Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Markstrom
Weegar
Anderson
Kadri
Coleman
Backlund
Sharongovich
Kuzmenko

We have a foundation. If you mean we have to wait to draft McDavid and Mckinnon in the magic bean lottery before trying to improve the team I can let you in on a secret.

The Flames are never going to draft a player like that. Ever. Hopefully they aren’t using that as their base strategy.

They dumped all of their UFAs this year. I don’t think there are more than 4 players on the team from 3 seasons ago and 2 of them might be leaving this summer. How much more change can you realistically get? That’s around a 92% turnover rate.

At some point you have to reverse that trend if you actually want any undrafted players to come here. Let alone stay. No team in the league is built solely from the magic bean lottery. I’d guess on average 25-50% of most teams players were drafted by them originally.

What difference does it make where you get them from if you have the $$? Is there a prize for most original draft picks per team? Flames need to find affordable good players with enough entry level contracts to keep them under the cap. I think they have a lot of good players. A ton of draft picks. Some poker chips and a massive amount of capspace.

None of those things are bad. I hope Conman uses all of his tools wisely in the offseason. From past history I think he will.

That is not a foundation of a contender. Aim higher

[Bubba17]

Originally Posted by Ped

Sure, they don't win without Thomas and Chara. But they also had Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand, and Seguin (not a huge contributor but still)

All second round, except Sequin pick, who they got from the Kessel trade. It is nice to have the high first round picks, but it is even better if they have the patience and scouting to find gems later on. More picks, more options.

[Jore]

"Dallas model" sounds like wishful thinking to justify spending assets to float a middling team, in other words what they have been doing for decades.

[1qqaaz]

A lot more goes into building a contender than just the draft.

Asset management is straight up more important than drafting. You don't get any benefits from drafting if you can't acquire picks, retain players, or develop players.

And when a team is a contender, cap efficiency is everything. It's about how many good players you can cram under the cap. As long as Huberdeau is under contract, the Flames can only be so cap efficient. And if the Flames aren't cap efficient, they can't truly be bona fide contenders.
The Benn and Seguin contracts are Dallas's biggest weakness. And these contracts are steals in comparison to the Huberdeau contract.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The Dallas model can be boiled down to a very simple statement: "Draft better than everyone else".

That's it.
And I don't say that negatively. In fact, if I were the Flames that's exactly the mission I would put forth to the scouting staff and front office. It acknowledges that the team operates under systematic disadvantages. So if it's going to compete, it must outperform in other areas - the key one being scouting and drafting.

Scouting can be inclusive of identifying under-valued players from other organizations, which they seem to be doing a good job of.

But boil it down to the essence: that's what it really is.

That's it exactly. It's great to sell off your UFA's but long term you don't build a winner that way IMO. It helps for sure in the short term, but it comes down to drafting well.

[really?]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

That is not a foundation. Not even close

It's a foundation, but I think we've already seen what that foundation yields. The players identified in the post are all solid, professional players, and would nicely complement a team where there were 3 first line/first pairing players who were well above league average. The Flames have managed to accumulate a nice grouping of average to above average complimentary pieces, but now they have to find a way to accomplish the more difficult part of the winning equation, which is to acquire the top line talent. Unfortunately, this whole scenario is complicated by the fact that many of the players identified as being foundational are 30+ and will likely have begun the process of regression in a year or two making any commitment to building around this group an exercise in futility.

Conroy has done a lot of good work to this point, and IMO the players on the team have displayed a professionalism and commitment which is deserving of the respect of us as fans. All this having been said, if the Flames primary motivation over the summer is to make moves to bolster the team for next year at the cost of assets that may bloom in 3-4 years, they will find themselves in a similar staits for another decade.

This offseason, and the next two years will define the next decade for this franchise. If they start moving picks to acquire young third/fourth liners who they hope will bloom into value added 1st of 2nd liners, we should expect to be supporting a team much like this season's team a decade from now. If they guard their picks and trust in their scouts and Conroy's judgment on talent, this could be a special squad in 4-5 years. That doesn't mean the team wouldn't push for the playoffs, it would simply mean that the foundation identified, and young players rising through ranks would need to continue to deliver the level of effort and commitment that they showed this season.

I would say it will be interesting to see what the team will do, but I just don't see the Flames fully committing to a future oriented plan and I fear that we are destined to pursue a course that will yield a full compliment of good players without the exceptional components that do the necessary lifting to lead those players to a cup.

The Flames do have a foundation, unfortunately, they lack the materials which are needed to complete the construction of the building.

