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View Poll Results: Best guess for Tkachuk's contract result
8 @ 7M 10 1.61%
8 @ 8M 41 6.59%
8 @ 9M 21 3.38%
8 @ 10M 8 1.29%
7 @ 7M 21 3.38%
7 @ 8M 61 9.81%
7 @ 9M 19 3.05%
7 @ 10M 3 0.48%
6 @ 6M 4 0.64%
6 @ 7M 48 7.72%
6 @ 8M 126 20.26%
6 @ 9M 27 4.34%
5 @ 6M 3 0.48%
5 @ 7M 56 9.00%
5 @ 8M 66 10.61%
5 @ 9M 10 1.61%
4 @ 5M 1 0.16%
4 @ 6M 4 0.64%
4 @ 7M 19 3.05%
3 @ 4M 2 0.32%
3 @ 5M 4 0.64%
3 @ 6M 46 7.40%
2 @ 4M 3 0.48%
2 @ 5M 15 2.41%
1 @ 4M 1 0.16%
1 @ 5M 3 0.48%
Voters: 622. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-26-2019, 12:02 PM   #81
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Again you are missing the point.

It doesnt matter what I or anyone else "thinks he is worth".

The precedence has been set. Thats how contract negotiations work in the NHL now. Don Meehan is the best agent in the business...not because he gets his guys every last dollar but because he gets them a fair price and keeps both the player and the teams he deals with happy.

So now you have to look around at players of his age, experience, production, intangibles, who are/were RFA etc and see ...what is fair?

Do that and you can come to a number....but that number sure as hell isnt 6.9 a year nor is it 10M a year. Definately somewhere in the middle however....and guess whats in the middle?

8.5M per year

Now you have to figure out term. Well you arent going 4 as that takes him to UFA. He isnt going to 8 as he gives up years of UFA. So you land somewhere between 5-7 and guess whats in the middle?

6.

So 8.5M X 6 years is where, using all the tools available, we land with this guy....in a fair and palatable spot for both sides.

Oh and going hardball holdout/no signing is not good for either side. Make him sit out? How does that advance your team going forward? What did it do for the Leafs and Nylander? What does it say to other players and agents?

If you, personally, don't see MT as being a premier forward in the game moving forward, then yes i understand your position.

If you see him, as i believe the club sees him, as a guy that is on an ascension to among the best in the business, then without question you pay him fair market and get a couple years of UFA while you are at it....everyone is happy.

You suggest I am missing some point and then you believe it works like this:
1. settle on cap hit
2. Then settle on term

Not a chance.

Look, I laid out a scenario and asked, given that scenario, what the RFA does You could suspend your disbelief and think it through. I donít think it was an entirely implausible situation (donít nitpick about exact numbers, it is the principle)

If I was Tkachuk, and had to choose between a) zero dollars and not playing , or b) a bit less than I want, but playing, I would probably concede to some extent. Because my only other option is throwing away money plus a year of my career where I have a chance to win, by virtue of actually playing .

You canít say it is an economic decision that affects him life long so he needs too dollar, and then ignore that threatening to hold out means he is threatening to give up many dollars. You canít have that both ways

And I acknowledge that no, itís not good for the team to have a holdout, but it is way more risky for the player. Especially on a team where right now Tkachuk is only among the top 5

We will see what happens.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:03 PM   #82
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Thanks. Your equally weird, I suppose, appreciation of that one (1) goal in the entire month of February is also great work. That goal was a beauty.

The guy had a 3 game stretch with 6 goals, including 2 very productive games, Vegas and NYR, where he got 5.

There are what, about 30 games after the all star break?

Just because the other top players crapped the bed doesnít entitle Tkachuk to be paid like them. Thatís weird, too, man. Derek Ryan was a better player than Tkachuk post all star break.

Iím not saying the power dynamic is totally one sided, but thatís the whole point of how RFA status can close the gap. At some point, the ĎRí means you have limitations on the leverage.

All of the other situations with top dollar contracts that people mention, it is desperate GMs like Chiarelli who has to put *something* on the ice , same in Buffalo, and Toronto is nuts and Dubas is green.

