Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Another ridiculously priced house went up for sale in my hood yesterday. It was purchased 2 or 3 years ago, very minor work was done on the house and it was listed for about 40% more than the previous sale. If anyone pays close to $1M for this house I will be shocked.

Well based on our recent home search and experiences, prepare to be shocked. Maybe things will tail off a bit with yet another rate hike of late but I dont know what to think anymore.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Another ridiculously priced house went up for sale in my hood yesterday. It was purchased 2 or 3 years ago, very minor work was done on the house and it was listed for about 40% more than the previous sale. If anyone pays close to $1M for this house I will be shocked.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Slava

I’m not sure there’s a recession imminent. Honestly, we’ve heard about the imminent recession for about 18 months now. At what point is that call just wrong? Eventually, we’ll have another recession, but it’s hard to say when that happens. Things could slow, not technically recede, and then we recover?

It’s an incredibly interesting time though. The consumer is strong, spending money and job losses are low along with unemployment. On the other hand, rates are rising, lending is slowing and there are deflationary factors as well.

The Euro zone is now officially in recession. We might just be lagging by six months.

One factor in this resilient economy that I think gets overlooked is the unprecendently large savings that households built up during the pandemic. They’ve been gradually drawn down over the last 18 months (by the home reno boom, ‘revenge travel’, etc), fuelling consumer spending. But we still have a ways to go before savings decline to pre-Covid levels.

I expect when that happens, along with mortgages rolling over at higher rates, we’ll see a real constriction of the economy and a recession.

[username]

Do you have any data to back up these claims?


those that are in the market are highly levered and are very susceptible to interest rate hikes and job loses; poop hits the fan; investors will flee

I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you have any data at all that backs up these claims?


I work for technology real estate company in the US and there's no data indicating there is any problem with affordability. Not wanting to move and taking on a higher mortgage rate is the number one issue facing the real estate market.


Also, you seem to be leaving out the fact that salaries "generally" go up with inflation, so that should offset the increase in payments when they do come in 4 years, if rates are even still high at that point.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by username

Do you have any data to back up these claims?


those that are in the market are highly levered and are very susceptible to interest rate hikes and job loses; poop hits the fan; investors will flee

I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you have any data at all that backs up these claims?


I work for technology real estate company in the US and there's no data indicating there is any problem with affordability. Not wanting to move and taking on a higher mortgage rate is the number one issue facing the real estate market.


Also, you seem to be leaving out the fact that salaries "generally" go up with inflation, so that should offset the increase in payments when they do come in 4 years, if rates are even still high at that point.

Yes the data is every recession/depression this comes before it.

Most mortgages are due to go up by 40% by 2026.

My prediction is this will get ugly by the the fall.

[nik-]

Oh? the thing a ton of people have predicted is your prediction?

[Matata]

For those of us due for a ####-kicking in 2026, should we be prioritizing paying down our mortgages or more traditional investments? I've gotten some mixed advice on this.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Matata

For those of us due for a ####-kicking in 2026, should we be prioritizing paying down our mortgages or more traditional investments? I've gotten some mixed advice on this.

Mortgage vs Investments isn't only a math decision. There's value in feeling more comfortable with your principle and payment even if you could technically beat the percentage in the market. Personally, I'd go mortgage. It's a slam dunk baked in value well above 4%, and it lowers your cash flow requirements.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Matata

For those of us due for a ####-kicking in 2026, should we be prioritizing paying down our mortgages or more traditional investments? I've gotten some mixed advice on this.

Depends on whether your mortgage rate is higher than the rate of return on your investments and what you can afford to pay as a mortgage to keep your investments afloat. Ideally, if you are forced to pay down the mortgage, you'd just make a balloon payment at the time of renewal, as you'd maximize the return on your investments up to that point.

You'll also want to look at things like penalties. For example, you may be able to increase mortgage payments by X amount plus make a balloon payment of X amount, without a penalty, but if you leave it all to a massive balloon payment, you might be looking at a large penalty.

[GGG]

Part of the problem with the above strategy is variance of investments. On average your current investments will out perform your current rates but if you have a decline in investments at time of renewal then your strategy fails so there is certainly a risk management component. That’s offset by a recession leading to lower rates but in a stagflation scenario you could get both recession and high interest.

But right now you can also get GICs that outperform pandemic mortgages so in that scenario you can have a guaranteed return return that outperforms your mortgage.

Also make sure you consider taxes if you don’t have room in your TFSA to do this.

[Table 5]

One thing to always keep in mind is the downside risk of investing vs paying down the mortgage. Yes, you may get a much better return with investing…but you may also lose it too. Personally, I’m pretty conservative when it comes to money that’s allocated for the mortgage.

