Absolutely not. At least with most other manufacturers, we get the jobs and economic benefit. Having China dump their cheaply produced EV's that don't have to follow things like reasonable wages and environmental standards would just mean ceding manufacturing capacity to them, as we have in so many other ways.
The gigapress doesn't form the whole car, it forms the front and back sub assembly frames. It absolutely does save money, time and human labour. But it's not the full car in one piece.
The problem with cost reduction is at some point, you've removed all the reasons people might pick your vehicle in a competitive environment. Without luxury features, like, uhm, grab handles, you start to lose customers.
From my viewpoint it looks more like our tax dollars are being spent by the Federal government to give billions in incentives to Magna to build a battery factory or to Volkswagon to open a line that employs 3000 employees to benefit some workers in Ontario. And then when they don't get the same incentive package, they hold us hostage. They gave VW $13 billion for 3000 jobs. Does that make sense? Now Magna wants the same money or they will pull their plant.
I want the maximum number of consumer choices for everyone and that includes affordable Chinese EVs, not government goodwill gestures to prop up an industry that wouldn't make sense minus the incentives and doesn't provide a benefit to all Canadians and not just a handle of Ontario workers for a PR stunt when they don't extend the same hand to workers in the west.
Grab handles, more instruments, buttons dials, whatever - I don't want them even. I've grown accustomed to the complete simplicity of nothing in the car but the steering wheel and a screen. Other cars look messy to me now and I can't go back. The interior materials are junk I'll give you that - especially the cheap pp and pvc plastics everywhere.
I don't know if I really agree with the subsidies either, but importing cheap Chinese stuff, because it is cheap is not really a direction we should head in, or soon that will be our only choice.
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From what I've seen the biggest losers are going to be ICE manufacturers in Japan, US, and Europe who cannot transition properly.
Toyota has famously tried to sit on the fence regarding EVs and have fumbled many times. Honda is not developing their own EV drivetrains and is going to rely on GM. BMW/Mercedes are deeply entrenched in ICE engineering and there are many signs they are dinosaurs in adapting.
China is the biggest threat to all these automakers as they have a huge domestic market to build and test out technologies (and massive, unified government support) and then they can sell to the rest of the world if approvals and protectionist tariffs don't kill them somehow. I would love to have a Chinese EV choice here in Canada (Norway has some).
For Tesla, I think their competitive advantage (aside from the stock market hype) and how the Model Y is the best selling vehicle in the world right now is that they are trying to focus on those cost cutting manufacturing steps to further increase their margins and allow for price reductions when the real competition does show up.
They are anti-union and actively trying to automate their manufacturing into simple steps like the gigapress which stamps the whole car in one piece rather than having humans or robots assemble and weld parts together.
I agree with all of this. It sounds fine to say (as EE said) that the big traditional automakers can just catch up when the penetration gets to 50% ignores just how that is literally impossible.
First, it takes minimum 5 years for the big automakers to get a new electric vehicle to a decent production number. In 2017 there were 1M total electric vehicles sold. By 2022 (5 years later,) there were 10 million sold. That doesn't look to be slowing down. If they're 5 years behind, who's buying their cars? Even though they're dipping their toes in now, the same trajectory has 50 million (probably well north of 50%) in another 5 years, and they won't be able to keep up with demand.
Second, Established ICE makers have existing commitments to hundreds of thousands of employees, parts suppliers, and property that won't be compatible with building electric vehicles. They can't simply just end those commitments, so it's naturally going to take longer. Look at what's happening to VW in Germany (https://electrek.co/2021/11/04/vw-ce...electric-fast/). It's difficult for a complex large company to just pivot. You're not replacing an engine, the entire production is completely different. Design, parts, manufacturing, sales, etc are all completely different. They need a longer lead timer and 5 years simply isn't enough.
Lastly, and this is the biggest one, there won't be enough batteries for everyone. Telsa brought the entire supply chain under their roof, though they still needed to sign additional battery supply agreements. Ford and GM have signed some supply agreements, but only really Ford has any real supply in place and still not enough. Those who sign last will pay a lot more for the same batteries. Currently China owns or controls 80-90% of the entire supply chain for the batteries, though despite being very late both North America and Europe are trying to fix this. This will really affect operating margins and the difference in costs will not be a difference in quality but in logistics. It takes 2-4 years to build new mineral refining capacity, but it takes 8-10 years to build new mines. It's going to be tough to be the last one to the trough
Last edited by Street Pharmacist; 05-30-2023 at 03:54 PM.
I agree with all of this. It sounds fine to say (as EE said) that the big traditional automakers can just catch up when the penetration gets to 50% ignores just how that is literally impossible.
