01-12-2014, 03:55 PM
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#1221
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kehatch
...I think it is very clear he isn't doing as well as other players drafted around him and I don't think we should be ignoring that fact because of some stigma that Jankowski is special.
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I don't think anyone is ignoring this fact, and those who are really high on Jankowski have also agreed that his season thus far has been a disappointment. But there is a big difference between EVALUATING the pick, and drawing conclusions that he is not going to live up to his first round billing based on two one-and-a-half seasons of NCAA hockey.
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01-12-2014, 04:00 PM
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#1222
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan
...if the Flames brass estimated his future progress they should have known where he now is and that isn't worth a 1st rounder...
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If they hadn't drafted him in the first round, they would have lost him to another team. Reports following the draft had at least two other teams looking to pick him in the 20–30 range.
Again, I'm not sure why the Flames or anyone should care about where he is now if there is a chance that he will play, and will be an impact player at a later point in time. He may not be, but I expect that the scouts who vetted him are not altogether surprised about his current developmental track relative to the long term potential that they saw ion draft day last year.
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01-12-2014, 04:45 PM
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#1223
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Franchise Player
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Look at it this way. It has been a long time that we picked a high risk/high reward player. I have no problem with us doing that and am prepared to give Jankowski another season or two in US College to show us his improvement. He made huge off season strides this year, and I hope he does the same next year. He must see the huge opportunity that is there for him to hit the weight room, work on his skating, work on his skills, and improve. It isn't going to be handed to him, but the opportunity is there.
I'd much rather we try this once in a while, especially in a weaker draft and at the bottom of the first round, as opposed to picking "safer" picks like Pelech, Nemisz, etc.
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01-12-2014, 08:36 PM
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#1224
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Franchise Player
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Arguing that a pick was a bad one because another prospect made the jump into the NHL at an earlier date is not much of an argument. By this logic, Joe Nieuwendyk was an absolutely stupid pick when the Flames made it. Drafted out of the NCAA? Are you serious? NHL teams don't draft many players from there! (At the time).
Instead, the Flames should have drafted Alain Cote - who played in the NHL right away.
You can make good arguments for both and against why a prospect who plays in the NHL sooner is the better prospect. It does NOTHING to show which one ends up having the better career. Some prospects are better equipped to enter the NHL sooner, but that doesn't mean they will either have a bigger impact, or even a longer one.
Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard were all superior and logical picks ahead of Giroux, who were 100% the right choices even with hindsight, because they started their NHL seasons before Giroux. Right?
By this logic, you can also make a very good case that Giroux was a mistake of a pick, and that Philadelphia should have indeed selected Foligno.
By the same argument once again, Giroux = Nodl, since they both entered the NHL (and the same team) in the same year.
The more you look at it, the sillier that argument becomes. You can find both very good examples as to why drafting NHL-ready prospects are better, and you can find just as many bad examples as well.
Drafting should have nothing to do with ensuring that whomever you select should be NHL ready ASAP. It should be about drafting with the long-term future success of your team in mind. If that wasn't the case, and it is really that important that you receive a player ASAP, you are better off trading away as many draft picks as possible for NHL-ready players. Why don't all teams do this?
Flames picked Jankowski as a project. It was known then, and it is known now. Of COURSE you are going to start seeing other prospects making the NHL. They were not all rated as project picks.
Ceiling - I guess some of you don't agree with some scouting services' take on his ceiling. He does have high-end skill (we have all witnessed that at the very least in small spurts - Freidmen even mentioned it during a HNIC broadcast). He does possess very high-end IQ. He is a good skater. He is a good playmaker. He does have wonderful size as well. His "ceiling" is that of a 1st line center. Will he make it there? Who knows. Is it a bust if he makes it as a 3rd or 4th line center? He has the size to do it. That is what I think his 'floor' is - I think he will be an NHL player, but at what level is anyone's guess - but to say he doesn't have a high-ceiling goes contrary to not only expert opinions on him, but also evidence we have all seen - albeit in flashes - from him.
This is a pick that is going to take a while to see if it was awesome, terrible or somewhere in the middle. To anoint him as this organization's future franchise center is stupid. To label him as a bust and a terrible pick is just as stupid I think. He still can go both ways, or end up somewhere in the middle.
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01-12-2014, 10:37 PM
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#1225
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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By most accounts.. The guy who is ready to play in the NHL at 18 and 19 is going to be the better player long term. You've pulled a few exceptions, but I'm sure someone could pull a boat load of times where it's gone the other way.
I don't think anyone is calling him a bust or a franchise player... They are just calling him a bad value at where he was drafted.
