just look at the 2009 draft, only now are guys like Hedman and Ekman-Larsson being realized as top 4 d-men. Seems like you need to wait a good 5 years after a draft to see real quality defencemen emerge

I edited, but over half are playing top 4 minutes already.

[sureLoss]

2012 maybe an anomaly though. It was a draft noted for having depth in defencemen.

[remember2004]

Well Hanafin is the best D this year and is projected to go in the top 3 so we better stop

winning so we can grab him LOL All jokes aside defenemen in general take longer to

develop so anyone regardless of draft position we will have to wait. Look at Seth Jones,

he isn't exactly lighting it up now but give him a years and he'll be a top 2 D for sure.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I edited, but over half are playing top 4 minutes already.

So is Justin Schultz, but that doesn't make him top 4 quality. There's not much competition on the Toronto or Columbus blue lines so getting those minutes seems to be a case of "just don't suck" vs earning them. Lindholm is quality though, I'll give you that

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by remember2004

Well Hanafin is the best D this year and is projected to go in the top 3 so we better stop

winning so we can grab him LOL All jokes aside defenemen in general take longer to

develop so anyone regardless of draft position we will have to wait. Look at Seth Jones,

he isn't exactly lighting it up now but give him a years and he'll be a top 2 D for sure.

I think a guy like Erik Johnson (1st overall in 2006) shows that there is simply no such thing as a "sure thing" when it comes to defense

[JohnnyTitan]

Just to kinda-sorta flip the argument, here's the age of Canada's 2014 Olympic Team:
Keith (1983)
Hamhuis (1982)
Weber (1985)
Doughty (1989)
Bouwmeester (1983)
Pietrangelo (1990)
Vlasic (1987)
Subban (1989) (8th - didn't play much)

So 30 years old seems to be a rough median. The best defensemen in the country tend to be drafted ~ 12 years ago. Wow.

By quick comparison, 10 of the forwards were less then 30.

I realize this is all confirming information. We know this already!!

Much of the reason our rebuild is ahead of schedule is how we've acquired our top-4. And maybe we shouldn't be so quick to want Wideman gone after his current contract if he's still performing in a top-4 capacity!!

[albertGQ]

How has Roland Mackewon looked this year? He was who I wanted the Flames to nab at 34 instead of Mason Mcdonald.

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I think a guy like Erik Johnson (1st overall in 2006) shows that there is simply no such thing as a "sure thing" when it comes to defense

I think that's actually a better example of how long it takes for some defencemen to develop. He's been playing some really good hockey for Colorado the last couple of seasons.