Itís obvious to me. You donít back up the truck to a RFA. Yes, you pay him fairly, but you donít over pay beyond what is necessary
Agreed.

So what is that?

If someone offer sheets him at 8.5 X6......do you match or take

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Old 05-26-2019, 12:03 PM   #83
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"What's he going to do? Hold Out?"

*Nylander holds out for 3 months causing a league wide distraction for the team and ultimately upsetting their core group*
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:04 PM   #84
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This is the part that confuses me. I like Tkachuk more than Nylander, but he isnít really more multi dimensional than Nylander.

Nylander is more talented offensively. Donít need to get into skating again but that part is obvious too. Nylander also played C a ton this season, and does back check and make defensive plays.

Does Tkachuk really make defensive plays???? Nylander is no Backlund, but he isnít 05 Ovechkin either. Iíd say heís more 2 way than Tkachuk is.

And both of them can vanish for long stretches for seemingly no reason.
Lmao. Yes Tkachuk makes a lot of defensive plays and is one of the top possession wingers in the league. Heís getting 9
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:07 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Thanks. Your equally weird, I suppose, appreciation of that one (1) goal in the entire month of February is also great work. That goal was a beauty.

The guy had a 3 game stretch with 6 goals, including 2 very productive games, Vegas and NYR, where he got 5.

There are what, about 30 games after the all star break?

Just because the other top players crapped the bed doesnít entitle Tkachuk to be paid like them. Thatís weird, too, man. Derek Ryan was a better player than Tkachuk post all star break.

Iím not saying the power dynamic is totally one sided, but thatís the whole point of how RFA status can close the gap. At some point, the ĎRí means you have limitations on the leverage.

All of the other situations with top dollar contracts that people mention, it is desperate GMs like Chiarelli who has to put *something* on the ice , same in Buffalo, and Toronto is nuts and Dubas is green.

Itís obvious to me. You donít back up the truck to a RFA. Yes, you pay him fairly, but you donít over pay beyond what is necessary
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
You suggest I am missing some point and then you believe it works like this:
1. settle on cap hit
2. Then settle on term

Not a chance.

Look, I laid out a scenario and asked, given that scenario, what the RFA does You could suspend your disbelief and think it through. I donít think it was an entirely implausible situation (donít nitpick about exact numbers, it is the principle)

If I was Tkachuk, and had to choose between a) zero dollars and not playing , or b) a bit less than I want, but playing, I would probably concede to some extent. Because my only other option is throwing away money plus a year of my career where I have a chance to win, by virtue of actually playing .

You canít say it is an economic decision that affects him life long so he needs too dollar, and then ignore that threatening to hold out means he is threatening to give up many dollars. You canít have that both ways

And I acknowledge that no, itís not good for the team to have a holdout, but it is way more risky for the player. Especially on a team where right now Tkachuk is only among the top 5

We will see what happens.
so what's your number?
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:10 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by transplant99 View Post
Agreed.

So what is that?

If someone offer sheets him at 8.5 X6......do you match or take

2 First Round Picks
1 Second Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick

Good question. I donít know. Offer sheets are pretty darn rare.

I think that is near the level where the Flames grudgingly match.

And at the same time, itís not what they should be offering themselves. The fact that they are a top team with a competitive core in his early prime has to be worth something
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:10 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
You suggest I am missing some point and then you believe it works like this:
1. settle on cap hit
2. Then settle on term

Not a chance.

So they arent settling on cap hit and term?

Then what the hell are they negotiating?

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Look, I laid out a scenario and asked, given that scenario, what the RFA does You could suspend your disbelief and think it through. I don’t think it was an entirely implausible situation (don’t nitpick about exact numbers, it is the principle)
What he, and his agent, do is not sign a deal if they dont think its fair.SOP on any pro sports business.


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If I was Tkachuk, and had to choose between a) zero dollars and not playing , or b) a bit less than I want, but playing, I would probably concede to some extent. Because my only other option is throwing away money plus a year of my career where I have a chance to win, by virtue of actually playing .
So in your eyes...the player should sign ANY deal the team gives him then? I mean otherwise he isnt making ANY money....right?

