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Old 09-06-2017, 12:02 PM   #41
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Its hard to compare because he wasn't getting top six linemates or 1st unit PP time for that stretch.

58 point pace is pretty good from the third line.

If you include playoffs the paces change to:

70 points without McDavid
83 points with McDavid

I'm not going to argue that Mcdavid has zero effect, but it seems like Draisaitl wasn't doing too bad on his own either.
And 8.5 million for even 70 points is bad, and that's probably his upper limit for production without McDoofus.

I look forward to Leon falling short of that (if he plays on his own line), and 6.75MM Gaudreau hitting 80 points, then pointing and laughing at the Oilers.
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:11 PM   #42
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So outside of his 7 game pointless steak, Draisaitl put up 17 points in the other 17 games.

So Draisaitl was PPG playing without Mcdavid...if you exclude the seven games where he didn't get any points.
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:16 PM   #43
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I think the list is decent and I have no problem with where they placed the Flames. What I don't understand, is how can Philadelphia and Washington be in the same group? Washington should still be a top 8 favourite at least.
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:17 PM   #44
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The Oilers can win the West this season, mainly because Connor McDavid is on the Sidney Crosby Career Arc and that means he should play for the Stanley Cup in Year 3.
My issue with this statement is that you can argue the Malkin Career Arc was a bigger factor than the Cosby Arc in regards to their first two trips to the Stanley Cup finals. The Oilers don't have the 1/2 line combination that Penguins team had. Draisaitl centering his own line has not remotely resembled his play beside McDavid.

I agree with others in that the Capitals are kind of getting overlooked. They still have a solid team and great head coach.

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Old 09-06-2017, 01:19 PM   #45
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I think the Ducks are on a bit of a slow decline. They have a great young defense group, good not great goaltending, but their best forwards are getting long on the tooth and declining. I think they will be in the mix for the playoffs as always but I don't see them as a true cup contender.
And if the Flames had John Gibson our goalie we wouldn't be counting on a .920-.930 sav % and being a president trophy contender?

The only rationale to discounting a 3rd year pro coming off .920 and .924 sv %'s is that if he played behind the Flames skaters and system he would not put up those elite numbers. Carey Price did not have a better sv% than Gibson's .924 until Price's 7th season.

Mike Smith... the Flames current hope in goal, had a better year 6 seasons ago than either of Gibson's last 2 seasons and none before or since.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:44 PM   #46
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So Draisaitl was PPG playing without Mcdavid...if you exclude the seven games where he didn't get any points.
If you include every game he played on his own line he scored at a 70 point pace.

That's top 20 in league scoring territory.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:57 PM   #47
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This is going to be such a delicious season to watch unfold. The hype over with the Oilers is over the moon, and the answer to everything about their team is "because McDavid."

The best free agent signings? Jokinen and Rattie. Why? Because of McDavid! They're both going to score lights out, because McDavid turned Maroon into a 25-30 goal guy. Problem is that neither will get to play with him unless McDavid never comes off the ice.

Porous backend? No worries, because of McDavid! The blueline just has to give the puck to the greatest player to every grace the game and it is miraculously going to get out of the zone and never return. McDavid drives the play in all three zones, didn't you know?

The Oilers are going to be the best skating team in the west, and it won't even be close. Why? Because McDavid. Forget that the Oilers will have slugs like Lucic, Maroon, Kaissan, Strome, and so on, McDavid instantly turns them into speedsters. They can just get in McDavid's jet-like slipstream and ride to the net at supersonic speeds!

Draisaitl is going to be the answer to their 2nd line center situation, because of? You guessed it! Because McDavid! I would argue that the only reason Draisaitl did what he did last season was because of McDavid. If McDavid turned Maroon into a 27 goal guy, what effect did he have on Draisaitl? I would suggest very much the same. It'll be interesting to watch what Draisaitl produces once the best offensive player in the game is no longer setting him up.

The Oilers are set up for a spectacular fall this year, and it is "because McDavid." No player can do all the things the pundits are expecting. No one player can lift a team up and get the performance out of them like being promoted. The Oiler fans are lapping this up and have the parade route planned. Hell, they have the statue already cast and have the place picked out for it. It will be glorious to watch this team fall on its face and struggle, because McDavid can't do everything.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:04 PM   #48
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If you include every game he played on his own line he scored at a 70 point pace.



That's top 20 in league scoring territory.


I thought you said it was a 58 point pace earlier in this thread? Is the 70 including playoffs? In my opinion that 27 % shooting percentage skews his playoff numbers quite a bit and won't be sustainable.

You're making lots of good points I just thought that last bit was numerous.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:15 PM   #49
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I think the Ducks are on a bit of a slow decline. They have a great young defense group, good not great goaltending, but their best forwards are getting long on the tooth and declining. I think they will be in the mix for the playoffs as always but I don't see them as a true cup contender.
Not to mention a number of key injuries on their back end. We could see an older team that is slow out of the gate. We all saw what that did to the Flames last year, the slow start I mean. I almost see a situation where the Flames and ducks have a trade off in standing position for much of the year. But what the crap do I know?
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:30 PM   #50
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If you include every game he played on his own line he scored at a 70 point pace.

That's top 20 in league scoring territory.
No, that's not how it works around here. Mcdavid and Draisaitl are liabilities. Having two of the best young players in the game is a burden because of their salaries.

And those two have shown amazing chemistry when together. Which is also bad for the Oilers because............well it's just bad.

Tough times ahead.
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Old 09-06-2017, 03:21 PM   #51
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On what metric are we basing this on?
Winning? Improving teams?

If you're suggesting Babcock isn't one of the best coaches in the league I'd say you're crazy.
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Old 09-06-2017, 03:50 PM   #52
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I thought you said it was a 58 point pace earlier in this thread? Is the 70 including playoffs? In my opinion that 27 % shooting percentage skews his playoff numbers quite a bit and won't be sustainable.

You're making lots of good points I just thought that last bit was numerous.
You gotta include the peaks and the valleys.
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Old 09-06-2017, 05:02 PM   #53
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I'd make a few changes:
-Oilers should be boom or bust. Way too much hype. They had one improved season due to 3 players and could either keep improving or fall back to earth.
-Lightning should be boom or bust. A good team on paper but they did still miss the playoffs last season. If they stay healthy they are a contender but a bit of bad luck will have them on the bubble again.
-Caps should be a contender. Yes they lost some pieces however they still have two great centres, a top goal scorer, and a top goalie. If they ever figure out how to get past the Pens they will win the cup.
-Flyers should be on the up swing. They have made some solid moves and are improving but there is no chance they could have a boom season even if everything goes right.
-San Jose and LA should be swapped. The Sharks will fall in a year or two but are only two years from a finals appearance and still have an excellent defence, goal scorers, and a solid goalie. The Kings on the other hand will keep falling due to a lack of scoring from aging players with bad contracts.
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