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Old 09-05-2017, 10:44 PM   #21
Mr.Coffee
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I actually don't see Pittsburgh as a contender, which I know sounds ridiculous.

They lost goaltending depth, that they've relied on for both of the previous seasons. They've lost forward line depth. I'm not really sure about that defence (never was, but they do surprise I guess).

And the notion of a 3-peat and 3 seasons of the intense long-term grind that the NHL is today, I just don't like their odds at all.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:00 PM   #22
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ODDS TO WIN 2018 WESTERN CONFERENCE (6/5/18)
Team Odds
Edmonton Oilers 5/1
Chicago Blackhawks 6/1
Anaheim Ducks 7/1
Dallas Stars 7/1
Nashville Predators 7/1
Minnesota Wild 8/1
Los Angeles Kings 11/1
San Jose Sharks 11/1
Calgary Flames 14/1
St. Louis Blues 14/1
Winnipeg Jets 25/1
Arizona Coyotes 50/1
Vancouver Canucks 50/1
Colorado Avalanche 66/1
Vegas Golden Knights 66/1
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:04 PM   #23
Mr.Coffee
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weird seeing LA above Calgary and St.Louis there. And Winnipeg looks a bit too low too, they could surprise some people.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:05 PM   #24
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This is just for the division.

Edmonton Oilers 2.70
Anaheim Ducks 3.69
Los Angeles Kings 5.76
San Jose Sharks 6.26
Calgary Flames 6.51
Vegas Golden Knights 29.00
Arizona Coyotes 31.00
Vancouver Canucks 31.00
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:34 AM   #25
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This looks about right outside of the Oilers nonsense.

The breakdown of said nonsense:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puck Daddy
"The Oilers can win the West this season, mainly because Connor McDavid is on the Sidney Crosby Career Arc and that means he should play for the Stanley Cup in Year 3..."
The Oilers are "Cup contenders" because Sidney Crosby played for the Stanley Cup first in his third season. What the hell does that have to do with a different team playing a decade later?

Quote:
But also because we believe in Cam Talbot in goal, Leon Draisaitl as a No. 2 center...
They believe in Leon Draisaitl as a number-two centre despite the fact that he played virtually every minute of his breakout season on Connor McDavid's wing. Does that make any sense?

Quote:
...and that they can skate better than nearly every team in the West.
Mmmm. I doubt it.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:13 AM   #26
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This Oilers hype train is potentially the greatest thing to happen this off-season. Imagine the glorious meltdown if the Oilers were to fall short of expectations and miss the playoffs...
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:32 AM   #27
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They believe in Leon Draisaitl as a number-two centre despite the fact that he played virtually every minute of his breakout season on Connor McDavid's wing. Does that make any sense?
He didn't though. According to Dobberhockey Draisatil played about 57-60% of his icetime with McDavid.

He also played center on Mcdavid's line from time to time as well. He took more faceoffs than McDavid and it wasn't unusual to see Draisaitl as the man down low in the D-zone.

So he actually played center around half the time he was on the ice last season.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:28 AM   #28
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Even strength, which is where most people gauge line combinations on, Draistaitl spent 79.9% of the time with McDavid last year.
http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/f...es=2016-2017:R
I'm a reading those percentages wrong or are you? It's late so it's entirely possible I'm looking at things wrong.

Faceoffs are an interesting thing, it's good that Leon took that many but it's a poor indicator of what happened after the puck was dropped. Wingers that take the dot usually revert back to wing immediately. I think you'd be hard pressed to convince anyone McDavid was a winger half the season because it wasn't unusual to see Leon played down low.

Your last sentence seems pretty anecdotal. You seem to be really stretching some facts and some anecdotes ("wasn't unusual to see him down low") to say he was a center half the season.
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:56 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
I think the Ducks are on a bit of a slow decline. They have a great young defense group, good not great goaltending, but their best forwards are getting long on the tooth and declining. I think they will be in the mix for the playoffs as always but I don't see them as a true cup contender.
Every year I hope for the Ducks to fall into a heavy decline. Yet there they are each and every year. 5 straight division titles. A WCF appearance. A very good, mobile and young D corps. Good veterans that might be getting older, yet play hard and tough every night. Very good prospect pool and good drafting.

The Ducks are very much a cup contender, until proven otherwise.
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:47 AM   #30
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there's justifiable hype around generational players in Canadian cities.

Most level headed fans would suggest the Oilers don't have the blueline or depth to be a true contender at this point. They have McDavid so they recipe is in place, you can't take that away from them, but the starting point isn't the ending point.

Toronto the same thing ... everyone has Toronto as a playoff team but are they? That defense is pretty suspect.
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:57 AM   #31
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No issue with the Oilers being that high

Best player in the league going forward, this site isn't high on draisatl but most others seem to be

What I don't get is the bust part for some teams

Flames with their defense won't bust unless something like 5 season ending injuries counts as a bust

Same with Washington, they've been the best regular season team for 3 years that won't bust

Shouldnt be included with teams like Toronto or Dallas who could finish anywhere from 12th in the conference to 3rd
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Old 09-06-2017, 07:59 AM   #32
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Also are Chicago and San Jose below the Sabres and devils?

The order makes no sense

And why is every section in Alphabetical order except the contenders one
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:03 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
there's justifiable hype around generational players in Canadian cities.

