[CP Story] Makings Sense of the Lucic Trade

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Hate this ####ing #### of a ####ing trade. Dealing with the Oil without a clear ####ing win is just pouring Oil on the Flames.. Lol. Would like to be glass half full but we have spent all of this time watching Milan be so lousy in Edmonton and laughing about it, Stats or not. ####ing #### of a trade.

*Pouring oil on Flames results in stronger burning Flames

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by neo45

I think Lucic will be an improvement on Neal

But I also think a simple Neal buyout was a better course of action and the cap savings could have been better spent than bringing in Lucic. Optics probably took this option off the table unfortunately.


The Oilers effectively spending 6.5mil on who I consider to be the worst player in the NHL (can’t do anything effectively) is the silver lining here for me.

Until they buy out Neal next year and are out of cap trouble thanks to the Flames

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Until they buy out Neal next year and are out of cap trouble thanks to the Flames

The Oilers have 13 free agents at the end of this season. Only 4 are RFA. They’ll get themselves back into salary cap trouble regardless of how the handle Neal.

[Mike F]

People need to be prepared for this to be a good trade for both teams, and accept that Neal bouncing back in Edmonton won't affect the trade from the Flames perspective, as he wasn't going to improve in Calgary playing on the 3rd line with a ****ty attitude.

Lucic should make the Flames bottom 6 marginally better that Neal, adding an extra dimension to the Flames (in doing so, saving Hamonic from having to drop the gloves or the team playing a guy like Peluso), and is slightly cheaper. So that's a technical win regardless of whether Neal scores 20 or 30 goals.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Until they buy out Neal next year and are out of cap trouble thanks to the Flames

Carrying a dead cap-hit of $1,916,667 for the next 6 seasons doesn't exactly help their cap out, plus the $750K they're carrying for the duration of Lucic's contract. In total, if they were to buy-out Neal after this season, they'd be carrying a $2,666,667 cap-hit because of this trade. Meanwhile, we'll still have an effective 3rd line NHL'er.

Seems good to me!

[DoubleK]

I've come to terms with the trade. The Flames were going to have a player on a bad contract in any event, either Neal or Lucic.

I do wish that they had given Neal one more year to get his poop in a group, it feels like they have sold low.

Lucic is a better fit in the bottom six, and partially makes up for the loss of Hathaway.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Until they buy out Neal next year and are out of cap trouble thanks to the Flames

Six years of dead space at 1.9M isn't exactly a gift.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

*Pouring oil on Flames results in stronger burning Flames

Yeah I know, I used it in the vein of burning out of control.. In a bad way.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Excellent article, good deductions. I agree. Neal had to go. They weren’t buying him out. Lucic does add toughness we need. Lucic is a better fit on the bottom two lines.

I tried making lines earlier this summer and I legitimately couldn’t fit Neal in. Mangiapane or Dube deserve Neal's ice time.

[bax]

Great job, Bingo- always appreciate your analysis and your even keel perspective.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Excellent article, good deductions. I agree. Neal had to go. They weren’t buying him out. Lucic does add toughness we need. Lucic is a better fit on the bottom two lines.

I tried making lines earlier this summer and I legitimately couldn’t fit Neal in. Mangiapane or Dube deserve Neal's ice time.

This is the thing for me. Every time I look at the lineup, I get to Neal, and can't find a place for him. I don't dislike him. I wasn't hating his presence on the team or anything. I just couldn't figure out where he fit.

Because he didn't.

Not thrilled to be adding Lucic. Would have liked to have seen more return from moving Neal. But the bottom line is that moving Neal costs this lineup nothing.

And if he was a dressing room problem, then moving him is a positive.

[Toonage]

Personally, I get the sense that Treliving was told what kind of deal he could make, if it was possible. He had to shed the contract and save some money in doing so. No going and getting Turris for $6M with an additional year. Maybe he was told to make this specific deal. But I wouldn't be chocked if this trade was made for him, so to speak.

[BrennyBaller]

The Flames are not a cash spending team. They have an internal rule that they can't exceed cash over cap. The cap is to be the cash budget.

In this trade, the flames save around $10M in cash that they can use to front load the Tkachuk contract if needed.

Someone in the Flames org said that Tre & Co. were absolutely ecstatic about this trade for the above reasons, but also called it the B.O.S trade - Bag of $h!t for Bag of $h!t

[Iggy599]

The Flames are better off with Lucic over Neal with how this team is built there is no question about that. The problem I have is it is basically 1 for 1 which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. We took on a guy who was widely considered untradable and did not get anything to sweeten the pot. If it was a 3rd outright I still think that may have not been enough. Overall I have trust in Tre I hope it works out.

[The Boy Wonder]

Remember when Neal was benched in a do or die game in the playoff because he just couldn't keep up, couldn't impact the game positively and was well below replacement level and had his give a #### meter set to zero?

Good riddance.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by BrennyBaller

The Flames are not a cash spending team. They have an internal rule that they can't exceed cash over cap. The cap is to be the cash budget.

In this trade, the flames save around $10M in cash that they can use to front load the Tkachuk contract if needed.

Someone in the Flames org said that Tre & Co. were absolutely ecstatic about this trade for the above reasons, but also called it the B.O.S trade - Bag of $h!t for Bag of $h!t

I think this is a bigger factor in the trade than fans realize/consider.

Half a million a year in cap savings is great, and will help a lot. But also having a suitcase full of cash in the trunk, may prove extremely valuable in the Tkachuk negotiations.

What really surprises me about this deal, is that Katz agreed to it. He is the big loser in this trade - and by a wide margin. And he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that would agree to that. Makes me wonder if he knew what this deal actually cost him.

[Toonage]

^ Maybe this is a good example that Holland really does have autonomy

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Iggy599

The Flames are better off with Lucic over Neal with how this team is built there is no question about that. The problem I have is it is basically 1 for 1 which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. We took on a guy who was widely considered untradable and did not get anything to sweeten the pot. If it was a 3rd outright I still think that may have not been enough. Overall I have trust in Tre I hope it works out.

I think by July 19th Treliving was realizing that Neal was untradable too.

[united]

As a comparison, here is what Natural Stat Trick has for numbers using standard and routine adjustments (score and venue) compared to the numbers in the table within the article from Bingo's database:

Neal
CF% 50.6 -> 50.9
SF% 47.8 -> 48.2
xGF% 48.5 -> 48.8
HDCF% 48.1 -> 48.5

Lucic
CF% 50.7 -> 50.4
SF% 48.5 -> 48.2
xGF% 49.3 -> 48.9
HDCF% 49.2 -> 48.8

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Well written and balanced article, thanks.

One thing tat can't be overstated: "Brad Treliving knows what he's doing". And I would add: "and he does it as thoroughly and methodically as anyone".

The numbers have been crunched, and the scenarios have been considered. And he came to the conclusion that this move improved his team. I agree.

I think, somewhat ironically perhaps, that, as a trade of bad contract for bad contract, this trade will actually help both teams.

He sold low on Neal (likely out of necessity), but he also bought low on Lucic. Should add even more spice to the BOA!

So true, IMO, and why I don't go along with the posters who believe this was a desperation move by Treliving. I don't think he does anything in desperation. Evaluating all of his options (which he knows more about than any poster here) he'll make the best move that is open to him. While posters can disagree with whether it was a good move or not, I find it difficult to go along with them when they say there were better options out there and that he made the decision out of desperation.