Russia invades Ukraine

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Yes the Ukrainians are hurting in terms of casualties, but the Ukrainians are probably taking more casualties in Bakhmut since they are holding forces back and doing things like rationing shell consumption/sending troops off to get trained so they don't have the force concentration at the front to hold Russians off better than they currently are. General Zaluzhny has asked forgiveness to the frontline troops bearing the brunt of the casualties for this.



It might be understating it a bit to say Ukraine doesn't have the capability to draft more men, they have a draft system in place that they are not really using it they way Russia is because they have a lot of volunteers and they have a much longer training lead time. They also don't throw men immediately into the fight and are holding them back to get them trained in UK, US, and other NATO countries for the push; Just the UK saying they will train over 25K+ troops this year and are looking to increase that number. This doesn't count other NATO countries training programs.



Thing is I don't see Russia improvement their training for their conscripts/Wagnerites any time soon so don't really see the loss ratios increasing in Russia's favor. Even their best tank divisions (1st Guards Tank Army) are getting old BMP-1s and T-62s (based on OSINT) which should make the Russian loss ratios even worse when the Western armor arrives. There have also been reports from Russian milbloggers of mutinies with several units (like the 155th separate marine brigade, etc) refusing to fight after having suffering heavy losses, being reconstituted (filled with replacements), and thrown back into the front multiple times. What will barely armed and trained conscripts do except keep dying at current or higher than current ratios vs. Ukrainians? That to me says exhaustion for Russia.

It depends on what you think Putin's plan is.

Inexperienced conscripts with bad equipment can't advance, that's true. But with dug in defences (which they do have), conscripts can make any Ukranian advance painfully slow. They gained ground on Russia in Kherson and Kharkiv because Russia didn't have defensive lines set. The current front lines are very strongly built in. Many people smarter than me think Ukraine can make some advances, but they all point to the fact that we're only getting rosy exciting news from Ukraine because they need the west to be optimistic so the weapons flow. Ukraine needs these weapons for survival as much as offense. If the west gets weary, is over. Putin thinks he can bleed Ukraine long enough for the world to give up or the Republicans to take over.

[FlameOn]

Russian jet intercepts, harasses, and then crashed into US Reaper drone in international waters over the Black Sea. First direct engagement between a Russian and US asset I can think of.

A Russian fighter jet has collided with a US drone, causing the unmanned US aircraft to crash into the Black Sea, the American military says.

It says the drone was on a routine mission in international airspace when two Russian jets tried to intercept it.

The US European Command said the crash on Tuesday was the result of an "unprofessional act by the Russians".

US and allied forces will continue to operate in the area, it added. There is no word on the incident from Russia.

"Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9," the US statement said.

Several times before the collision the Su-27 fighter jets dumped fuel on the drone in a "reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

That's the thing that so many who advocate for some kind of peace deal seem to be forgetting. Any ceasefire agreement just gives Russia time to rearm so they can try another full scale invasion in 5-10 years, why would Ukrainians accept that? There is no long term peace option with a terrorist state like Russia, the only option for real peace is the destruction of their military complex and/or full regime change

I am not an expert in UA politics, but have been following it a while so I kind of know their system and obviously get my fair share of updates from my wife and such. There is absolutely NO scenario where UA will willingly give up their land to strike a peace "agreement" with Russia. None. They will have to kill each and every Ukrainian before that happens.

However if you would have asked this question pre-2022 invasion , you would have gotten a different answer. I asked many people in Kharkiv when I visited the first couple times in 2018 their opinions on the occupation in Donbas and Crimea. Shockingly, the general consensus from almost everyone was that Crimea was Russian before so it wasn't a big deal to give it back. As well the people living in Luhansk and Donestk aligned themselves more with Russia than Ukraine and often felt they were rivals compared to the people more to the central and west of the country. They did however agree that the annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas weren't done properly (legit voting, referendum, etc) and could have been done better, but by and large it wasn't as big of a deal since it was mostly Russian sympathizers their anyways.

That all completely changed Feb 24 when the invasion happened and russian soldiers started raping babies/children and brutalizing the population. A population that those regions saw as brothers with lots of interconnections. Literally overnight those regions are now almost entirely pro-UA. It has been fascinating to watch this transition of a population over such a relatively short completely change their view. lmagine if you will most Trump supporters changing their stance within a week. Craziness.

Each and every Ukrainian, regardless of where they are in the world, knows full well their is no peace deal to be made with russia that won't get broken in a few years time. This is something Westerns, whom we make our deals in boardrooms and generally do it in good faith, fail to understand. And as long as those westerns keep assuming, falsely, that russians have the same mentality that we do about honoring deals, the more this nonsense goes on.