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01-12-2014, 11:18 PM
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#1226
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
By most accounts.. The guy who is ready to play in the NHL at 18 and 19 is going to be the better player long term. You've pulled a few exceptions, but I'm sure someone could pull a boat load of times where it's gone the other way.
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I'm still waiting to see this, because I am not convinced. Even if it is true "by most accounts", I also question that it is so by a substantial margin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
I don't think anyone is calling him a bust or a franchise player... They are just calling him a bad value at where he was drafted.
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I understand that, and it still seems silly to me. "Bad value" suggests that we already know something about where these players will end up, which I think is premature. Furthermore, with regards to the notion that Jankowski provided better value as a second round selection, it bears repeating that he was likely not to last that long in the draft. Would it have made better sense for the Flames to pass on the player they targeted and wanted, and to take a risk that he would still be there when they next picked in the second round? This seems much more foolish to me. Jankowski was selected where he was selected because the Flames did not want to lose him to another team, and they likely had information that led them to believe that he would not make it out of the first round.
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01-12-2014, 11:22 PM
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#1227
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
By most accounts.. The guy who is ready to play in the NHL at 18 and 19 is going to be the better player long term. You've pulled a few exceptions, but I'm sure someone could pull a boat load of times where it's gone the other way.
I don't think anyone is calling him a bust or a franchise player... They are just calling him a bad value at where he was drafted.
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So who cares? Where he (or any player for that matter) was drafted becomes irrelevant as soon as the draft is done. 1st overall picks bust, 8th round picks become superstars. There are no guarantees on anyone and to hold where he was drafted against him is ludicrous. It wasn't his choice to be drafted then, it just happened. The guy who did it is no longer with the team, and the player he will become remains to be seen.
When he is 25, we can make our judgments.
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01-13-2014, 01:18 AM
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#1228
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
By most accounts.. The guy who is ready to play in the NHL at 18 and 19 is going to be the better player long term.
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By most accounts those players are also taken earlier. I think for this debate you got to look at players drafted afterwards who entered the league earlier. No sense comparing a player who was off the board (Although shying away from Jankowski since he was traded down). Since the lockout here's a list of players who played their first NHL season directly after being drafted (used 40 games as benchmark, might not account for injuries but I'm hoping I got everyone). 2005 only Crosby played.
Players who played their first year after being drafted in 2006:
2nd Staal
5th Kessel
So Erik Johnson goes first and doesn't play his first season. I do think he's finding his own and I wouldn't necessarily put Jordan Staal over him which I realize might be laughable to some. I would put him below Kessel though. Toews and Backstrom go third and fourth. Toews is obviously the best, case could be made for either Kessel or Backstrom as the next best though.
Players who played their first year after being drafted in 2007:
1st Kane
6th Gagner
26th Perron
Gagner played before Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, and Alzner despite being drafted after them. Definite argument could be made for him being the best to start their careers but lately he's being Oilerfied while Van Riemsdyk and Turris are putting it together in Ontario. Turris has 34 points in 46 games this season, Van Riemsdyk has 34 in 45 games. Gagner has 18 points in 35. Alzner's playing over 20 minutes a night on a playoff team. I might be a bit too anti-Oiler biased but I'm only going to put Gagner as definitely ahead of Hickey (despite being better in New York lately).
Perron ends up playing his first year despite being picked 26th overall. While there's definitely a lot of players picked before him that he's clearly ahead of, there's also guys like Voracek, Couture, McDonagh, Eller, Shattenkirk, and Pacioretty who took longer to enter the league.
Players who played their first year after being drafted in 2008:
1st Stamkos
2nd Doughty
3rd Bogosian
5th Schenn
8th Boedker
9th Bailey
The top 3 made the jump right away. The 4th pick and first pick not to play in the NHL was Pietrangelo. None of the players drafted after but played in their first season can hold a candle to him.
The 6th and 7th picks were Filatov and Wilson. Filatov, although gone to Russia and hard to compare, is the obvious last pick. Boedker, Wilson and Bailey are close though, I'd probably put them in that order.
Players who played their first year after being drafted in 2009:
1st Tavares
2nd Hedman
3rd Duchene
4th Kane
14th Kulikov
33rd O'Reilly
Kulikov played before Schenn, Ekman-Larsson, Kadri, Glennie, Cowen, Paajarvi-Svensson, Ellis, de Haan and Kassian. Probably about 50/50 there.
O'Reilly, like Perron, has some players drafted ahead of him who might end up better but he's looking like a very solid pick.
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On one hand you have Boedker playing before Filatov, Perron playing before Esposito, O'Reilly playing before Ferraro and looking like they will be the better players throughout their careers. On the other hand you have Kessel entering the league before Toews, Schenn entering before Pietrangelo, Perron entering before Couture, and Kulikov before Ekman-Larsson.
