Not to worry; this won't last says Myrtle

[Bingo]

Globe

But almost every other indicator has them playing over their heads and ready for a fall.

Fans have to hope it’s not nearly as gruesome as Toronto’s 2-12-0 finish was a year ago.

The 2014-15 Leafs!

[EldrickOnIce]

Hard to argue, tbqh.

[SportsJunky]

I am always impressed with how the topic of the article is really just a ruse to write another Leafs article in disguise.

[Arya Stark]

Really wish advanced stats would die in a fire.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Phew…glad to hear that it won't last. I was starting to get my hopes up!

It's so easy to discount us at the moment, but unlike the Leafs, we play defense, fairly well too.

We've had a soft goal against from our goalies in each of the last 6 games, but yeah, our goaltending is the only reason we're winning.

We "score by committee", yet we have the top offense in the Western Conference.

We have unsustainable possession numbers, yet possession is indicated by shot attempts, not amount of time the puck is possessed. What if you hold onto the puck longer for a better shot attempt, rather than firing the puck right away when you get the first chance?

Nobody who has watched the Flames with any regularity would say this is unsustainable. Even the high level of energy is sustainable if you look at the way the coaching staff maintains the practice level. Sure there will be lulls in the season, but nothing to suggest the Flames will drop off the map entirely.

Get used to it media, the Flames are actually a good team. Aaron Ward called it.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

Really wish advanced stats would die in a fire.

Right - I tend to agree.
But you can't (or it's certainly unlikely to) keep having success when you are continually being outshot at even strength. There is nothing 'advanced' about that.
Avs were a team, last year, who bucked that trend all year. Gave people the impression they were a better team than they are.
This year, not so much

[alan21]

Came in here expecting some random reporter based in the east talking about the flames.

If anyone can make things last, it's the leafs.

1967.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Have to love the advanced stats dip####s. Anyone who has watched the games knows this is not a team reliant on goaltending or has indeed forced the play in the offensive zone. Possession stats are so over rated. This isn't football where you can grind out a ground game. A lot of dump and chase hockey results in poor possession stats, but can lead to a boatload of goals. Advanced stats are no good.

[Tinordi]

When criticising advanced stats please continue to demonstrate limited or no understanding of the stats themselves and the arguments as to why they're useful.

[Arya Stark]

The Avs had zero structure last year and were playing pond hockey run and gun most nights. The Flames aren't comparable to the Avs or the Leafs to be quite honest.

[Arya Stark]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

When criticising advanced stats please continue to demonstrate limited or no understanding of the stats themselves and the arguments as to why they're useful.

The advanced stats guys have already showed they have no understanding of how useful or how of little use they actually are.

[Textcritic]

^
He's not wrong. The Flames almost certainly will not end the season scoring an average of +3 goals/game, and with a +.930 even strength save percentage.

Having said that, we are already starting to see a regression towards the statistical mean that he is describing, and yet the game results are the same. For example, in the Flames first 10 games they allowed +30 shots against six times—with the other team hitting +40 in four of these. In their last ten, it has happened four times, with a single game high of 34. Similarly, in their first ten they recorded +30 shots on goal only once, but have managed the feat four times in their past ten. In their last ten games they have been outshot by their opponent six times, and by only +4 shots in four of them.

The way I see it, he team is playing demonstrably better in recent games, and enough so to suggest that they do not need to sustain unsustainable metrics in order to succeed.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

^
He's not wrong. The Flames almost certainly will not end the season scoring an average of +3 goals/game, and with a +.930 even strength save percentage.

Having said that, we are already starting to see a regression towards the statistical mean that he is describing, and yet the game results are the same. For example, in the Flames first 10 games they allowed +30 shots against six times—with the other team hitting +40 in four of these. In their last ten, it has happened four times, with a single game high of 34. Similarly, in their first ten they recorded +30 shots on goal only once, but have managed the feat four times in their past ten. In their last ten games they have been outshot by their opponent six times, and by only +4 shots in four of them.

The way I see it, he team is playing demonstrably better in recent games, and enough so to suggest that they do not need to sustain unsustainable metrics in order to succeed.

^Thanks. This.

[madmike]

I agree their points are somewhat inflated. But the Flames are nowhere near as bad at "controlling play" as the Leafs were last year. So I doubt the Flames fall will be as drastic.

[Flames89]

Meh. Last season the Leafs were getting outshot 2 to 1 every game.
The flames this year have been outshot 11 games out of the 19 games played, and 4 of those were in the first 5 games.
Our net "Shots For" versus "Against" are 504-559, and after those first 5 games (which included the crazy Chicago game when we hit for 50 shots) our SF vs SA was 121-183. So since then, our SF and SA have been basically even.

Mirtle last year "called it", as the Leafs were allowing WAYYYY too many shots and the law of averages had to catch up. This is not the reason for the Flames surprising performance.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...ticle15654201/

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Globe



The 2014-15 Leafs!

You know what other team has a high PDO and poor possession numbers? Montreal. Why aren't they going to fail?
Toronto? Tampa?

[PeteMoss]

In 'close' situations - the Flames PDO is 9th in the league.

[Arya Stark]

Anyone who watched the Leafs last year knew it was coming because they were being heavily outplayed almost every game. Literally almost every game. They had their ok games in the mix but even friends who are Leaf fans were not sold even when they were one of the best teams in the NHL in the standings.

And anyone who has watched the Flames this year knows we've been heavily outplayed twice, Chicago and St. Louis.

We've dominated the Canadiens, the number one team in the NHL, twice, and have played Tampa really well twice.

In pretty much every game we've played we've skated with the other team and have been right in it and not only because of goaltending. There were nights where Ramo and Hiller barely had to make any hard saves because the shots were coming from the outside and the defence was keeping the second chances away.

And did the Leafs have Gio/Brodie or a boneheaded captain who is one of the lazier players on their team?

[PeteMoss]

And the Flames goaltending has been highly average this year - 14th in team save percentage.

[locsofblu]

Just another ###### to prove wrong.