I really hope the west wakes up one day and gives Ukraine the striking blows to end this thing by force. Because that is how it will end, and what russians understand; force. Not peace deals. Not handshakes. Force. You don't make deals with terrorists. You arm yourself to the teeth and get ready to kick the #### out of them when they try it again.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Russian jet intercepts, harasses, and then crashed into US Reaper drone in international waters over the Black Sea. First direct engagement between a Russian and US asset I can think of.



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64957792

This was no whoopsie moment by a bungling pilot.

Dumping fuel on it, and clipping its propeller are pretty deliberate.

[MoneyGuy]

When crap like this happens I’m thankful tRump isn’t in charge.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

When crap like this happens I’m thankful tRump isn’t in charge.

Trump's said he'd just have given Ukraine to Putin.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023...f-ukraine.html

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Trump's said he'd just have given Ukraine to Putin.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023...f-ukraine.html

This is why the war really needs to come to a conclusion before the next American elections. It will be catastrophic if Trump gets back into power, or someone like him. Already starting to see cracks in Europe with countries like Czech Rep. starting to feel political pressure to step out.

As much as I don't want to see Ukraine give up an inch, I would hate it even more if the Western support drops off and lose their advantage in negotiations. I would not want to be Zelenskyy, that is for sure.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

When crap like this happens I’m thankful tRump isn’t in charge.

Trump would have flown to Russia, apologized, and complimented Putin on destroying the competition in his latest ice hockey tournament.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

This is why the war really needs to come to a conclusion before the next American elections. It will be catastrophic if Trump gets back into power, or someone like him. Already starting to see cracks in Europe with countries like Czech Rep. starting to feel political pressure to step out.

As much as I don't want to see Ukraine give up an inch, I would hate it even more if the Western support drops off and lose their advantage in negotiations. I would not want to be Zelenskyy, that is for sure.

This is Putin's game plan, he's been actively getting the FSB to work with right wing elements in many countries. These guys are sloppy and they aren't even changing the messaging between the countries. Like the PRO group in Prague literally uses "Czech First" recycled slogans ex. "America First". Lots of the Czech "protestors"/Russians are running around with "Z" and Russian flags and anti-NATO effigies in some of those videos.

Just like in Serbia and Georgia with the recent pro-Russian, foreign news laws that Russian backed political parties were trying to push there. It's Russian backed protests masquerading as legitimate political opposition and eroding support for Ukraine. Some get turned back at the border, others manage to find local backing. Zelensky is in a tough spot, this Ukraine spring offensive needs to show results to stamp out a lot of this "settle by ceding territory" Russian position that a lot of the NATO country right wingers are pushing.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

This is why the war really needs to come to a conclusion before the next American elections. It will be catastrophic if Trump gets back into power, or someone like him. Already starting to see cracks in Europe with countries like Czech Rep. starting to feel political pressure to step out.

As much as I don't want to see Ukraine give up an inch, I would hate it even more if the Western support drops off and lose their advantage in negotiations. I would not want to be Zelenskyy, that is for sure.

Honestly and its my opinion, If this war is still going on in the next election no matter who wins, its going to be with a mandate of detangling from this war and pushing for a peace plan as the sheer number of the dollars spent, and the bloody stalemate that that war will be if its still going are going to create a certain amount of anti ukraine war sentiment.

Even though America is not actively fighting in this war, there's still a cost of sending weapons over and encouraging Ukraine to keep sending kids into the meat grinder.

I think I read last week that the Ukrainian military had lost about $130,000 soldiers. As of Feb 8th the Military had 500,000 men under uniform. If they keep taking large casualties over the next year and a half when do they lose the capability to fight.

Russia's military has been absolutely gutted losing something like 260,000 men, but they have an active military that's close to something like 1.5 million in uniform. Russia has lost a lot of their really strong category A units in terms of their best equipment and best trained men.

But Russia unless they make a deal with China has to be running to low levels of ammunition, especially advanced land and aircraft based missiles.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I am not an expert in UA politics, but have been following it a while so I kind of know their system and obviously get my fair share of updates from my wife and such. There is absolutely NO scenario where UA will willingly give up their land to strike a peace "agreement" with Russia. None. They will have to kill each and every Ukrainian before that happens.

