[News] 2023/2024 Calder Top 3: Bedard, Faber, Hughes

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Faber is an absolutely great player. What he did in Minnesota this year cannot be understated. I do think he will take a vote or three.


But Bedard got told to go out and be the only thing in Chicago worth watching and he went out and did that.

I agree with this.

For the record, I didn't say Bedard wouldn't win the Calder. (not directed at you, just stating in general)

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

21 in D years is probably about the equivellant of 18 in F years.

I just think Faber brings more to the table in terms of what you need to win. I'm not saying Bedard isn't an awesome player... I'm just saying I think Faber gives a team a better chance to win. To me, winning will always trump personal stats.

Trade Bedard to the Wild for Faber, and I bet Minny wins more games last year than they did with Faber.
Bedard is a player that has elevated entire teams. He just was on a very bad Hawks team last year. That's not his fault.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Trade Bedard to the Wild for Faber, and I bet Minny wins more games last year than they did with Faber.
Bedard is a player that has elevated entire teams. He just was on a very bad Hawks team last year. That's not his fault.

Bad play begets bad results

Having the worst plus minus… well, kind of is his fault

That’s the stuff that drags down whole teams

Jason Dickinson again was +4

[Jiri Hrdina]

And the year before he was -29
Did he suddenly become a better player
Or maybe plus/minus is useless

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

And the year before he was -29
Did he suddenly become a better player
Or maybe plus/minus is useless

Especially for an offensive rookie on a terrible team. Mario was -35 in his rookie year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Lol. It is a counting stat based in fact.

On for ~84 GA and 40 GF. It is not useless, it is exactly what it is

He had some highlight reel plays for sure and the team did way worse 5 on 5 with him on the ice than off

It’s really that simple

Especially when you’re the worst on the team. It’s not him being impacted by everybody else

When you watched him in junior, he put butts in seats and outscored his problems. Some of us suspected it would take time to adjust from no defensive responsibility at all to being well rounded in the highest league (and hilariously you had a lot of people getting really bent out of shape about even that)

Nobody can deny the skill but his team was way worse with him than everyone else. Many players were in the barely positive through -15/-20 range

Whatever, he’ll get the trophy. We all knew it in September

[DoubleK]

I'm surprised to see Hughes in the top 3.

When the votes are release, it will probably be the top 2 and then the next dude.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

And the year before he was -29
Did he suddenly become a better player
Or maybe plus/minus is useless

The year they tanked for Bedsy. Sounds like leadership

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Lol. It is a counting stat based in fact.

On for ~84 GA and 40 GF. It is not useless, it is exactly what it is

He had some highlight reel plays for sure and the team did way worse 5 on 5 with him on the ice than off

It’s really that simple

Especially when you’re the worst on the team. It’s not him being impacted by everybody else

When you watched him in junior, he put butts in seats and outscored his problems. Some of us suspected it would take time to adjust from no defensive responsibility at all to being well rounded in the highest league (and hilariously you had a lot of people getting really bent out of shape about even that)

Nobody can deny the skill but his team was way worse with him than everyone else. Many players were in the barely positive through -15/-20 range

Whatever, he’ll get the trophy. We all knew it in September

Yet, when he was injured, Chicago couldn’t score for dear life, nor could they win.

When he came back, while they were bad, they actually started winning games and climbed ahead of SJ.

The Hawks were not way worse with Bedard on the ice.

Plus/minus tells a partial story. It’s very unreliable.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Yet, when he was injured, Chicago couldn’t score for dear life, nor could they win.

When he came back, while they were bad, they actually started winning games and climbed ahead of SJ.

The Hawks were not way worse with Bedard on the ice.

Plus/minus tells a partial story. It’s very unreliable.

Your story tells a partial story. Unfortunately it is anecdotal. Statistical noise, basically

3-10-1 (.250 point percentage) without Bedsy compared to a 20-43-5 record (.330 point percentage) with him

They were literally one win (4-9-1 = .320) off of a pretty much identical win%

Even statistics are expressed in confidence intervals 19 times out of 20

Sorry, my friend. Sample size considered, this is insignificant. The team was pretty much equally bad in terms of scores with and without him

Naturally, he should have improved (and likely did) as the year went on

But comparing historically low win percents with and without him, he’s clearly not a difference maker in a positive way… yet

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Your story tells a partial story. Unfortunately it is anecdotal. Statistical noise, basically

3-10-1 (.250 point percentage) without Bedsy compared to a 20-43-5 record (.330 point percentage) with him

They were literally one win (4-9-1 = .320) off of a pretty much identical win%

Even statistics are expressed in confidence intervals 19 times out of 20

Sorry, my friend. Sample size considered, this is insignificant. The team was pretty much equally bad in terms of scores with and without him

Naturally, he should have improved (and likely did) as the year went on

But comparing historically low win percents with and without him, he’s clearly not a difference maker in a positive way… yet

You need to count the game he got injured in as a missed game, as it was the 4th shift.