First, it takes minimum 5 years for the big automakers to get a new electric vehicle to a decent production number. In 2017 there were 1M total electric vehicles sold. By 2022 (5 years later,) there were 10 million sold. That doesn't look to be slowing down. If the're 5 years behind, who's buying their cars? Even though they're dipping toes in now, the same trajectory has 50 million (probably well north of 50%) in another 5 years, and they won't be able to keep up with demand.
Second, Established ICE makers have existing commitments to hundreds of thousands of employees, parts supopliers, and property that won't be compatible with buildingelectric vehicles. They can'tr simply just end those commitments, so it's naturally going to take longer. Look at what's happening to VW in Germany (https://electrek.co/2021/11/04/vw-ce...electric-fast/). It's difficult for a complex large company to just pivot. You're not replacing an engine, the entire production is completely different. Design, parts, manufacturing, sales, etc are all completely different. They need a longer lead timer and 5 years simply isn't enough.
Lastly, and this is the biggest one, there won't be enough batteries for everyone. Telsa brought the entire supply chain under their roof, though they still needed to sign additional battery supply agreements. Ford and GM have signed some supply agreements, but only really Ford has any real suppply in place and still not enough.Those who sign last will pay a lot more for the same batteries. Currently China owns or controls 80-90% of the entire supply chain for the batteries, though despite being very late both North America and Europe are trying to fix this. This will really affect operating margins and the difference in costs will not be a difference in quality but in logistics. It takes 2-4 years to build new mineral refining capacity, but it takes 8-10 years to build new mines. It's going to be tough to be the last one to trough
One other thing to note is that Tesla has announced they are moving to reduce rare earth magnets in their drive chain to zero or near zero. That is another effort to remove reliance on Chinese supply chain as the biggest producer of REM in the world out of their equation. China controls the batteries needed to power the cars and the rare earth magnets needed for the motors of all EVs on the road today. Other manufacturers need to figure this out for themselves or they will just turn into resellers of Chinese technology.
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One other thing to note is that Tesla has announced they are moving to reduce rare earth magnets in their drive chain to zero or near zero. That is another effort to remove reliance on Chinese supply chain as the biggest producer of REM in the world out of their equation. China controls the batteries needed to power the cars and the rare earth magnets needed for the motors of all EVs on the road today. Other manufacturers need to figure this out for themselves or they will just turn into resellers of Chinese technology.
You mean like BMW? They already offer motors without rare earth magnets. This is why it's so difficult to have these discussions as too many people seem to think Tesla is the only manufacturer that can innovate when it comes to EV technology.
You mean like BMW? They already offer motors without rare earth magnets. This is why it's so difficult to have these discussions as too many people seem to think Tesla is the only manufacturer that can innovate when it comes to EV technology.
I'll admit I have a personal bias/gut feeling against BMW/Mercedes being able to innovate and pivot away from ICE from watching far too many video essays and even DW reports about German branding and leadership fails and I was not aware of this engine.
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I'll admit I have a personal bias/gut feeling against BMW/Mercedes being able to innovate and pivot away from ICE from watching far too many video essays and even DW reports about German branding and leadership fails and I was not aware of this engine.
Really?
You look at the Model X, compare it to the BMW iX or the Mercedes EQS SUV AINEC. Model S vs i7 or EQS Sedan???
Cool tech, features, comfort, quality and driving capability all better on the German side. The only 2 things Tesla has going for it is acceleration and the charging network.
For around the same price, I go BMW or MB every single day.
You look at the Model X, compare it to the BMW iX or the Mercedes EQS SUV AINEC. Model S vs i7 or EQS Sedan???
Cool tech, features, comfort, quality and driving capability all better on the German side. The only 2 things Tesla has going for it is acceleration and the charging network.
For around the same price, I go BMW or MB every single day.
I was a Mercedes & BMW driver for 15 years up until last October. I didn't realize how much I disliked the German cars until I switched. Too much maintenance. Expensive parts and service. Overly complicated interiors. The worst user interfaces ever designed. I'll admit they've left a bad taste in my mouth and I have bias. Until other manufacturers come out with a clean/spartan interior and the pleasures I'd had with the constant feature upgrades from simple software updates that I've had over the last few months. I'm very happy not driving a car from a legacy manufacturer for awhile.
We couldn't be more opposite. I want to go back to the early 2000s with buttons everywhere. A dedicated button for every damn thing the car can do, please. I can remember where it is, not have to look at it, feel it, press it.
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Agreed with Mr. Bumface. I can memorize where buttons are so nary a glance away from the road is needed to do basic things like change the HVAC or control the audio system, turn on my heated seats, etc.
Moving away from that and putting everything in a dynamic, touch-sensitive interface is *the* worst interface possible when you are in a moving hunk of aluminum and/or steel and trying to pay attention to where you're piloting the thing and just want to change the temperature for the climate control.