[Roof-Daddy]

The Flames have a foundation of very solid depth players, both in the NHL and in the prospect pool.

What they lack is "superstar" players on the NHL squad.

And as of right now it doesn't seem like they have any "superstar" players in the prospect cupboard either, although a couple may come out of the woodwork. For example, players like Wolf and Brzustewicz have been superstars as prospects, whether they can find that success in the NHL is questionable, although not impossible.

Conroy and his crew really need to nail the next couple of drafts for sure if they are going to build a contender.

The good news is if they can unearth a couple stars somewhere they have the depth to fill out the roster behind them and the cap space to pay them long term (hopefully they don't waste the cap space on UFA day).

And although you can't rely on it, a little luck would help too. Starting with a Celebrini to kick this sucker off.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The Flames have a foundation of very solid depth players, both in the NHL and in the prospect pool.

What they lack is "superstar" players on the NHL squad.

And as of right now it doesn't seem like they have any "superstar" players in the prospect cupboard either, although a couple may come out of the woodwork. For example, players like Wolf and Brzustewicz have been superstars as prospects, whether they can find that success in the NHL is questionable, although not impossible.

Conroy and his crew really need to nail the next couple of drafts for sure if they are going to build a contender.

The good news is if they can unearth a couple stars somewhere they have the depth to fill out the roster behind them and the cap space to pay them long term (hopefully they don't waste the cap space on UFA day).

And although you can't rely on it, a little luck would help too. Starting with a Celebrini to kick this sucker off.

Add a scoring top six winger and a top six center this team looks entirely different.

Team needs. Clear number one defencemen. Top six and bottom six centers. Add thise to what we have this is probably a bubble team as soon as next year.

Although personally would like to be in the top ten again next year. Ya a lottery win to first or second would be huge. With a second pick i think they take catton or Buium or Dickinson. Just not sure with injury concerns where lindstrom fits anymore.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

And although you can't rely on it, a little luck would help too. Starting with a Celebrini to kick this sucker off.

The crazy thing about this draft is that any team in the top 12 that doesn't win the 1st pick has a reasonable chance to get the second best player. Levshunov seems to be the popular pick for second overall, but beyond that it's a crapshoot in the mock drafts.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The Dallas model can be boiled down to a very simple statement: "Draft better than everyone else".

That's it.
And I don't say that negatively. In fact, if I were the Flames that's exactly the mission I would put forth to the scouting staff and front office. It acknowledges that the team operates under systematic disadvantages. So if it's going to compete, it must outperform in other areas - the key one being scouting and drafting.

Scouting can be inclusive of identifying under-valued players from other organizations, which they seem to be doing a good job of.

But boil it down to the essence: that's what it really is.

That was how the Kings won their Cups as well.

[Calgary4LIfe]

i was glad that Conroy explained what he meant by retool and rebuild. My own terminology is a bit different than his.



Retool: A large change usually from a hockey trade in the off-season to your core. You do it in the off-season really, and hope for a better season.


Rebuild: You sell vets for draft picks/young guys. Takes a few seasons.


Scorched earth: Purposeful tanking that lasts at least 5 years. You are selling anything of any value at all with the intent of making your club terrible to increase your own draft picks, as well as adding any draft picks possible.


I didn't think the Flames would ever be doing a scorched earth. They didn't last time either. My gripe with how Treliving handled the last rebuild is that I thought he didn't prioritize the draft enough and artificially came out of it too early (like the Hamonic deal, for instance).


The 'Dallas blueprint" is a fine way to look at it. I just look at it as the Flames in a rebuild, period, and what they have to do is draft their next core. I think they have enough good young pieces from previous drafts that will go a long way in supporting their future core - 2nd line players, 2nd pairing defencemen (and maybe more on both fronts, but nobody you really lock into as a franchise type yet). They just need to find blocks to actually build around.



I don't think this is going to be a long rebuild. They have too many good pieces already, unless they take it down to the studs. I do think that next season they will bottom out (though I wish it was the 2026 season with who will be going 1st). I think the Flames will still be in the bottom 10 in the 2026 season, but rising.


The most important thing is to not come out of this simply as a younger version of how you went in - just a mediocre-talented team that needs to out-work opponents most nights to win. They need the difference makers who can win a game even when the players bring their B game. You want to make sure that your culture is one that works hard every night. It just impossible to out-work every team every night. Then you get to the playoffs, and you just end up facing a team that wants it just as badly as you do, who is willing to work as hard as you do, but they have the elite-talent on top of their willingness to work.



