Friedman's 31 thoughts Dec 11

[sureLoss]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...est-bombshell/

Flames related:

4. Geoff Ward could retire undefeated, now 6-0 running the bench. While Calgary gave its interim boss a salary raise for the remainder of the season, they have yet to commit to him for the rest of the year. First, after a tumultuous month, the organization just wanted to breathe and see how the players responded. Second, the Flames did not want to be unfair to him by saying, “Hey, it’s yours” in case circumstances changed at a later date. I believe the metaphor being used is, “They’re dating, but not engaged.” Results speak, however, and, right now, Ward’s are excellent. He’s come a long way since assisting Don McKee at the University of Waterloo in 1989.

5. I’m not sure anyone knew what to expect when Peters was told in Buffalo that he could not be with the team. But everyone noticed an immediate difference, a more relaxed vibe. Winning creates the most happiness. Second is your players getting their cookies. Sean Monahan, who looked lost, has points in all six of those games, and goals in each of the past four. Johnny Gaudreau, looking so much more engaged, has four points. Dillon Dube, Milan Lucic, Zac Rinaldo and Derek Ryan had 16 points before Ward’s ascension and 19 since. A little belief goes a long way.

Other interesting tidbits:

There is reason to believe the NHLPA will use the full escalator next year to get to a projected $84-$85 million salary cap
This is because so many players negotiated low salary year due to the potential lockout and therefore escrow will not be as high


Islanders are looking for a scorer

Toronto does not want to trade Kapanen

Buffalo has considered Galchenyuk

Kings and Kovalchuk will try to work out a mutual contract termination after the Dec 15 signing bonus is paid out.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...est-bombshell/


There is reason to believe the NHLPA will use the full escalator next year to get to a projected $84-$85 million salary cap
This is because so many players negotiated low salary year due to the potential lockout and therefore escrow will not be as high

Will be a good year to sign a big first year salary contract for FAs.

Does anyone know what the actual HRR number ends up being each year? Curious how far out of whack the cap is with reality...

[getbak]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Will be a good year to sign a big first year salary contract for FAs.

Does anyone know what the actual HRR number ends up being each year? Curious how far out of whack the cap is with reality...

You can do the math using the next season's cap and the amount of escalator that was used to determine what the previous season's HRR was (generally speaking, there are some things taken off the HRR calculation to pay for player benefits that don't go into the cap calculation). Many people are under the mistaken impression that the escalator increases the cap independently of HRR, but that's not true. The escalator is only used on the previous season's actual year-end HRR (or the best estimate available in mid-June) to try to account for inflation for the following season.


I've said this many times before, but the escrow issue isn't because the cap is out of whack with HRR. The escrow issue is because the whole process for calculating the cap uses bad assumptions about how teams will choose to use the cap.

The cap is calculated using the assumption that the average team payroll will be around the midpoint of the cap and floor. The reality is that every season virtually every team starts the season above the midpoint, and it only goes up from there as players get injured and need to be replaced. More teams start the season above the cap (with LTIR) than below the midpoint.


Right now, for example, the midpoint of the salary range is $70.85 million. That's supposed to be the average team payroll. If you look at Cap Friendly, the lowest team payroll right now is Columbus at $74.15 million. It's hard to have an average of $70.85 million when not a single team is below that number. Also, right now, 11 teams are currently exceeding the cap and using LTIR to be compliant.

Escrow is the mechanism used to bring those two numbers into alignment.

Plus, remember that they basically didn't use the escalator at all for this season's cap. Because of this, assuming HRR grows at its usual rate (which usually exceeds 5%), the cap is actually too low -- but that's by design because the assumptions used in the cap calculations are so out of whack.