Most level headed fans would suggest the Oilers don't have the blueline or depth to be a true contender at this point. They have McDavid so they recipe is in place, you can't take that away from them, but the starting point isn't the ending point.

Toronto the same thing ... everyone has Toronto as a playoff team but are they? That defense is pretty suspect.
I dunno. Its young for sure, but some really nice pieces there even if not real deep. They are insanely deep in skill up front, though they do lack the grit that they will need when games get tougher later in the year.

Then there is the X factor...Babcock. He is the best in the business and they were so close last year, I can see him getting them in. The one caveat to that though is some of the other non-playoff teams are getting better as well, particularly the Canes...they will be one to watch IMO. Also the Flyers.
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:47 AM   #34
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Then there is the X factor...Babcock. He is the best in the business
On what metric are we basing this on?
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Old 09-06-2017, 08:59 AM   #35
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On what metric are we basing this on?
I'm old and never fully embraced the metric system. As with all declarations of "the best", its more opinion than anything else.

It's hard to argue that anyone has been better for longer than Babcock though. He has been successful at every level he has coached at. He has won internationally repeatedly. He took the Leafs from one of the worst teams in recent memory year 1 to the playoffs the following year.

I know that a couple other guys are in the conversation, but none are any better...perhaps equal, but none better.
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:22 AM   #36
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Quote:
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Even strength, which is where most people gauge line combinations on, Draistaitl spent 79.9% of the time with McDavid last year.
http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/f...es=2016-2017:R
I'm a reading those percentages wrong or are you? It's late so it's entirely possible I'm looking at things wrong.

Faceoffs are an interesting thing, it's good that Leon took that many but it's a poor indicator of what happened after the puck was dropped. Wingers that take the dot usually revert back to wing immediately. I think you'd be hard pressed to convince anyone McDavid was a winger half the season because it wasn't unusual to see Leon played down low.

Your last sentence seems pretty anecdotal. You seem to be really stretching some facts and some anecdotes ("wasn't unusual to see him down low") to say he was a center half the season.
You are reading the chart right, but for some reason that data is very, very wrong. I did give you Draisaitl's ES icetime with McDavid and it's not close to 80%.

Draisaitl didn't play on McDavid's line until the Dec 1st game in Winnipeg. 25 games into the season. That's 30% of the season before playing a single game together, so just at first glance the numbers are way off.

If you look at the line combinations tab on that page, it gives a full breakdown of icetime:

http://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/f...ations&sent=go

Draisaitl's top 5 line combos actually looks like this:
44.43% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - MAROON,PATRICK - MCDAVID,CONNOR
6.15% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - MCDAVID,CONNOR
5% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - MAROON,PATRICK - PULJUJARVI,JESSE
4.12% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - MAROON,PATRICK - NUGENT-HOPKINS,RYAN
3.55% EV DRAISAITL,LEON - LUCIC,MILAN - SLEPYSHEV,ANTON

Adding most of the %'s up you get roughly 57-60% of icetime with McDavid.
I'm not sure why it's right in one place and wrong in another.

For verification you can go to Natural Stat Trick. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pla...ayerid=8477934

That shows time with/away for every player.
It has Leon playing 1271 minutes at even strength. 748 of those with Mcdavid. That's 59%.

So really I don't think it's a stretch at all to say Draisaitl played center for approximately 50% of his icetime last season. He played 41% of his time away from McDavid as a center, and to say he played the center role on McDaid's line 10% of the time on Mcdavid's line is pretty reasonable.

If you watch McDavid often you will see that he ends up as the winger in the D-zone much more often than a Backlund or a RNH. He didn't do it as much at the NHL level as in Erie, but its still in his game.

For those curious, Draisaitl had 17 points in 24 games before joining McDavid. That's a 58 point pace.

His game by game breakdown is pretty curious. He scored 6 points in his first 4 games, then went on a 7 game scoreless drought, before putting up 11 in his next 13. So outside of his 7 game pointless steak, Draisaitl put up 17 points in the other 17 games.
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:26 AM   #37
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plenty of expectations on the oilers. they best do well. Clearly, it's cup final or bust! then the cap fun starts, haha.
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:32 AM   #38
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So, before and after the Dec 1 game against Wpg:

7G, 10A, 17P, 24 games, .708 PPG, 58 point pace
22G, 38A, 60P, 58 games, 1.034 PPG, 85 point pace

Is there a McDavid effect, he asks?
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:48 AM   #39
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Cue the gnashing of teeth.
Lol. It's some dudes opinion. Not much validation or care to be found here, except for y'all in sweatpantstown.

Pretty confident Edmonton will slump (or even crash and burn) after last season, regardless of how highly the basement bloggers want to hype them.
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:54 AM   #40
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So, before and after the Dec 1 game against Wpg:

7G, 10A, 17P, 24 games, .708 PPG, 58 point pace
22G, 38A, 60P, 58 games, 1.034 PPG, 85 point pace

Is there a McDavid effect, he asks?
Its hard to compare because he wasn't getting top six linemates or 1st unit PP time for that stretch.

58 point pace is pretty good from the third line.

If you include playoffs the paces change to:

70 points without McDavid
83 points with McDavid

I'm not going to argue that Mcdavid has zero effect, but it seems like Draisaitl wasn't doing too bad on his own either.
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