2024/2025 Trade Rumours and Speculation thread

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I was pointing to those teams this year as examples of what bottom-feeding rosters look like. The Flames roster next season won’t be anything close to as bad.

As for next season, Anaheim will likely take a step. Chicago and SJ will still be awful, and deliberately so. They’re still in full tank mode.

Columbus will likely still be bad. I don’t see Montreal taking a big step - most of their best prospects are d-man and will take time to develop. Arizona is still not ready to make a big jump unless they take a big shot in free agency.

Then there are teams like Washington, NYI, and Minnesota who could see big drops in the standings. The Torts effect may wear off in Philly. I think the Kraken will continue to fall to earth after their surprising debut. Those are the teams the Flames will likely find itself in the mix with next season.

It’s actually pretty difficult to be a bottom five team in this league unless ownership and management are committed to tanking. And I just don’t see that happening with this franchise.

Here’s how I’d handicap next season:

Bottom tier

SJ
CHI
CBJ
MTL
SEA

Non-playoff

ANA
ARI
CGY
WAS
MIN
PHI
OTT
PIT

I more or less agree but could also see the Flames in the position you have MTL & SEA and swapped.
It's hard to pin things down exactly but it's a very good bet the Flames are bottom 10, 5th or worse in the Pacific and could go a bit lower from there if/when Markstrom is traded.
I would say every team you listed has under a 1% chance at the cup, which is the main thing.

[Sylvanfan]

NFL rosters have 53 players, careers are short, and the draft is 7 rounds. Most teams have 4-5 drafted players on their roster every year. The feeder system is bigger and the players are older. So getting more picks will work well.

NHL finding players is harder, so I don't think trading back in the first round will always work out. Really moving your 28-29 year olds for picks might be the better strategy.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

I’m not sure he thinks they’ve had a winning culture under the previous core just that he and the coaching staff is preaching that with the veterans that remain so they have it going forward. It’s reflected in the tone guys like Weegar, Backlund and Kadri have adopted the last couple months, even when they’re losing. The biggest risk of this tactic is that if the retool/rebuild takes more than a couple years — or if they’re incredibly bad next year — can the veterans continue to push guys or will they just give into the negativity?

Conroy’s putting a lot on a quick turnaround and if they don’t, he might not be long for the organization.

This is why a 9th place finish this season is puzzling. If you're going to do a quick turn around you're better to do a deep dive and give yourself the best chance. There's a good chance the 9th pick doesn't move the needle, and if they don't move the needle or are they going to be able to get better players?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

This is why a 9th place finish this season is puzzling. If you're going to do a quick turn around you're better to do a deep dive and give yourself the best chance. There's a good chance the 9th pick doesn't move the needle, and if they don't move the needle or are they going to be able to get better players?

You have said this multiple times now.

He traded away a bunch of the team, we had a rookie alternating starts.

How do you want him to accomplish finishing lower?

Teams don't throw games. We have champions on the team, they won't just quit because it helps our draft position.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You have said this multiple times now.

He traded away a bunch of the team, we had a rookie alternating starts.

How do you want him to accomplish finishing lower?

Teams don't throw games. We have champions on the team, they won't just quit because it helps our draft position.

The only thing Conroy could have done was trade everyone last offseason but that was never going to happen as they still could have just underperformed and bounced back and values were garbage anyways

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You have said this multiple times now.

He traded away a bunch of the team, we had a rookie alternating starts.

How do you want him to accomplish finishing lower?

Teams don't throw games. We have champions on the team, they won't just quit because it helps our draft position.

I don't disagree with you, yes I have said it a few times. But to get a better player I think we need to finish a little bit lower than 9th, otherwise we might see ourselves moving forward and never really have an impact player that this team needs

I have also said the Conroy seems to have a good eye for talent, will be interesting to see if he can pull out more rabbits. I think winning the draft lottery would be the best thing that could happen.

[dino7c]

teams are struggling to get their own guys under the cap during summer let alone trading for upcoming UFAs

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Chicago and SJ will still be awful, and deliberately so. They’re still in full tank mode.

I'm not so sure Chicago will be as bad. Do they want to waste Bedards entire ELC not even being close to the playoffs?

They'll get a high pick this year made moves to flush out the team before landing Bedard last year and should have 30 million plus in cap space. The Oilers and Penguins made the playoffs in McDavid and Crosby's sophomore years. Even with Patrick Kane the Hawks were a playoff team in his second season. So I would think they'll want to be aggressive and get something out of these last two cheap ELC years.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Plenty of young guys could be available. Cutter Gauthier was just traded because he didn't want to sign with Philly, 5th OA pick. Zegras is available, 9th OA. Kakko? 2nd OA. Kotkaniemi? 3rd OA. I'm sure all these guys are available, figuring out which ones are the ones that just need a change of scenery is the key. And there are probably several more.

