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Old 05-28-2021, 07:04 PM   #61
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The Calm before the Storm?
The calm before The Process.
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Old 05-28-2021, 08:14 PM   #62
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I think it has been poor management of draft capital in an effort to open the contending window based on a (proven to be wrong) assumption that the core players had another step to take.

But you think BT should be fired and I don't. We aren't going to change each other's minds.

My post was specific to the draft record.

Yes, agreed, we won’t change each other’s minds. And a good 24% of people surveyed agree with you that he should not be fired.

I agree that it has been poor management of draft capital. Which in the big picture negates any ‘per capita’ draft success ratio or late round successes (which I think most teams have)

And my view on Tre overall (should be / won’t be) is that these things do not exist in isolation. It has been poor management on several fronts.

Thing is I don’t even take as much issue with that assumption (don’t agree that it’s ‘proven to be wrong’ as it can’t be evaluated in isolation) as I do his response to it (apparently failing to identify coaching as a priority, plus I would have to give him overall failing grade in evaluating his roster assets, strengths, weaknesses and needs, and making appropriate moves)

Even if the draft record per capita is okay, it’s not stellar and there are shortfalls in too many other areas for it to matter.

Other than … well, it could be worse. I guess

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Old 05-28-2021, 09:24 PM   #63
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Flames have better amateur scouting than pro scouting. GM likes to trade picks for established players. Seems about right.
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Old 05-28-2021, 09:28 PM   #64
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This doesn't really account for the 'misses' - may look at that later.

Going back to 2000; within each group below is chronological order:


Spoiler!


There are probably ~15 drafts in this span we can confidently gauge (beyond 2015 there are still wildcards):

6 top third of the roster players. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that is bottom 3 (or worse) in the league.

6-12 solid role players/backup goalies/decent players who went un-signed...interestingly no D aside from maybe Kulak.

5-8 guys who had brief/limited, but notable time in the league.


So ya, that's just pretty bad. There's room for hope from the 2015-17 and more recent groups, but I wonder if we're just conditioned to have insanely low expectations for developing homegrown talent?

If I asked a trivia question like who are the best 3 defencemen drafted by the Flames in the 15 years after Y2K (or even back to 1996), I don't know that I would have expected a toss-up between Kulak/Pardy/Kurtis Foster for the 3rd slot.
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Old 05-28-2021, 09:38 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Yes, agreed, we won’t change each other’s minds. And a good 24% of people surveyed agree with you that he should not be fired.

I agree that it has been poor management of draft capital. Which in the big picture negates any ‘per capita’ draft success ratio or late round successes (which I think most teams have)

And my view on Tre overall (should be / won’t be) is that these things do not exist in isolation. It has been poor management on several fronts.

Thing is I don’t even take as much issue with that assumption (don’t agree that it’s ‘proven to be wrong’ as it can’t be evaluated in isolation) as I do his response to it (apparently failing to identify coaching as a priority, plus I would have to give him overall failing grade in evaluating his roster assets, strengths, weaknesses and needs, and making appropriate moves)

Even if the draft record per capita is okay, it’s not stellar and there are shortfalls in too many other areas for it to matter.

Other than … well, it could be worse. I guess
Fair points well made, but in the Flames case on-ice execution has been extremely uneven, and it is hard to manage for that.

On the other hand, if you want to blame bad coaching for that, then maybe there is a good case for a firing.
Could justify either outcome IMO.
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Old 05-29-2021, 01:37 AM   #66
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The Calm before the Storm?
The calm before the same old norm
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Old 05-29-2021, 03:00 AM   #67
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The calm before the same old norm
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Old 05-29-2021, 05:40 AM   #68
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The Flames amateur drafting has been decent, especially when you consider where they typically pick, as well as all the picks Treliving has dealt away over the years.

My big complaint is they've failed miserably at drafting goalies, but all franchises seem to have that issue. Finding a good goalie prospect is more luck than anything else.
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Old 05-29-2021, 07:19 AM   #69
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The Flames amateur drafting has been decent, especially when you consider where they typically pick, as well as all the picks Treliving has dealt away over the years.

My big complaint is they've failed miserably at drafting goalies, but all franchises seem to have that issue. Finding a good goalie prospect is more luck than anything else.
Parsons, and even Gilles, were good picks. An organization can’t be faulted for injuries or personal life issues that an individual may go through.

I think most are optimistic on Wolf, but a lot can happen between now and if/when he plays.

