01-20-2022, 06:13 PM
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#3381
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wwkayaker
Hopefully, the prices continue trending down for better valuations.
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From an investment perspective why do you want this?
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01-20-2022, 06:17 PM
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#3382
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
From an investment perspective why do you want this?
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I won't speak for the person you quoted, but my view would be what the collective "we" know is how to value a company based on earnings. With all the easy money injected into the market, it's distorted those traditional tools to evaluate the performance of companies and their stocks.
Nothing has happened in the past two years to justify that a re-rate of the S&P 500 that would make a P/E ratio of 50x be the new normal.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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01-20-2022, 06:22 PM
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#3383
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Self Imposed Retirement
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Calgary
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This guy's predicting a 50% S&P crash.
Jeremy Grantham, the legendary investor who has predicted the last three market bubbles, foresees the S&P 500 crashing almost 50% after the fourth "superbubble" the US has ever seen bursts — even with multiple efforts underway to prevent it.
His advice to investors?
Avoid US equities, invest in value stocks of emerging markets and several cheaper developed countries such as Japan. Plus, have some cash for flexibility, as well as a little gold and silver.
And as for crypto, that asset class leaves him "increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession," he said.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-gmo-50-2022-1
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01-20-2022, 06:46 PM
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#3384
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: the middle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
From an investment perspective why do you want this?
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Cash heavy, probably.
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01-20-2022, 08:54 PM
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#3385
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I think people need to be careful with that kind of comparison though. It depends on your risk tolerance, and risk-adjusted return, not purely “did you beat the market?”
I also think that in Canada we have a somewhat unique challenge in that regard. Specifically, which market? Is the goal to beat the TSX?
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I've never managed other people's money except as a trader for extremely sophisticated clients. But every time I did so we discussed what the benchmark was in advance. I've turned down someone who wanted a low volatility merger arb strategy that wanted to benchmark it to the S&P500, because that's completely unreasonable.
If the manager and a client aren't using the same benchmark that seems 100% likely to result in conflict/disappointment.
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The Following User Says Thank You to bizaro86 For This Useful Post:
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01-20-2022, 08:55 PM
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#3386
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
From an investment perspective why do you want this?
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I think things are quite expensive right now which will reduce returns. I don’t plan to use my savings for about 15 years so I’d like to accumulate shares at better valuations. If I needed the money now, I’d hate a market decline.
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01-20-2022, 09:17 PM
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#3387
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roughneck
Cash heavy, probably.
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No, I have about 8% sitting in cash which isn’t ideal but dividends and contributions have been accumulating for awhile now. Like another poster said regarding PE ratios of say 50, that is not a company I want to buy just as I wouldn't buy a private company where it would take 40 or 50 years of earnings to get my initial investment back. I plan to invest some capital soon to bring my cash down to ~ 5% and the current pullback is making that more attractive.
Regarding Jeremy Grantham, he has been talking about a crash for years. Sometime he will be right.
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01-20-2022, 09:36 PM
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#3388
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I've never managed other people's money except as a trader for extremely sophisticated clients. But every time I did so we discussed what the benchmark was in advance. I've turned down someone who wanted a low volatility merger arb strategy that wanted to benchmark it to the S&P500, because that's completely unreasonable.
If the manager and a client aren't using the same benchmark that seems 100% likely to result in conflict/disappointment.
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Yeah, and that’s definitely the case. But all the “beat the market” talk is largely ignoring that. I’ve seen largely Canadian mutual funds compare themselves to the TSX when they’re ~40% US stocks and gleefully showing a graph about their outperformance. It cuts both ways, for sure. Improper benchmarks are just like any other chart crime, only more difficult to spot because the reader doesn’t always have the information.
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The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Slava For This Useful Post:
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01-21-2022, 11:36 AM
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#3389
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Winchestertonfieldville Jail
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Bought LSPD @ 87.5... am I ####ed?
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01-21-2022, 02:39 PM
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#3390
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Lifetime Suspension
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Maybe. Either sell and be happy with the scraps or hold hold and hold some more.
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01-21-2022, 03:03 PM
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#3391
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Weird twilight zone where the market is tanking but energy stocks are strong. Feels like energy and dividends are the safest stocks at the moment.
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01-21-2022, 04:12 PM
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#3392
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Scoring Winger
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$85 oil. Might as well pile it all into energy now.
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01-21-2022, 06:40 PM
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#3393
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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I'm working for free for the rest of the month.
I literally lost an entire paycheque in the market today.
I wish I was in risky stuff like crypto but I'm far more basic than that.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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01-21-2022, 07:04 PM
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#3394
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rain_e
$85 oil. Might as well pile it all into energy now.
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I’m going all in on subway.
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The Following User Says Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
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01-21-2022, 07:38 PM
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#3395
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleK
I'm working for free for the rest of the month.
I literally lost an entire paycheque in the market today.
I wish I was in risky stuff like crypto but I'm far more basic than that.
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Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN
Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
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01-21-2022, 07:52 PM
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#3396
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Lifetime Suspension
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I have trouble seeing the likes of Apple and Amazon as growth stocks how high can a company valuation go? The massive growth is already built in.
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The Following User Says Thank You to zamler For This Useful Post:
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01-21-2022, 07:56 PM
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#3397
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury
Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN
Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
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Woah - that's a huge amount of cash - market crash would be a jackpot for you right now
I just last week finished paying down the margin debt I accumulated in 2020
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The Following User Says Thank You to Mayo For This Useful Post:
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01-21-2022, 08:10 PM
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#3398
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury
Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN
Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
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Depending on how long you’ve held and what you bought for, the Canadian banks probably have you in a profitable position. Amazon has been dead money since basically August 2020, but this week and today was not good for them.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Slava For This Useful Post:
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01-21-2022, 08:22 PM
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#3399
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Uzbekistan
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A correction is inevitable. Don’t panic sell. I don’t care if my ETFs go down 50% because they’ll eventually come back up, whether it’s 6 months, 2 years or 5 years. Just set it and forget it.
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The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Johnny199r For This Useful Post:
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01-22-2022, 05:22 PM
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#3400
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury
Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN
Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
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Things don't go straight up, they ebb and flow. Higher interest rates MAY be good for the banks, but they may also be disaster (if they result in significant bankruptcies). Regardless, stock prices won't just keep going up and up and up without dips.
And the banks just enjoyed about a 15% jump in about a month. This 'sell-off' has brought us all the back down to prices not seen since about Jan 12th!
What exactly are you expecting?
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