09-09-2019, 12:23 PM
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#21
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV
Dallas yes, but I'd take the Avs roster over the Preds every time especially with the Turris uncertainty.
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I actually like what Nashville has done this summer, and I am still taking them ahead of Colorado.
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09-09-2019, 12:33 PM
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#22
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Celebrated Square Root Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geeoff
Any of you cowards brave enough to put a little action on Ottawa at 500-1?
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That kind of long shot is boring to me. The real long shot game is teams like Carolina or Vegas their first year. A team that's a little unknown and could do something if things go right.
Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.
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09-09-2019, 12:39 PM
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#23
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.
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or $2500 as the odds go.
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09-09-2019, 01:34 PM
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#24
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
That kind of long shot is boring to me. The real long shot game is teams like Carolina or Vegas their first year. A team that's a little unknown and could do something if things go right.
Longshotting a team like Ottawa on a year like this is like tossing $5 out the front door and hoping $500 comes flying back in.
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I was trying to be facetious. I think that Ottawa's odds are much worse than 500-1.
Maybe more like 10000-1
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09-09-2019, 01:38 PM
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#25
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boca Raton, FL
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Flames have the same odds at the Panthers.
I can't tell if that's an indictment on the Flames' playoff performance last year, or if they truly just believe that the Panthers are a diamond in the rough about to hit their stride. Seems very odd either way.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by ResAlien
If we can't fall in love with replaceable bottom 6 players then the terrorists have won.
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09-10-2019, 10:04 AM
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#26
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geeoff
I was trying to be facetious. I think that Ottawa's odds are much worse than 500-1.
Maybe more like 10000-1
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Scroopy Noopers For This Useful Post:
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09-10-2019, 10:16 AM
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#27
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Regina
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/
· TB @6–1
· VGK @ 7–1
· TO @ 10–1
· Colorado, Boston @ 12–1
· StL, Dallas @ 16–1
· Calgary, Florida, Washington, Nashville @ 20–1
· SJ, Winnipeg @ 25–1
· Arizona @ 30–1
· Vancouver @ 40–1
· Edmonton @ 50–1
· Montreal @ 60–1
· LA and Anaheim @ 200–1
· Ottawa @ 500–1
Vegas, Colorado, and Dallas all look really overvalued to me (the payout for VGK to win the Pacific Division is 1-1!), and ranking Edmonton ahead of Montreal is hilarious.
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Vegas at 7-1 really ??? lol
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09-10-2019, 10:34 AM
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#28
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlh2640
Vegas at 7-1 really ??? lol
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Even more ridiculous is that they are paying out 1-1 on bets to win the Pacific Division.
Make your bets now!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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09-11-2019, 09:14 AM
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#29
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Even more ridiculous is that they are paying out 1-1 on bets to win the Pacific Division.
Make your bets now!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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What are the odds for the Flames winning the Pacific?
The 20-1 odds on the Flames winning the SC might show that the "smart" money doesn't like the way the Flames are built for the playoffs.
The Jets at 25-1 ??? They lost Trouba 8, Myers 6, Chiarot 3.5 and Tanev 3.5 as well as Hayes 7M who all signed 4+ years at that cap hit.
28 M in 2019-20 Cap hit that was on the Jets playoff roster missing and replaced by Pionk 3M.
If the Flames are 20-1 the Jets should be 50-1
How did Toronto improve so much and the Flames regress?
Marleau Kadri Hyman Connor Brown Gardiner Hainsey Zaitsev Dermott out
Kerfoot, Barrie, Ceci, Spezza in
Last year Matthews and Marner were a combined cap hit of less than 2M
The betting world does not believe the Flames are a top 5 team like their 2nd place regular season and 289 goals +62 goal differential would indicate.
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09-11-2019, 10:22 AM
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#30
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
...The betting world does not believe the Flames are a top 5 team like their 2nd place regular season and 289 goals +62 goal differential would indicate.
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And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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09-11-2019, 10:38 AM
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#31
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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What are the odds for the Flames winning the Pacific?
I found it myself:
ODDS TO WIN THE 2019-20 PACIFIC DIVISION (4/15/20)
Team Odds
Vegas Golden Knights 1/1
San Jose Sharks 9/2
Calgary Flames 4/1
hard to trust a site that 4.5 is less than 4.
Last edited by ricardodw; 09-11-2019 at 11:12 AM.
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09-11-2019, 11:08 AM
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#32
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
And this should not come as a surprise to anyone since the odds are not purely a product of performance expectations. Betting houses need to make money, so in addition to calculating on the basis of projections, that also need to factor in the popularity of one team over another among the betters—odds are affected by where the money is wagered, a lot of which is not necessarily all that “smart.”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Holds true in most cases but hard to believe that the Winnipeg Jets are a popular team.
It would be a shock if the Flames did not lock up a playoff spot with a good margin of error. Winnipeg is supposed to be in for a battle to get a wild card spot. 4 teams in their division have lower odds to win the SC.
The teams with the largest fan bases NYR 30-1 and Chicago 40-1 would be teams who I would think have the odds shortened because of their popularity.
I think the Hawks at 40-1 might be the best bet on the board. 6 pts out of the playoffs last year and they did this mainly without an NHL level goalie... Lehner changes that! The Hawks will be the best team that Lehner has played behind.
Have the Jets become the Green Bay Packers of the NHL (without the winning tradition)
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09-11-2019, 11:16 AM
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#33
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/
· TB @6–1
· VGK @ 7–1
· TO @ 10–1
· Colorado, Boston @ 12–1
· StL, Dallas @ 16–1
· Calgary, Florida, Washington, Nashville @ 20–1
· SJ, Winnipeg @ 25–1
· Arizona @ 30–1
· Vancouver @ 40–1
· Edmonton @ 50–1
· Montreal @ 60–1
· LA and Anaheim @ 200–1
· Ottawa @ 500–1
Vegas, Colorado, and Dallas all look really overvalued to me (the payout for VGK to win the Pacific Division is 1-1!), and ranking Edmonton ahead of Montreal is hilarious.
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Why would you post something dated June 15... before Free agency!!
Thanks for wasting my time!
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09-11-2019, 11:19 AM
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#34
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: The Bay Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
Why would you post something dated June 15... before Free agency!!
Thanks for wasting my time!
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Payback's a you-know-what, isn't it?
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09-11-2019, 11:38 AM
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#35
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Vancouver, BC
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What was the St. Louis Blues' odds to win the 2019 Stanley Cup last year, on Sept 11, 2018?
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09-11-2019, 11:40 AM
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#36
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowlord
What was the St. Louis Blues' odds to win the 2019 Stanley Cup last year, on Sept 11, 2018?
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Without looking, I would guess they were actually pretty high. The Blues made a tonne of off-season changes last summer, and were widely being touted as a pre-season favourite to go far in the playoffs. The big surprise was not that they won the Stanley Cup, it was how awful they were in 2019.
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09-11-2019, 12:21 PM
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#38
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
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The fact that the Edmonton Oilers were paying out inside of the top-fifteen (and ahead of the Flames) last Fall should speak volumes as to the correlation between Vegas odds and actual results.
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Textcritic For This Useful Post:
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09-11-2019, 01:58 PM
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#39
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Voted for Kodos
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Some teams are always going to have odds that are too high, simply becasue there are too many homers that will put money down on them, no matter what the odds are.
These teams include:
Toronto
Edmonton
Las Vegas.
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