Agreed with Mr. Bumface. I can memorize where buttons are so nary a glance away from the road is needed to do basic things like change the HVAC or control the audio system, turn on my heated seats, etc.
Moving away from that and putting everything in a dynamic, touch-sensitive interface is *the* worst interface possible when you are in a moving hunk of aluminum and/or steel and trying to pay attention to where you're piloting the thing and just want to change the temperature for the climate control.
Ya, but a Tesla drives itself so you can look away from the road as long as you need to...
We couldn't be more opposite. I want to go back to the early 2000s with buttons everywhere. A dedicated button for every damn thing the car can do, please. I can remember where it is, not have to look at it, feel it, press it.
Actually the 80's had some crazy interiors full of buttons and displays. Google Renault R25 interior if you want to see a funky cool interior with a lot of buttons. Alfa Romeo 164 is one of my favorites that was ahead of its time.
In regards to Tesla interiors for the most part I don't have a problem with it because I'm not a tweaker when it comes to climate control as I set the temperature and forget it. Touching the screen while driving is pretty minimal for me outside of changing music which works fairly well when using an app like apple music. Not a fan of the auto wiper controls being on the touch screen. If the interior had a HUD I would have no complaints really. Still I really like the interior of my wife's GV70 as it not only looks really nice but it's much better for her because she's always changing the temperature, changing stations, music sources, etc and they use a scroll wheel like BMW which is one of my all time favorite interior interfaces as with my BMW's my right hand would take care of changing menus etc without me having to take my eyes off the road to touch a screen or even a button. It's a shame that BMW is removing the wheel from some of their newer interiors as it's just so useful.
The more I pay for a car the more I want it to look like the cockpit of a fighter jet.
Could be age though, kinda like how I'm conditioned to equate heft with quality.
I grew up wanting to have all the buttons and lights of KITT from Knight Rider or the Back to the Future Delorean. Now I think I've converted to simple and clean as my personal preference after having it for a few months - I can't go back.
I totally get the benefits of tactile controls but 90% of the functions I never use when driving and everything else I can control with voice command or the steering mounted tactile scroll wheels (they just added new functions from opening the glove box to scrolling the temperature to changing the speed of the vehicle). You can re-map it to your own preference.
I will say one annoying thing about Tesla, having only one service center, if you are unable to take mobile service at your home for any reason, they don't have any rentals for you. They just give you Uber vouchers and you still need to pay the tip out of your own pocket. I just took one this morning and I immediately noticed how busy and cluttered the instruments were for the Highlander that was my uber. I think I can't go back. It's kind of like how I just converted to a M1 Macbook from a behemoth and cluttered build custom gaming PC. It's just clean and simple despite me never imagining that was my actual preference for many years. If I really need to hunt for a setting in the menus, I'll just turn on autopilot and let the car drive itself for awhile.
Having the monolithic single screen interface reminds me of Steve Job's presentation of the original iPhone when he showed it's competitors like the Blackberries of the day with tons of buttons all over the face of the phone versus a single clean surface that can display anything you want.
Last edited by Hack&Lube; 06-01-2023 at 09:30 AM.
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I grew up wanting to have all the buttons and lights of KITT from Knight Rider or the Back to the Future Delorean. Now I think I've converted to simple and clean as my personal preference after having it for a few months - I can't go back.
I totally get the benefits of tactile controls but 90% of the functions I never use when driving and everything else I can control with voice command or the steering mounted scroll wheels (they just added new functions from opening the glove box to scrolling the temperature to changing the speed of the vehicle).
I will say one annoying thing about Tesla, having only one service center, if you are unable to take mobile service at your home for any reason, they don't have any rentals for you. They just give you Uber vouchers and you still need to pay the tip out of your own pocket. I just took one this morning and I immediately noticed how busy and cluttered the instruments were for the Highlander that was my uber. I think I can't go back. It's kind of like how I just converted to a M1 Macbook from a behemoth and cluttered build custom gaming PC. It's just clean and simple despite me never imagining that was my actual preference for many years.
Having the monolithic single screen interface reminds me of Steve Job's presentation of the original iPhone when he showed it's competitors like the Blackberries of the day with tons of buttons all over the face of the phone versus a single clean surface that can display anything you want.
It's the first time, I've never had any mechanical issues with the car but my GPS is acting funny because I'm always parking underground for work and deep underground at home for most of the hours of the day so when I emerge to the sky, sometimes it doesn't resync with the satellites for a long time and the navigation will think I'm in the wrong place or 100 meters offset and constantly tell me to u-turn or re-route because I'm in the oncoming traffic road or driving in the river or inside a building
They just said to bring it in and they'll have a look.
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Right now I'm monitoring the service techs as they are working on my car from the mobile app. I can see all the cameras and and I can also see they are driving my car around blackfoot trail to test the nav lol
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