Zegras will be playing in Europe in a few years. He is one of the worst players I've ever watched. Nice hands but belongs on YouTube not on the ice. He has 0 hockey IQ or compete.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

I don't disagree with you, yes I have said it a few times. But to get a better player I think we need to finish a little bit lower than 9th, otherwise we might see ourselves moving forward and never really have an impact player that this team needs

I have also said the Conroy seems to have a good eye for talent, will be interesting to see if he can pull out more rabbits. I think winning the draft lottery would be the best thing that could happen.

We had a lot go right as well. Teams have gotten good players at 9 before as well.

We should be in the Hagens sweepstakes next year. This is not a good roster, and whatever steps some of the young guys take, will just make up for whatever the vets regress back too.

We are actually unlucky not to be in the playoffs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

The playoffs this year are making me even more apprehensive of the Flames trying to retool this roster to compete for next year.

Islanders, Capitals, Kings. All teams that limped into the playoffs that have been absolutely put to rest in the first round.

That is the future that awaits the Flames if they somehow make the playoffs next year. I don't think it's realistic to expect a Florida style run from this team when you can't predict star seasons from the players on this roster. There are no young players in this organization waiting to emerge as franchise players.

This is the year to bottom out, and I'm hoping Conroy sees this first round and sees it too.

You need not worry over this - not happening

[Savvy27]

The Flames are not going to be a bottom 5 team. The only reason they even dropped into the bottom 10 this season after the trade deadline was the play of Jacob Markstrom, a true tank commander.

It may not have registered because the Flames traded away key pieces so their quality of play dropped a bit, but without his terrible goaltending performance the team would not have fallen off like they did.

Jacob Markstrom October 10 - March 8 versus March 9 to April 18
Record: 22-16-2 / Record: 1-7-0
Wins: 22 (10th) / Wins: 1 (67th)
Save Percentage: .911 (14th) / Save Percentage: .870 (66th)
GAA: 2.62 (17th) / GAA: 3.55 (62nd)
Games Started with SV% above .900: 24 (13th) / zero (71st tied for last)
Even Strength SV%: .917 (22nd) / .900 (54th)
Penalty Kill SV%: .907 (5th) / .714 (73rd)


For Comparison here is Dustin Wolf with the same roster post deadline:
Record: 6-4-0
Wins: 6 (17th)
Save Percentage: .902 (36th)
GAA: 2.74 (34th)
Games Started with SV% above .900: 6 (18th)
Even Strength SV%: .912 (39th)
Penalty Kill SV%: .841 (49th)


Flames October 10 - March 8 vs March 9 - April 18
Record: 31-26-5 (19th) / 7-13-0 (27th)
GF: 197 (17th) / 56 (18th)
GA: 190 (14th) / 77 (31st)
PP: 14.4 (30th) / 29.3 (3rd)
PK: 86.3 (4th) / 71.4 (29th)
Shots for: 31.3 (12th) / 31.7 (10th)
Shots against: 14.4 (15th) / 29.3 (14th)

Even Strength Shot attempts% (corsi): 50.75 (16th) / 52.94 (8th)
Even Strength Expected Goals For%: 51.60 (10th) / 48.74 (20th)
Even Strength Actual Goals For%: 51.62 (14th) / 39.18 (30th)
Even Strength Save%: .902 (22nd) / .879 (27th)
Even Strength Expected Goals Against per 60: 2.72 (15th) / 2.85 (22nd)
Even Strength Actual Goals Against per 60: 2.85 (20th) / 3.45 (30th)
Even Strength Scoring Chance Against per 60: 28.53 (22nd) / 27.23 (14th)
Penalty Kill xGA/60: 8.39 (14th) / 7.33 (10th)
Penalty Kill Actual GA/60: 7.23 (12th) / 10.93 (29th)


Where are the significant drop-offs? In my opinion they are mostly related to goaltending.
Goals against: 14th to 31st
PK: 4th to 29th
Expected GF%: 10th to 20th
Actual GF%: 14th to 30th
Expected Goals Against/60: 15th to 22nd
Even Strength Actual Goals Against/60: 20th to 30th
Penalty Kill Actual Goals Against/60: 12th to 29th


If the Flames drop-off was due to the skaters, I would expect to see the drop-offs in expected numbers and actual numbers to be similar, but that's not the case. The skaters remained in the range where you would expect a bubble team to be (15th to 22nd) in most categories, but the results were bottom five.

It's possible that there will be regression among the better players and that goaltending will be terrible, but I think both of those would have to happen for the Flames to be at the bottom of the league. Much more likely to see them in the 16th - 25th range again.