Quote:
You can’t say it is an economic decision that affects him life long so he needs too dollar, and then ignore that threatening to hold out means he is threatening to give up many dollars. You can’t have that both ways

Yes i can...i just did.

Holding out making zero dollars for 3 months or even a season where i would make 7M in an effort to obtain an extra12-16 million over the course of a deal.....seems pretty obvious no?


Quote:
And I acknowledge that no, it’s not good for the team to have a holdout, but it is way more risky for the player. Especially on a team where right now Tkachuk is only among the top 5

We will see what happens.
So he is only a top 5 player on the team now?

That explains a lot.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:11 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by transplant99 View Post
Agreed.

So what is that?

If someone offer sheets him at 8.5 X6......do you match or take

2 First Round Picks
1 Second Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick
Great question for determining highest possible price provided we are in a league where offer sheets actually happen... If Tampa offers...hell no. If Ottawa offers, maybe you think about it?
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:13 PM   #89
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so what's your number?
I donít have one yet. Seems it is lower than many, though!

I agree with most on landing on a 5-6 year term, and donít expect it to start with 8

I dunno, 5 x 7.2?
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:16 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I donít have one yet. Seems it is lower than many, though!

I agree with most on landing on a 5-6 year term, and donít expect it to start with 8

I dunno, 5 x 7.2?
And which league comparable contracts brought you to those numbers?
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:21 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by transplant99 View Post
So they arent settling on cap hit and term?

Then what the hell are they negotiating?



What he, and his agent, do is not sign a deal if they dont think its fair.SOP on any pro sports business.




So in your eyes...the player should sign ANY deal the team gives him then? I mean otherwise he isnt making ANY money....right?




Yes i can...i just did.

Holding out making zero dollars for 3 months or even a season where i would make 7M in an effort to obtain an extra12-16 million over the course of a deal.....seems pretty obvious no?


So he is only a top 5 player on the team now?

That explains a lot.
-What I said, again, is that they donít settle on cap hit, close on that and then next settle on term. That is how you outlined it. Fix one then settle the next. No. They are negotiating both at the same time.

- Re: top 5 -
Is he better than Johnny or Gio? No
Lindholm or Monahan? Debatable. They are both centres. Lindholm is better 2 way.
Thatís 4 other guys. Yeah, he is a top 5 player on the team.

- I didnít say the player should sign any deal and you know that.

- You get the principle and use different numbers. I explained clearly in my example - say the gap is 1 million per year and the term is 5 years. You donít piss away an entire 7 million in year 1 so you can make 4 million more in years 2-5.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:22 PM   #92
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And which league comparable contracts brought you to those numbers?
Dylan Larkin, Elias Lindholm and Derek Ryan. Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. William Nylander.

Just kidding.

Feel free to go ahead and outline your thoughts and justification, though.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:22 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Thanks. Your equally weird, I suppose, appreciation of that one (1) goal in the entire month of February is also great work. That goal was a beauty.

The guy had a 3 game stretch with 6 goals, including 2 very productive games, Vegas and NYR, where he got 5.

There are what, about 30 games after the all star break?

Just because the other top players crapped the bed doesn’t entitle Tkachuk to be paid like them. That’s weird, too, man. Derek Ryan was a better player than Tkachuk post all star break.

I’m not saying the power dynamic is totally one sided, but that’s the whole point of how RFA status can close the gap. At some point, the ‘R’ means you have limitations on the leverage.

All of the other situations with top dollar contracts that people mention, it is desperate GMs like Chiarelli who has to put *something* on the ice , same in Buffalo, and Toronto is nuts and Dubas is green.

It’s obvious to me. You don’t back up the truck to a RFA. Yes, you pay him fairly, but you don’t over pay beyond what is necessary
1 goal in February. Almost as impressive as Gaudreau’s 1 goal. Should we trade Gaudreau? Having 1 goal in February just seems like a really big deal, I want to make sure we’re reacting accordingly across the board.

I mean yeah, 30 games after the all star break. Better be spreading those points out. But, wait... didn’t...

...Gaudreau score 3/7 of his post ASG goals in one game?
...Monahan score half of his 20 points in 3 games, and 4/7 goals in just 2 games?