Having said that, our mortgage is 2.1% for another 2.5 years. You can get a GIC or T-bill paying around 4-5% right now, virtually risk free, so for us it doesn’t really make sense to put that money to pay down the mortgage quicker until that scenario changes. Once the mortgage renews at what I’m assuming to be a much higher rate, we’ll put the focus on aggressively paying down the mortgage. Until then, we're plowing any extra money into those guaranteed rates.

[stampsx2]

What’s everyone’s take on where condo prices are going in the next ten years? The frustrating part is that they have been flat for the last decade while single family homes keep increasing. I fear that the gap between condos and single family homes will just keep getting bigger.

Personally i blame the city for building up and mandating stopping sprawl ten years ago. I think we are seeing the effects now with a single family home supply shortage.

[Regorium]

I think the bigger reason is that living in inner city is basically considered a penalty these days post-covid. The demand for condos just isn't there.

However, the other thing that I'm seeing is that the rental market is going sky high and some friends that were previously content just renting a condo are now looking into buying those same condos as the mortgage is cheaper than rapidly rising rents. I'm not sure how big of a market this demographic is but it does exist and will push the price a bit higher.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

What’s everyone’s take on where condo prices are going in the next ten years? The frustrating part is that they have been flat for the last decade while single family homes keep increasing. I fear that the gap between condos and single family homes will just keep getting bigger.

Personally i blame the city for building up and mandating stopping sprawl ten years ago. I think we are seeing the effects now with a single family home supply shortage.

I see them going up. As people get pushed out of detached housing they look for alternatives, and there's a trickle down effect. The days of working class people being able to afford detached homes is long over in Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, the greater Toronto area, etc... And Calgary is likely part of what next wave, if it isn't happened already.

Plus we're seeing demographic and lifestyle changes. People without kids don't need houses. If I didn't have kids I'd probably opt for a modern condo, with everything taken care of vs living in a house that requires maintenance, yard work, etc...

An issue with Calgary's condo scene specifically is that there isn't that much benefit to living right in the core in Calgary, as the social scene there is weak. Calgary also has a lot more land that they could still freely develop towers on, so that's going to affect supply issues.

[Winsor_Pilates]

I agree with Blankall; condos will get pulled up by houses going up in price.

Calgary condos have been flat for so long that it's a matter of time before there's a tipping point and that changes.
My only question is whether that is now or still a few years away; but it's coming.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

What’s everyone’s take on where condo prices are going in the next ten years? The frustrating part is that they have been flat for the last decade while single family homes keep increasing. I fear that the gap between condos and single family homes will just keep getting bigger.

Personally i blame the city for building up and mandating stopping sprawl ten years ago. I think we are seeing the effects now with a single family home supply shortage.

The City has approved and has over ten years worth of serviced land supply in new greenfield communities. A large proportion of that is single detached. There are currently more new communities building out at the same time than any time since the 90s. This is not a City-induced supply constraint.

The constraint is mostly the combination of material and labour shortages combined with record growth.

Multi family had larger vacancy as a result of outmigration of younger population during the downtimes. But that is catching up now and you will start to see price escalation. It has certainly happened on the rental side, for purchase is not far behind.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by blankall

Plus we're seeing demographic and lifestyle changes. People without kids don't need houses. If I didn't have kids I'd probably opt for a modern condo, with everything taken care of vs living in a house that requires maintenance, yard work, etc...

This doesn't seem to be the reality. More often than not, it seems you get two aging people sitting on a 2000 sq. ft. house with a bunch of unused bedrooms spending their retirement putzing in the yard.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by blankall

Plus we're seeing demographic and lifestyle changes. People without kids don't need houses. If I didn't have kids I'd probably opt for a modern condo, with everything taken care of vs living in a house that requires maintenance, yard work, etc...

I don't have kids and live alone in a Villa style house. I also belong to a HOA where I pay a monthly fee that gets my driveway and sidewalk shoveled in the winter with the grass cut and underground sprinkler system maintained in the summer. Prices in my area have skyrocketed over the past 3 years as seniors from BC and Ontario come here, with cash in their hands to purchase houses like mine. They want a maintenance free lifestyle.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

This doesn't seem to be the reality. More often than not, it seems you get two aging people sitting on a 2000 sq. ft. house with a bunch of unused bedrooms spending their retirement putzing in the yard.

Why wouldn’t they if they spent their life paying for it? They are proud of the home and have space for company and whoever to come over they want. No one’s jealousy of their living arrangement should effect their retirement.

Being forced to live in a condo is worse than death for some.

The primary reason condo prices have remained flat is the sheer number of them and condo fees itself.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Why wouldn’t they if they spent their life paying for it? Your jealousy shouldn’t effect their living arrangement.

He's just stating a reality. I see no jealousy in his post.