The difference beaten when he played vs. When he didn’t comes out to 17 points over full season based on that recalculation.

Plus, two of the we wins when he didn’t play were against bottom feeders SJ and Calgary.

He was a difference maker in every way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Lol. It is a counting stat based in fact.

On for ~84 GA and 40 GF. It is not useless, it is exactly what it is

He had some highlight reel plays for sure and the team did way worse 5 on 5 with him on the ice than off

It’s really that simple

Especially when you’re the worst on the team. It’s not him being impacted by everybody else

When you watched him in junior, he put butts in seats and outscored his problems. Some of us suspected it would take time to adjust from no defensive responsibility at all to being well rounded in the highest league (and hilariously you had a lot of people getting really bent out of shape about even that)

Nobody can deny the skill but his team was way worse with him than everyone else. Many players were in the barely positive through -15/-20 range

Whatever, he’ll get the trophy. We all knew it in September

If +/- is considered a “counting stat” it’s the only one which tells you nothing about what a player did to get the stat aside from stepping onto the ice. A goal or an assist says the player contributed in some way to a goal being scored for the team. A minus says nothing about what the player did. He could have played his position perfectly, he could have barely gotten on the ice on a line change, he could have scored an own goal. Who knows based on the stat? Good offensive players on poor teams are going to rack up minuses just off of ENG goals against.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The year they tanked for Bedsy. Sounds like leadership

Sounds like you are only interested in data that supports your opinion.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Your story tells a partial story. Unfortunately it is anecdotal. Statistical noise, basically

3-10-1 (.250 point percentage) without Bedsy compared to a 20-43-5 record (.330 point percentage) with him

They were literally one win (4-9-1 = .320) off of a pretty much identical win%

Even statistics are expressed in confidence intervals 19 times out of 20

Sorry, my friend. Sample size considered, this is insignificant. The team was pretty much equally bad in terms of scores with and without him

Naturally, he should have improved (and likely did) as the year went on

But comparing historically low win percents with and without him, he’s clearly not a difference maker in a positive way… yet

Seems like the Hawks were worse without Bedard/Dickinson on the ice.

In 100 minutes Bedard/Dickinson were 3-3 GF/GA when on ice together.

Bedard was 34-64 in 900 minutes without Dickinson. 35 GF%
Dickinson was 42-33 in 900 minutes without Bedard. 56 GF%

Hawks were 39-102 in 2000 minutes without either. 28 GF%

Not sure what was going on with Dickinson. Probably luck, as his expected GF was 45%. Bedard's was 42% and the Hawks without either player were 40%.

[SuperMatt18]

I can't remember now but I recall seeing some stats that showed that Bedard probably had some of the toughest deployment of any 18 year old rookie in NHL history.

High quality of competition, low quality of teammate, and wasn't given soft minutes.

[Enoch Root]

yeah, who they are being deployed against, matters

[automaton 3]

From what I observed in junior, Bedard was not expected to play much D. It is not surprising that there are elements to his game that are a work in progress. In particular as he is not being sheltered.

He is young and has phenomenal skills and I have no doubt his 200 foot game will continue to improve.

[DeluxeMoustache]

-44 prorates to -53 over 82 games

Worst in the league, essentially

40 ES points, -44

Zary 30 ES points, +12, 5th on his bottom 10 team

Can’t believe how desperately you all want to defend one dimensional Bedard when Zary played like a grown up in front of your very eyes

Shame on all of you

[Snuffleupagus]

Most didn't like the Fiala trade for Minny and Faber now looks great even as a 1 for 1 but if they can get Yurov to come over from the KHL it could be really good for Minny.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Most didn't like the Fiala trade for Minny and Faber now looks great even as a 1 for 1 but if they can get Yurov to come over from the KHL it could be really good for Minny.

In a way that Fiala deal for L.A. has a lot of parallels to the deal that brought Hamilton to Calgary. Team has a bit of a surprise playoff appearance and gets aggressive right away to bring in a younger guy needing a new contract from a team who's tight to the cap.

Fiala has been good, but Minnesota getting multiple young assets might help them more. I suppose L.A. maybe felt urgency to get better quicker with Doughty and Kopitar still there and being past 30. But it does seem like the Kings could have taken a couple more years using those types of assets to build up their team, than look to add in the veterans to supplement an emerging young group starting this offseason.