The sport competition that brought us the best results was the American basketball league, also known as the NBA. The average effectiveness of our bets in this league was much higher than in comparison with other competitions and the overall profit was over 1700 euro! In case of the NBA, we hit the jackpot on the highest odds, which means we correctly predicted the least probable results in which the underdogs had very little chances for a win, and therefore by making few surprises, we made very impressive results.
His findings showed that ice hockey (based on NHL results) is the most luck dominated sport compared to American football, European football (soccer), baseball, basketball and chess.
Calculations that were made do not show how skilled players are. Instead, it shows how sport is capable of measuring players’ skills in its context.
One of the key thesis is the sample size. Leagues, where teams play less games are more reliant on luck than leagues in which teams play hundreds of games throughout the season.
Other important size is the number of chances team has to score in the game.
Yea cause they didn't do anything else all game to win. I know it's hard but why can't people just admit that the patriots went to Arrowhead and won that game. they held the highest scoring offense to 0 first half points and if not for a bone head decision should have been up 21-0
Thing is it does go both ways.
If the Pats lose the coin toss, and then Mahomes goes out and win's in OT the narrative is much different. It becomes how the Patriots choked a 14 pt lead, Brady threw 2 picks that cost them the game, and the defense gave up 30 points in the 4th quarter and OT combined.
The comparison to the Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl LI is actually pretty good.
14-0 at halftime vs 21-3.
Chiefs outscored Patriots 31- 17 in the 2nd half of this game vs. 25-7 for the Patriots in LI.
Difference is Brady got the chance to go out and redeem his teams "Choke" in Overtime this year, where as Matt Ryan just had to watch as Brady got to continue his team's momentum in LI.
Patriots hadn't stopped KC all 4th quarter, no doubt in my mind that KC scores a TD against an exhausted Pats defense if they win that coin toss. Hell they likely win that game in regulation if they are allowed to finish that drive instead of running out of time.
Patriots deserve a lot of credit for putting themselves in this situation every year. The fact that they are in the AFC championship game pretty much every year is a huge feat in itself and you need to be in these games in order to have to breaks go your way but you can't overlook that they've had more than there fair share of luck and good calls in some of those AFC Championship / Super Bowl games as well.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 01-22-2019 at 01:57 PM.
Here’s the win percentage of underdogs for the last five full regular seasons of the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB:
LeagueUnderdog Win %
National Football League32.60%
National Basketball Association30.26%
National Hockey League40.08%
Major League Baseball42.06%
That literally has nothing to do with it. An interception is dropped. A fumble bounces one way instead of the other. A player lines up offside. A call is missed on a TD. Who has the ball last (this one becoming arguably the most crucial element in football)? A coin toss to determine who gets the ball. Because football is purely situational and not non-stop play like other sports, individual plays determine the outcome, and those individual plays in football are subject to far more randomness or luck than other sports.
One score games are a perfect example. One year a team might go 8-2 in those games, and play at the same level the following year but go 5-5. Because a few little things changed. Randomness....luck...that's football. Betting line upsets are a pretty poor determiner of how random or lucky things are. They mostly tell you how competitive the leagues are.
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That literally has nothing to do with it. An interception is dropped. A fumble bounces one way instead of the other. A player lines up offside. A call is missed on a TD. Who has the ball last (this one becoming arguably the most crucial element in football)? A coin toss to determine who gets the ball. Because football is purely situational and not non-stop play like other sports, individual plays determine the outcome, and those individual plays in football are subject to far more randomness or luck than other sports.
One score games are a perfect example. One year a team might go 8-2 in those games, and play at the same level the following year but go 5-5. Because a few little things changed. Randomness....luck...that's football. Betting line upsets are a pretty poor determiner of how random or lucky things are. They mostly tell you how competitive the leagues are.
Well, do you have a better way than anecdotes to test your theory? I think you make an interesting point, and I want to know if it is supported by evidence.
Well, do you have a better way than anecdotes to test your theory? I think you make an interesting point, and I want to know if it is supported by evidence.
Football Outsiders. Should be the only football site people read (and Bill Barnwell on ESPN, the former head of FO). But it makes sense doesn't it? The Edelman sequence in the fourth is actually a perfect example. The ball is literally an inch from touching him on the punt. Maybe next time the ball travels on a slightly different trajectory and hits him, or maybe it goes totally the other way and there's no controversy at all. Or on the INT, that's a ball that he would normally catch. Maybe next time he does. Or maybe next time the ball deflects the other way away from Sorensen and it's incomplete. Obviously the fact it's a ball with wildly inconsistent bounces and flight patterns adds to this (inconsistent officiating as well of course).
If anything I'm actually complimenting the Patriots because despite the randomness and luck involved in football, they just keep on winning. But maybe on Feb 3 we go to OT and the coin goes the other way. That's football though.