[aiy_yah]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

I read an interesting article (on the Athletic I think?) where they related that the most proven method of NFL draft success was trading back in the draft and accumulating more picks. Given that there are more players on the field at once, and a lot more positions, not sure if this would also work in the NHL?

They said that even though teams know this is what works best, they're reluctant to do so because no one wants the possibility of losing out on the shiny new toy of a high draft pick. Even though trading back results in higher probabilities of drafting multiple productive players and produces a much stronger talent base. That and the fact that a lot of players just don't turn out, so having more bullets in the chamber sort of thing.

I'd sure prefer the Flames to keep their picks, and accumulate more to build up a strong talent base. Not sure about the trading back and getting more picks thing though - I'm still not sure it would translate in the NHL like the NFL.

But we definitely need to build up our talent. When I look at our team and it's overall prospects I don't see anything that screams contender. If they want to continue to be a mediocre team that's fine, but at least don't pretend otherwise. It seems like Conroy wants to build it up, but it will take a few years to get a good read on their actions.

Fingers crossed!

Flames have done this in the recent past - 2020 draft they traded down twice and added picks before taking Zary 24th. They traded with the Rangers and used the 3rd for Poirier and then traded with the Caps and used the 3rd to take Boltmann.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

I read an interesting article (on the Athletic I think?) where they related that the most proven method of NFL draft success was trading back in the draft and accumulating more picks. Given that there are more players on the field at once, and a lot more positions, not sure if this would also work in the NHL?

They said that even though teams know this is what works best, they're reluctant to do so because no one wants the possibility of losing out on the shiny new toy of a high draft pick. Even though trading back results in higher probabilities of drafting multiple productive players and produces a much stronger talent base. That and the fact that a lot of players just don't turn out, so having more bullets in the chamber sort of thing.

I'd sure prefer the Flames to keep their picks, and accumulate more to build up a strong talent base. Not sure about the trading back and getting more picks thing though - I'm still not sure it would translate in the NHL like the NFL.

But we definitely need to build up our talent. When I look at our team and it's overall prospects I don't see anything that screams contender. If they want to continue to be a mediocre team that's fine, but at least don't pretend otherwise. It seems like Conroy wants to build it up, but it will take a few years to get a good read on their actions.

Fingers crossed!

It's the opposite of the NBA, where later picks have almost comically low value, and they have taken to selling off deep futures picks as capital instead.

The NHL is somewhere in between... I think there's a blend of strategy here that's important. But for me there's an ironclad line at 10. You don't trade down a top 10 pick (at least not out of the top 10). After that, trading down earns more merit. The top 10 is vague, some years it's only 4 and some years it might be top 15 that you wouldn't want to leave. But I'm always interested in trading a late round pick if you can pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd or something. By late round everyone's draft lists are sufficiently diverse that you may even be able to pick up the same guy you wanted higher. E.g. the Zary draft.

[traptor]

The only team guranteed to be worse then flames in the sharks.


Anaheim, Habs, Chicago and blue jackets are all going to be building. They all have their young talent and need to set the bar on starting to be competitive.

Would not be supprised at all to see Chicago go big game hunting now.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Zegras will be playing in Europe in a few years. He is one of the worst players I've ever watched. Nice hands but belongs on YouTube not on the ice. He has 0 hockey IQ or compete.

That's quite the bold prediction. I don't agree or disagree because I could see it going either way.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

We had a lot go right as well. Teams have gotten good players at 9 before as well.

We should be in the Hagens sweepstakes next year. This is not a good roster, and whatever steps some of the young guys take, will just make up for whatever the vets regress back too.

We are actually unlucky not to be in the playoffs.

Might be the amount of time I'm spending in the prospect thread b/c of where Calgary was going to finish, but it seems like this year, there's not a lot of obvious separation between the 4th to the 12th or 13th prospect. Lots of different skillsets in this range that seems to make this draft tier pretty even. It'll just depend on what team's above Calgary prioritize.

Obviously 1st overall is ideal, as Celebrini is a step above, but it's not a bad year to pick in the top 10 and still get a choice between a few really great prospects.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by traptor

The only team guranteed to be worse then flames in the sharks.


Anaheim, Habs, Chicago and blue jackets are all going to be building. They all have their young talent and need to set the bar on starting to be competitive.

Would not be supprised at all to see Chicago go big game hunting now.

I will guarantee you the Flames are not 31st

[Flamesfan05]

They don’t have to be the worst team. They just need to be in the mix and they definitely are. Besides, there are more things that could go wrong than right next year.

Unless Conroy goes out buying quick fixes, the Flames are in good shape for the next lottery intentional or not

[dustygoon]

Plus NFL draft is based on positional need.

2005 draft had Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Smith was slightly better in many minds but were pretty close. Smith went #1 overall and Rodgers was 2nd quarterback taken but goes #24 overall.