However if you would have asked this question pre-2022 invasion , you would have gotten a different answer. I asked many people in Kharkiv when I visited the first couple times in 2018 their opinions on the occupation in Donbas and Crimea. Shockingly, the general consensus from almost everyone was that Crimea was Russian before so it wasn't a big deal to give it back. As well the people living in Luhansk and Donestk aligned themselves more with Russia than Ukraine and often felt they were rivals compared to the people more to the central and west of the country. They did however agree that the annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas weren't done properly (legit voting, referendum, etc) and could have been done better, but by and large it wasn't as big of a deal since it was mostly Russian sympathizers their anyways.

That all completely changed Feb 24 when the invasion happened and russian soldiers started raping babies/children and brutalizing the population. A population that those regions saw as brothers with lots of interconnections. Literally overnight those regions are now almost entirely pro-UA. It has been fascinating to watch this transition of a population over such a relatively short completely change their view. lmagine if you will most Trump supporters changing their stance within a week. Craziness.

Each and every Ukrainian, regardless of where they are in the world, knows full well their is no peace deal to be made with russia that won't get broken in a few years time. This is something Westerns, whom we make our deals in boardrooms and generally do it in good faith, fail to understand. And as long as those westerns keep assuming, falsely, that russians have the same mentality that we do about honoring deals, the more this nonsense goes on.

I really hope the west wakes up one day and gives Ukraine the striking blows to end this thing by force. Because that is how it will end, and what russians understand; force. Not peace deals. Not handshakes. Force. You don't make deals with terrorists. You arm yourself to the teeth and get ready to kick the #### out of them when they try it again.

Salient points, and they cut to what has bothered me about this war since the beginning. It was totally unnecessary. I think a scenario could have emerged where sufficient russian population in the eastern provinces and Crimea leads to a democratic split and then fold into Russia. Russia just couldn't wait and their authoritarian leaders are anathema to the diplomatic, democratic process. They don't understand it enough to see why it could have worked that way if they waited and tried.

Russia, from the time of Catherine 2 at least, has really only understood occupation as a way of gaining territory. Perhaps even beyond that horizon, but I'm thinking the partition of poland is a good example of this mindset evolving and never leaving that nation.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Honestly and its my opinion, If this war is still going on in the next election no matter who wins, its going to be with a mandate of detangling from this war and pushing for a peace plan as the sheer number of the dollars spent, and the bloody stalemate that that war will be if its still going are going to create a certain amount of anti ukraine war sentiment.

Even though America is not actively fighting in this war, there's still a cost of sending weapons over and encouraging Ukraine to keep sending kids into the meat grinder.

I think I read last week that the Ukrainian military had lost about $130,000 soldiers. As of Feb 8th the Military had 500,000 men under uniform. If they keep taking large casualties over the next year and a half when do they lose the capability to fight.

Russia's military has been absolutely gutted losing something like 260,000 men, but they have an active military that's close to something like 1.5 million in uniform. Russia has lost a lot of their really strong category A units in terms of their best equipment and best trained men.

But Russia unless they make a deal with China has to be running to low levels of ammunition, especially advanced land and aircraft based missiles.

Russia does not have 1.5 Million soldiers and probably has less than 700,000 even with the newly mobilized

[afc wimbledon]

Russia cannot afford an indefinite economic embargo though, that is doing the real damage, China isnt going to replace Germany and the EU as Russia's trade partner

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

This is Putin's game plan, he's been actively getting the FSB to work with right wing elements in many countries. These guys are sloppy and they aren't even changing the messaging between the countries. Like the PRO group in Prague literally uses "Czech First" recycled slogans ex. "America First". Lots of the Czech "protestors"/Russians are running around with "Z" and Russian flags and anti-NATO effigies in some of those videos.

Just like in Serbia and Georgia with the recent pro-Russian, foreign news laws that Russian backed political parties were trying to push there. It's Russian backed protests masquerading as legitimate political opposition and eroding support for Ukraine. Some get turned back at the border, others manage to find local backing. Zelensky is in a tough spot, this Ukraine spring offensive needs to show results to stamp out a lot of this "settle by ceding territory" Russian position that a lot of the NATO country right wingers are pushing.

Yeah, the Russian game plan is to force wedges in the Western coalition to create division and diminished support, and NATO's game plan has been to try and weaken Putin's regime and hope he loses power somehow.

At the beginning, I would have put my money on the West to outlast Russia in the waiting game, but Russia and Putin are nothing if not resilient. Unfortunately, democracies have pressure points and Putin knows how to exploit those. I am losing hope that the West can win the game on this end, so Ukraine really needs to win it on the battlefield and time is really important.