For second year players you do start getting a bit more of the picture of that draft but players like Ryan, Giroux, Pietrangelo, Benn, Subban, Shattenkirk, Carlson, Neal, Couture and tons of others haven't played in the NHL by their second year.
Last edited by Oling_Roachinen; 01-13-2014 at 01:24 AM.
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01-13-2014, 12:05 PM
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#1229
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
By most accounts.. The guy who is ready to play in the NHL at 18 and 19 is going to be the better player long term. You've pulled a few exceptions, but I'm sure someone could pull a boat load of times where it's gone the other way.
I don't think anyone is calling him a bust or a franchise player... They are just calling him a bad value at where he was drafted.
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It has been well-established they wouldn't have been able to get him with their 2nd round pick. Like it or not, Mark Jankowski was going to be drafted in the 1st round regardless of whether or not Weisbrod got caught in a blizzard. NHL organizations rated this player as a first-round selection.
So in actual fact, Jankowski was picked maybe four or five spots ahead of where he ultimately would have gone. And forgive me, but I'm going to conclude that prospects in the bottom half of the first round swing five or six slots one way or the other in every war room in the league.
In no way is this a bad value pick. And while he may not be the 'best player in the draft' in ten years, is it foreseeable that he is in fact the best value? Getting a first line centre at 21 seems like great value to me. Getting a top six centre at 21 seems like great value to me.
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01-13-2014, 12:24 PM
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#1230
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
By most accounts those players are also taken earlier. I think for this debate you got to look at players drafted afterwards who entered the league earlier. No sense comparing a player who was off .
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This is good... Although like you said for Janko type guys the top picks aren't the best comparison since a guy picked 20th is more likely to never make the NHL versus a top 10 guy.
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01-13-2014, 02:59 PM
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#1231
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Some kinda newsbreaker!
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Learning Phaneufs skating style
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Providence college commit Brian Pinho (6th round pick of the Washington Capitals 2013) sounds like he could be a player with some high level talent to help Jankowski break out next season:
Quote:
HockeyProspect.com, which had Pinho 80th in their final rankings, praised him for his ability to orchestrate the game and be the center of his team’s offense, both at even-strength and on the power play, where he plays the point.
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I am hearing he might be converted to RW at least for his first season. Would be the first NHL draft pick forward to play with Jankowski in Providence.
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01-13-2014, 03:03 PM
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#1232
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Franchise Player
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In my opinion, there wouldn't be as much hand wringing, and/or "I told you so's" about Jankowski if he had gone to...say, Boston College instead of Providence. He'd probably be putting up much better offensive numbers there, than on a low scoring team like Providence.
Really can't wait to see how it all shakes out when the dust finally settles. Going to be a long time yet though.
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01-13-2014, 06:42 PM
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#1233
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Mention of Jankowski in this article from Bob McKenzie about a guy who's playing high school hockey in Ontario after being bypassed in the OHL draft and now likely get drafted in the NHL.
Quote:
Some scouts have wondered aloud whether Foegele may be this year's version of Mark Jankowski, the Calgary Flames' surprise first-round pick, 21st overall, in 2012 from Stanstead College in Quebec, who's now developing and playing well at Providence College.
A flash survey of NHL scouts puts Foegele in potential second or third-round territory for this year's draft. While some have projected him to go later than that, no more than a mid-round prospect, some of those who rank him as a possible second-rounder believe he has the tools to perhaps trend even higher.
Jankowski, part deux?
"He's a kid everyone is going in to look at now," one scout told TSN. "There's a lot of interest in him right now, so we'll see how does with a lot of scrutiny. There are always skeptics for players playing at that level but he's a legit NHL prospect."
Foegele, who trains in the off-season with Gary Roberts, is eligible for the OHL draft, again, this spring, though he seems intent on playing NCAA hockey at UNH.
In any case, it's a name that's getting some play from the scouts in a week when the top dogs will be on display in the CHL Top Prospects game.
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http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=441117
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01-13-2014, 07:01 PM
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#1234
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Calgary
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I think some would sleep better if he was the guy who made Providences offense better.
I'm starting to like th fact he's rounding out on a defensively sound team.
Being defensively sound is a big thing to get good at when you're trying to make the NHL. So this is a good development aspect for him. I'm hopeful that once he gets into an offensive structure he breaks out a little more and still be a solid two way forward.
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01-13-2014, 08:03 PM
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#1235
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Some kinda newsbreaker!
