The Hawks don’t call it Corsi or Fenwick. They have their own terminology and methodology. Bowman hinted that the fundamental goal of the Hawks’ analytics is the same as the more commonly accepted ones, but he wouldn’t go into any more specifics.
“What we do is different,” Bowman said. “I think it’s better, but I guess it’s a matter of opinion. It’s also a competitive advantage. That stuff’s readily available, but what we have is more proprietary. Which is why I’m really trying not to talk about it. I think what we do gives us an advantage over other teams. They might say I’m wrong, but we’re pretty confident that what we have works.”
Bowman — then a 29-year-old with a famous last name and a business background — actually got his foot in the door with the Hawks in 2001 by bringing some statistical analysis to a franchise that hardly had any. He started simply, with coaches rating players on a 1-5 scale each game, charting the ratings over the course of 10-game spans. But Bowman quickly learned that the ratings were flawed — subject to a coach’s affection for a player, or to his lowered expectations of some players and raised expectations of others. So Bowman started blending the old-school analysis with the new-school analytics.
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Since the 2009-10 Stanley Cup season, the Hawks have been using the same general model, fine-tuning it a bit every season. It’s how the Hawks assess free agents, and evaluate trades, and dole out salary. Bowman can’t bring up his secret stats in an actual contract negotiation — “The other guy could be like, ‘what are you talking about?’,” he said — but it helps him decide a player’s value, which is essentially his entire job description.
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That's great and all but the real secret to their success is being bad enough in the early 2000's to draft Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Byfuglien, etc. and those guys were all brought in by the previous regime.
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Yes, but two great players != a Stanley Cup. You have to build a championship team around them and the hawks have been undeniably successful at doing so. Even after gutting the team after cup win 1/2. Bowman says there's some secret sauce to free agents, trades, salary, etc. Even if he's talking out of his rear end, he's obviously doing something right.
Look at all the teams with great players on them throughout history with nothing to show for it. The hawks got "lucky", but it's what they did with that luck that has made them successful.
So basically their secret formula is having the puck more than the other guys?
"We have this amazing strategy that's led to our success; it's called 'being really good at hockey'."
Every team basically strives to be a strong puck possession team. The point is that the Blackhawks are better at finding and retaining good puck possession players than the vast majority of the league.
That's great and all but the real secret to their success is being bad enough in the early 2000's to draft Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Bolland, Byfuglien, etc. and those guys were all brought in by the previous regime.
Toews and Kane sure, maybe Seabrook, but Byfuglien was pick 245, Keith 54, Bolland 32, Niemi undrafted, Crawford 52, and Hossa UFA signing. It wasn't just sucking at the right time or Edmonton would have at least 1 cup by now. I agree that Tallon deserves a tonne of credit, acquiring all those guys except Hossa, but Bowman has done a good job of keeping them elite despite some salary cap constraints.
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Toews and Kane sure, maybe Seabrook, but Byfuglien was pick 245, Keith 54, Bolland 32, Niemi undrafted, Crawford 52, and Hossa UFA signing. It wasn't just sucking at the right time or Edmonton would have at least 1 cup by now. I agree that Tallon deserves a tonne of credit, acquiring all those guys except Hossa, but Bowman has done a good job of keeping them elite despite some salary cap constraints.
That's my point. The building blocks were there before Bowman and his advanced stats. I have nothing against advanced stats but it's a little misleading to say it's their formula for success success as the real reason is player talent and coaching that was for the most part there before any advanced statistical analysis.
Last edited by Erick Estrada; 05-02-2014 at 11:55 AM.
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I've heard rumors that Burke is actually pretty big into "advanced stats" but plays it down to the media. I feel like they can definitely contribute to a player's profile but are not the be-all end-all of scouting.
If you picked your first round bracket based on regular season possession stats you would have gone 5-3. The Penguins, Ducks, and Canadiens were the exceptions.
If you picked your first round bracket based on regular season possession stats you would have gone 5-3. The Penguins, Ducks, and Canadiens were the exceptions.
I've heard rumors that Burke is actually pretty big into "advanced stats" but plays it down to the media. I feel like they can definitely contribute to a player's profile but are not the be-all end-all of scouting.
I remember after Burke ruffled a few feathers at the MIT Conference this year his son, Patrick, tweeted something along the lines of "If you were doing something that you think is giving you an edge over your competition, would you really advertise that to the world?"
Either way, the fact that he shows up at the MIT conference every year speaks volumes. Burke goes on and on about how he runs his teams like a business, but finds the time to fly to Boston to troll an analytics conference year after year?
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Advanced analytics are the Blackhawks’ secret formula for success