I should say though, that I can see Ukraine fighting until the bitter end, regardless of what happens with the Western coalition. How that turns out is a coin flip IMO. I won't bet against Ukraine, but I am worried about it.

[Azure]

It really depends on whether Ukraine will be able to fully arm for the spring offensive.

There was a long article in the Washington Post yesterday that talked about Ukraine not exactly getting what they are needing, and even struggling to get trained troops to the frontline.

That is exactly what I'm afraid of. You can't question the heart, but the West is already starting to twiddle twaddle JUST with the weapons needed to drive Russia back this spring.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This was no whoopsie moment by a bungling pilot.

Dumping fuel on it, and clipping its propeller are pretty deliberate.

They must have been training with the Chinese

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Russia does not have 1.5 Million soldiers and probably has less than 700,000 even with the newly mobilized

Russia also needs soldiers fit it's many other fronts. I of they YOLO everything into Ukraine, they lose even larger territories elsewhere.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by blankall

Russia also needs soldiers fit it's many other fronts. I of they YOLO everything into Ukraine, they lose even larger territories elsewhere.

Yeah Russia has a massive internal security apparatus that is counted into it's military numbers, and Putin is so worried about a possible uprising that he's been pouring new funds into them all through the war.

He's also still playing power games by playing the various Russian PMC:s against each other. The Russian military is also organized into fairly separate armies, with each territory largely responsible for training and equipping their own units, just so that too much power isn't focused anywhere except with him.

This is a major reason why the Russian military has so much trouble with organizing unified efforts or even learning from their mistakes.

He's literally more worried about his troops and/or his people turning against him than winning the war.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah, the Russian game plan is to force wedges in the Western coalition to create division and diminished support, and NATO's game plan has been to try and weaken Putin's regime and hope he loses power somehow.

At the beginning, I would have put my money on the West to outlast Russia in the waiting game, but Russia and Putin are nothing if not resilient. Unfortunately, democracies have pressure points and Putin knows how to exploit those. I am losing hope that the West can win the game on this end, so Ukraine really needs to win it on the battlefield and time is really important.

I should say though, that I can see Ukraine fighting until the bitter end, regardless of what happens with the Western coalition. How that turns out is a coin flip IMO. I won't bet against Ukraine, but I am worried about it.

One thing I don't get for Czechs and other eastern block countries citizens that actually follow the "peace by any means"/"NATO Out" line of thinking (recent "protests" in Czechia). With the Chinese tried to broker something, Russia just stated they will not stop and that "there is no diplomatic option they will accept" other than a capitulation and disarmament of Ukraine. They've also been shown actively planning the takeover of other former Warsaw pact countries in leaked FSB documents; this includes Georgia, Moldova, Serbia, and Belarus. Czechs almost certainly got it's own document.

Without force of arms to force a change in Russian thinking through military exhaustion, or a change in Russian leadership, all former Warsaw pact states are in danger. Baltic states understand this. What exactly do these right wingers want here? Just surrender and give Russia what they want? It's stupid.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

One thing I don't get for Czechs and other eastern block countries citizens that actually follow the "peace by any means"/"NATO Out" line of thinking (recent "protests" in Czechia). With the Chinese tried to broker something, Russia just stated they will not stop and that "there is no diplomatic option they will accept" other than a capitulation and disarmament of Ukraine. They've also been shown actively planning the takeover of other former Warsaw pact countries in leaked FSB documents; this includes Georgia, Moldova, Serbia, and Belarus. Czechs almost certainly got it's own document.

Without force of arms to force a change in Russian thinking through military exhaustion, or a change in Russian leadership, all former Warsaw pact states are in danger. Baltic states understand this. What exactly do these right wingers want here? Just surrender and give Russia what they want? It's stupid.

Unfortunately, I think there are a lot of young people who just cannot relate to how bad things sucked living under Russian authoritarian rule, especially for non-Russian people. They are easily swayed into the "two sides" argument as if NATO and Russia are two-sides of the same coin, or even worse, have bought into Soviet nostalgic propaganda. The uprisings in Czechoslovakia and Hungary are practically out of their living memory and they had a relatively easier ride into Western integration since the fall of the USSR.

It's a slightly different story in the Baltics, where the massacres are a little more fresh having occurred in the 1990s, or in Poland where WW2 genocidal massacres occurred at the hands of Russians and the former communist government even buried the evidence and blamed it on the Germans. These young people need to look at how determined Ukrainians are, and even if they can't relate directly, realize that there is a reason why they will fight to the death to protect their sovereignty from Russia.