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Learning Phaneufs skating style
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Just putting this out there but according to the scouting experts:
Code:
Jankowski Poirier
CSS 43 39
McKeen's 37 26
ISS 55 79
Button 14 29
Prospectus 36 62
McKenzie 41 46
Excluding CSS ranks as they separate NA and European skaters/goalies, the average is
Jankowski: 36.6... Poirier 48.4
Granted, Button may be a Jankowski homer so lets exclude him too.
Jankowski: 42.25... Poirier 53.25
This certainly implies from the "expert" opinions Poirier was a bigger reach than Jankowski.
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01-13-2014, 08:42 PM
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#1236
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Thanks, sureLoss. I've been trying to find the pre-Draft rankings for Jankowski, but all the ones I found were either for the 2013 or 2014 drafts.
After reading some of the posts in this thread, it can be hard to remember that he wasn't some massive off-the-board pick that no one had heard of. He was un-ranked to start the season, and climbed up the lists with every update. They all had him in the second round, and most not that deep in the second. That's exactly the type of player you would expect to get drafted higher than the experts say.
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01-13-2014, 09:25 PM
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#1237
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Central CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sureLoss
Just putting this out there but according to the scouting experts:
Code:
Jankowski Poirier
CSS 43 39
McKeen's 37 26
ISS 55 79
Button 14 29
Prospectus 36 62
McKenzie 41 46
Excluding CSS ranks as they separate NA and European skaters/goalies, the average is
Jankowski: 36.6... Poirier 48.4
Granted, Button may be a Jankowski homer so lets exclude him too.
Jankowski: 42.25... Poirier 53.25
This certainly implies from the "expert" opinions Poirier was a bigger reach than Jankowski.
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Well great, now I hate the Poirier pick too. Way to go Sureloss!
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01-13-2014, 11:46 PM
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#1238
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy
In my opinion, there wouldn't be as much hand wringing, and/or "I told you so's" about Jankowski if he had gone to...say, Boston College instead of Providence. He'd probably be putting up much better offensive numbers there, than on a low scoring team like Providence.
Really can't wait to see how it all shakes out when the dust finally settles. Going to be a long time yet though.
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He would have been better served around here if he didn't push himself and go right to College. If this was just his freshmen year he'd probably have more points then his first year last season and people wouldn't be so panicky.
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01-14-2014, 01:32 PM
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#1239
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: 403
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Wow.. people sure are impatient.
Some fans just blow my mind. Jankowski was the project pick of all project picks. Feaster admitted after his draft day that it could be up to 4 years before Mark is NHL ready.
I will tell you that I didnt see much of a gap in SKILL between Monahan and Jankowski at this years rookie camp. Monahan was on a line with Gaudreau though... and Janko was with Kenny Agostino iirc. In terms of skating, shot, even coming back defensively, they looked about on par at the camp to me. And I watched them very very closely every single day at winsport.
Am I saying that Jankowski will be just as good as Monahan in the NHL? No - but I am saying the guy is skilled, he has a big frame and his game is steadily if not rapidly improving.
The 2 big problems I saw in Jankowski's game at rookie camp and in the few providence games I have seen is that he is a high skill player not getting high skilled opportinities or time per say. He is always on PP2, or the 3rd line with some non offensive players. This may actually be good, because I doubt his defensive game a lot more than his offensive skills and it could be an opportunity for him to become a more balanced player when he does come to the NHL (which would help him stick more than if he lights the ncaa up and comes here with no defensive know-how or PK experience).
The second problem is he kind of dissapears on the ice. Maybe its because the coaches have tried to drill him with some defensive positioning mentality - to help him develop that side of his game or something along those lines. But a player with his skill level should show up a lot more. If he were to demand the puck, be involved in the play, basically just impose himself on the other team more he would be really hard to deal with.
As soon as Jankowski is playing on the 1st line at providence (likely next season) trust me he will get around a point per game. He needs confidence and top line, top PP minutes. This is kind of bold but I can see it in him because of his natural offensive instinct and passing, stickhandling, finishing ability.
Hopefully we dont take Gillies away from him this summer and allow the providence boys one more crack at it next season. But I can see Gillies in the AHL next season for sure.
Either way this kid will play in the NHL, he just needs some time and proper development.
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01-14-2014, 02:18 PM
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#1240
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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IMO the biggest issue with Jankowski at this point and time is mental. He needs to learn that he is on the same level, if not ahead, of his competition and that he has the skill set to control the pace of the game.
He has all the tools, and a pretty good tool box, but he needs to learn that he can be a force.
In prospects camp, and in the NCAA so far, he played timid. He plays like he is the kid that is behind in his development and is a step below his competition. Whereas he needs to learn that he is just as good, if not better than his competition and that can take control of the game with his skillset.
Hopefully he gains that mindset because IMO the skills are there, he just needs to learn how to harness the skills mentally.
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