It’s almost like it’s just a thing that happens. Quick, nobody tell Barkov that his impressive 18 post ASG goals don’t mean as much because 7 of them came in 3 games. Or hey Pasternak, thanks for potting 11, but 5 came in 2 games, so please be better while your team is on their way to the Stanley Cup finals.

The argument is not that other players crapped the bed, so Tkachuk should be paid like them. It’s that bringing up his drop off is irrelevant, because it wasn’t isolated. It’s bringing context. Yeah, Tkachuk scores less, but he alone didn’t fall off a cliff, and in fact, did very well post ASG when you look at the Flames as a whole.

Yeah, I wish it were as simple as “this GM is dumb, that one is green” etc. It’s not. These guys might make these decisions, but if you don’t think they set precedent for the rest of the league then you’re not paying attention. Again: the league does not go backwards, it goes forwards. You do not change what has already been done.

In the end, “more than necessary” is something all of us agree should be avoided in contract AAV. The debate is around the definition of “necessary,” and while i’d love to believe your definition is right, I think it’s a bit naive. But I really do hope it is.

Last edited by PepsiFree; 05-26-2019 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:25 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Dylan Larkin, Elias Lindholm and Derek Ryan.
Derek Ryan Lmao. Jesus Christ this is quite the thread. Didn’t think Tkachuk could get this underrated.

Even Lindholm is a hilarious comparable. You can’t use this years Lindholm as a comparable, I would think you should understand that... but well never mind you probably do not.

Edit: see he added an edit shortly after. Don’t understand the joke tbh
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:27 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
I donít have one yet. Seems it is lower than many, though!

I agree with most on landing on a 5-6 year term, and donít expect it to start with 8

I dunno, 5 x 7.2?
Hey...if they can get him for that....awesome. Id be thrilled.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:28 PM   #96
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^ ok, Pepsi. Pay him like Gaudreau and Monahan and Pastrnak and Barkov

All are in the 5.9-6.x range.

Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 05-26-2019 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:30 PM   #97
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Derek Ryan Lmao. Jesus Christ this is quite the thread. Didn’t think Tkachuk could get this underrated.

Even Lindholm is a hilarious comparable. You can’t use this years Lindholm as a comparable, I would think you should understand that... but well never mind you probably do not.

Edit: see he added an edit shortly after. Don’t understand the joke tbh

Flash asked me to show my math. Can’t be bothered

Because I thought it was pretty obvious in the post where I said ‘I dunno, 5 x 7.2’ that I had not done the math because, well, of how I framed it. I said I didn’t have a number

So I pulled a few names out of my ass

Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 05-26-2019 at 12:33 PM.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:40 PM   #98
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well, at least you admit to being ignore list worthy.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:45 PM   #99
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^ ok, Pepsi. Pay him like Gaudreau and Monahan and Pastrnak and Barkov

All are in the 5.9-6.x range.

My whole point wasnít Ďthis GM is dumbí, so good job distilling it down to that, then saying itís wrong. Internet board level take on an internet board post.
Thatís not what I was distilling your take down to.

The point is this: the NHL changes. Youíre talking like things havenít changed, and that outliers donít affect change. Itís wishful. Trotting out things like ďwe canít pay him top 10 money if heís now top ten playerĒ without looking at all the top ten players NOT being paid that money, or other completely irrelevant factors as reasoning behind your position is just really naive. It doesnít make a lot of sense.

Even balking at 9-9.5/8 and then throwing out 7.2 over 5. UFA years cost money, 3 more years of them costs money.

1.8 extra per year for 3 extra years of UFA isnít even remotely unrealistic.
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Old 05-26-2019, 12:51 PM   #100
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Great question for determining highest possible price provided we are in a league where offer sheets actually happen... If Tampa offers...hell no. If Ottawa offers, maybe you think about it?
I actually dont take the picks regardless of who it is.

W can play the guessing game as to who will finish lower than who all day, but in the end that doesnt really matter. The lottery plays to much of a role.

So the chances of getting a player as good or better than MT with any of those picks is so low, i dont think you can take that gamble.

Now...if it is something that screws the club financially and makes it likely a better/more important player is lost to keep him? Then yes. Thankfully BT has navigated things where that isnt necessary,
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