Flames are a fantastic drafting team, so I am sure they will find enough talent in the next 3 drafts or so, plus from elsewhere. Let's just not speed things up too much and changing gears too fast into 'win now' mode before this team shows you that it is a good team. I disagree that you should spend futures on an improving team who is rather mediocre still. You need to build a team up first, then once they show you that they are a good team, that's when you flip the switch and do what you can to make them great.


I think Conroy has it right. I have never really agreed with a scorched earth rebuild before.

[jayswin]

Treliving was nailing it for awhile, then he suddenly switched gears when we beat Vancouver in the playoffs and instead of still acquiring picks and making selections he acted like a Stanley Cup contender that just needed to trade all his high draft capital to shore up a few weaknesses and we'd be perennial contenders.

That Vancouver series really effed up that whole build (I mean it didn't have to Brad just stuck with a long term plan) as we acted like we were in year 5 of a rebuild when we were barely out of year two.

[TheScorpion]

I wrote a bit about the "Dallas model" over at FN yesterday (published today):

https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-cal...-requires-more

Here’s the thing: Dallas had a great 2017 draft, as Conroy mentioned. That’s a once-in-a-generation draft haul. Every team enters the draft looking to pick three All-Stars in one fell swoop. Almost none of them succeed. That’s not the type of thing anybody can bank on.

Dallas also enjoyed a bit of luck in 2017 that the Flames have never once had. The Stars were originally slated to pick eighth overall that year before winning the lottery and moving up five spots. They ended up getting Heiskanen at No. 3; had they remained at No. 8, they would’ve had their pick of Casey Mittelstadt, Michael Rasmussen, and Owen Tippett. Good players, but not cornerstones.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Find me a cup champ that didn't already have a foundation in place before they dabbled into free agency in any sort of significant way?

Timing is everything. Prematurely spending money in free agency will prevent the team from drafting where they need to draft.

St Louis 2019

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Goriders

St Louis 2019

Alex Pietrangelo and a once in a decade goaltending performance.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Alex Pietrangelo and a once in a decade goaltending performance.

Not to mention O'Reilly playing unbelievable that year and like a top 5 center.

[Goriders]

Look the original question

[Burning Beard]

By "Dallas model" I'm sure he just wants to rebuild as quickly as possible without turning into this year's sharks. Doesn't mean he is going to rush or take shortcuts. People just seem to want to assume the worst possibility about everything these days.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Markstrom
Weegar
Anderson
Kadri
Coleman
Backlund
Sharongovich
Kuzmenko

We have a foundation.

That’s a pretty old foundation.

The majority of those players will likely not be around when the Flames are a contender again. Especially if they don’t use that “ foundation” to obtain draft capital to speed up the rebuild.

That foundation may simply keep the Flames out of the bottom 5 lottery picks if they are kept for the next 2-3 years.

Now if Marky is traded, as expected, that foundation takes a serious hit.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Markstrom
Weegar
Anderson
Kadri
Coleman
Backlund
Sharongovich
Kuzmenko

We have a foundation. If you mean we have to wait to draft McDavid and Mckinnon in the magic bean lottery before trying to improve the team I can let you in on a secret.

The Flames are never going to draft a player like that. Ever. Hopefully they aren’t using that as their base strategy.

They dumped all of their UFAs this year. I don’t think there are more than 4 players on the team from 3 seasons ago and 2 of them might be leaving this summer. How much more change can you realistically get? That’s around a 92% turnover rate.

At some point you have to reverse that trend if you actually want any undrafted players to come here. Let alone stay. No team in the league is built solely from the magic bean lottery. I’d guess on average 25-50% of most teams players were drafted by them originally.

What difference does it make where you get them from if you have the $$? Is there a prize for most original draft picks per team? Flames need to find affordable good players with enough entry level contracts to keep them under the cap. I think they have a lot of good players. A ton of draft picks. Some poker chips and a massive amount of capspace.

None of those things are bad. I hope Conman uses all of his tools wisely in the offseason. From past history I think he will.

That’s a crap foundation. Hence the crap results with them so far.

Of the players you listed, none of the forwards have proven to be top-line players on top teams.

Markstrom is 34, and quite likely never playing for the Flames again.

Weegar and Andersson are good players, but I’d say it’s unlikely that they’re both top pairing defencemen on a top team. Weegar is #2 in my eyes, and Andersson is a #3 or #4.

It’s not a magic-bean lottery. It’s the NHL entry draft, and it’s where Stanley Cup Champions actually build their foundation.