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Michael Mauboussin wrote a book called The Success Equation: Untangling skill and luck in Business, Sports and Investing a few years back. He goes through a fairly rigorous analysis and in terms of sports he puts hockey as the most reliant on luck, with football next and then basketball and baseball. It's a really interesting book, if you like that kind of reading.
I could see it, I don't think I'd like Thomas or Payton or maybe Ingram if they were elsewhere, they definitely not short on personality..my initial wanting the Rams to lose feeling is the same reason you wanted the Saints to lose today haha...minus hating the coach, I like McVay
Not that it really matters but somewhat makes sense.
The video I added above is interesting. It would confirm that the aspects of the NFL that emphasize luck over skill, is the limited number of games, and more limited number of moments or plays where players can make a difference. On the other hand, the most important player (QB) (and a good coach) is involved in nearly every offensive play, which weighs more on the skill side of things.
Hockey was found in the video to be the sport with the most "luck" because the most skilled players are only on the ice about a third of the time, and scoring opportunities are less (compared to basketball for instance).
I will look for Football Outsiders in the future. Thanks.
I must've missed that, what did they do to mock the dog masks? At first I thought you meant they copied the Eagles ski masks which I was going to say the Saints did that first, but now I know the masks you're talking about. I'm genuinely not aware of what happened.
I didn't care about the Choppa Style dance after the pick, that was kinda beauty actually. My particular issue was with Peters and Fowler getting all up in Payton & co's face at centerfield after during postgame handshakes, trying to instigate some more. That's like eliminating a team in hockey then during the series end handshake, jumping in the team you beat's faces and talking more crap. Clown move.
Because everyone that's not a Cowboys fan hates the Cowboys nobody was shedding tears for them when Bryant's catch was ruled no catch against the Packers in 2014 but now we have masses all upset for the Saints? Officiating in all sports is pretty flawed and teams get screwed on a regular basis. If you can't handle that then being involved in cheering for a professional sports team isn't for you. This lawsuit business is total nonsense. If I was a Saints fan I would be more upset that game came down to that call because they settled for too many field goals and Payton didn't call that last sequence very well where they should have run out more clock.
Oh yeah the lawsuit is ridiculous and will never happen, but I love the passion down there. MAN that entire city just lives and breathes that team, it's so cool. And the parties all over the streets EVERYWHERE after the divisional win..its just a very passionate, emotional city in general, which the Saints are an outlet for. All this extra push is definitely silly and will go nowhere, but I'm not surprised it's happening.
And it's probably because of how egregious it was..this wasn't some Calvin Johnson rule where it's close, that was a straight helmet to helmet mugging. Even with a flag, it's one of the worst PI's I've ever seen...and it didn't even get called, and directly changed the outcome of the game. Call that penalty and that game is over dude. 3 kneels, walk off chip shot FG and you're in the Super Bowl. I'm still shocked..it just felt greasy.
But yes, credit to the Rams as they had the mo' that second half and beyond. They overcame a brutal start and losing the OT coin toss to get a W, Saints blew it in OT. Brees had a shaky second half and never should've forced that OT throw. But that game should've already been over.
Saints also won the coin toss in OT. Brady and the Patriots made that count by going all the way down the field and scoring 6 points. Brees threw an interception that pretty well ended the game for them. In these big games it usually comes down to what your best players do in the biggest moments.
Chiefs D vs Rams D...But yes, as mentioned in my post above, Brees and co blew it in OT. Brees did not look great that second half and beyond, quite a few missed throws. Ingram running backwards on first down in OT, turning it into a 2nd & 16 I bet was partly why Brees forced that pass to avoid the sack, but it was a bad call. Still not going to change the fact people will be furious. You're going to see that non-PI clip for years, for good reason.
EDIT: I promise I won't be continually going on and on about this all week lol, but just rehashing this talk made me re-visit the clip and I never saw this video with this angle before, looks even worse than the original...so infuriating. How is that not PI??
Regarding the lawsuit, since the US Supreme Court ruling about gambling is opening things up, I could see there being a legitimate lawsuit being filed against a league for an obvious blown call. The NFL is angling for federal legislation to get a piece of the gambling revenue by way of an "Integrity Fee" and I would think they do owe a duty of care to ensure the integrity of the game in exchange for such fees.
The NFL is investigating a suspicious green beam that repeatedly appeared on Brady’s uniform, helmet and skin during the AFC Championship on Sunday. As KMBC's William Joy shows through images posted on Twitter, the beam nears Brady’s face several times, including during crucial moments of the game. One such occasion arose when Kansas City Chiefs safety Daniel Sorensen intercepted a pass thrown by Brady. Imagery shared by KCTV’s David Harris also reveals that the beam reached the helmet of Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Derrick Nnadi and possibly other Chiefs and New England Patriots players who were positioned near Brady.