Treliving too a lot of flak for not addressing goaltending over the years. He tried to plug that hole through free agency and trades, but he also tried through drafting and development.
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Old 05-29-2021, 07:26 AM   #70
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The only thing that has really changed in Flames drafting, and drafting in general, is the hype surrounding it. The amount of information on these players has ballooned and created a cottage hype industry about a process and players that were hardly thought of. Now we have multiple publications repeating much of the same information and building these kids up to be something they will never be. Because we know so much about these kids, and have tracked them from before they were drafted, an attachment develops and they become something more than they are. In the past a player like Matthew Phillips would have been a blip on the radar, now he's hyped to be a great prospect. I don't see anything in the Flames' system that gives me any confidence that anything in their drafting has lead to more success. When the goal is to find enough talent in three to four year cycle that creates critical mass of talent to push the team forward, the Flames have failed miserably and continue to do so. Part of that is on Treliving's propensity to trade picks away, but it is also on mediocre drafting.
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Old 05-29-2021, 07:55 AM   #71
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The only thing that has really changed in Flames drafting, and drafting in general, is the hype surrounding it. The amount of information on these players has ballooned and created a cottage hype industry about a process and players that were hardly thought of. Now we have multiple publications repeating much of the same information and building these kids up to be something they will never be. Because we know so much about these kids, and have tracked them from before they were drafted, an attachment develops and they become something more than they are. In the past a player like Matthew Phillips would have been a blip on the radar, now he's hyped to be a great prospect. I don't see anything in the Flames' system that gives me any confidence that anything in their drafting has lead to more success. When the goal is to find enough talent in three to four year cycle that creates critical mass of talent to push the team forward, the Flames have failed miserably and continue to do so. Part of that is on Treliving's propensity to trade picks away, but it is also on mediocre drafting.
Mediocre drafting has hurt the team, but not during Treliving’s tenure. His first real draft was 2015. 3 NHL caliber players (if you include Kylington as I do). 2016 - 3 NHL caliber players, plus Parsons, who should have been. Tkachuk and Fox are stars. 2017 - just Val, but that’s mainly because the next pick was round 4. Same problem in 2018 - no picks until round 4. After that, it’s too early to tell.

But the bottom line is that the actual drafting work during Treliving’s tenure is fine for team building, but the work before didn’t provide enough NHL players, especially if you delete no-brainer first round picks like Bennett and Monahan. From 2005-2014 you have just Gaudreau, Ferland and Brodie coming out of rounds 2-9. And you have precious few first rounders making it either - just Backlund, unless you still consider Janko an NHLer. And of course, lack of drafting. The ability of Treliving and his team to get quality after the 1st round makes the lack of first rounders in 2017 and 2018 sting more.

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Old 05-29-2021, 08:06 AM   #72
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While appreciating the work put into it - the view is still too simple. Pass/fail is too binary.

For example these two drafts are classified both as "pass" when one is clearly MUCH better but that isn't accounted for at all.

2011 - Overall Grade - Pass
13th - Baertschi - Fail
45th - Granlund - Pass
57th - Wotherspoon - Fail
104th - Gaudreau - Pass
164th - Brossoit - Pass

2016 - Overall Grade - Pass
6th - Tkachuk - Pass
54th - Parsons - Fail
56th - Dube - Pass
66th - Fox - Pass
96th - Lindstrom - Fail
126th - Mattson - Fail
156th - Tuulola - TBD
166th - Phillips - TBD
186th - Falovsky - Fail
I did talk about the Pass guys after listing the draft classes.

Anyways, how is one of these classes much better than the other? Discounting the spot the players were picked at...the picks that became good players...

Gaudreau > Tkachuk. It might be a reverse when its all set and done but for now Gaudreau is the better player and likely will finish his career as the better player as well.

Granlund = Dube. Dube has time to be better or be out of the league before he matches Granlund's career totals.

Fox > Brossoit. Looks like this will hold but can Fox turn into a Del Zotto or a Gostisbhere? and Brossoit catched on with some team and becomes a #1? It is possible, Fox has only done it for 2 years so far.

The only thing one class has more is the number of picks.

As for as taking a deep dive into who were the guys that were picks around the Flames picks, it doesn't really matter imo. The Flames didn't take them.

---------------------------------------------

Looking at the bigger picture, the Flames constantly sign bottom 6 forwards in the free agency to fill out their roster. They traded away picks for top 4 dmen. They had been goalie hunting since Kipper retired (may still be, jury is out on Markstrom).

Your drafting should be able to find you depth players at the least. But looking at their bottom 6 forward for majority of the year were Lucic (trade), Ryan (UFA), Leivo (UFA), Ritchie (UFA), Dube (Draft), Nordstrom (UFA). Thats 1 out of 6 they drafted.

Year before it was Lucic (trade), Ryan (UFA), Frolik (UFA), Reider (UFA), Bennett (Draft), Jankowski (Draft), Dube (Draft)...4 out of 7 were UFAs with 2 internal draft picks being shipped out within a year.

On the bright side the top 6 is mostly drafted (they are the core players that get questioned a lot for this teams failures) but they were drafted by this scouting department.

They leave a lot on the table imo. A lot of talk and whole lot of nothing.
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Old 05-29-2021, 08:49 AM   #73
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^^ The Flames bottom 6 are not drafted because they have missed a few draft rounds where you pick those guys.

But I’m not sure I buy the premise. Look at the Avs. Top line all Av drafted. Second line, not even one Av pick. Ditto 3rd line, (except right now Jost is playing on that line as a result of Kadri being out). 4th line, just Newhook is an Av pick. Only 2 of their 6 starting D are Avs picks. Their goalies are not their draft picks.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:01 AM   #74
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This is a fair assessment. I still take major issue with the 2014 draft not falling under Treliving/Button

He was in full control of hockey decisions at that time, and had two months to prepare for the draft. Plus he was hired from Phoenix as an AGM where he managed the amateur scouting staff so it can’t be argued he was unprepared.

and that draft is a disaster. Highest pick in franchise history plus multiple seconds and we walked away with nothing while other teams found superstars
You might be right.

But in my experience ... going through it right now to be honest ... you can be named manager but you don't make all the decisions right off the hop.

He was hired on April 28th 2014, and the draft was eight weeks later.

Given the size of the personality and experience of Burke, and the fact that he had less than two months to get familiar with the scouting staff and implement his changes I think it pretty obvious it wasn't a Treliving draft.

Add in the fact that every draft since has looked more similar to the 2014 and I think it's a slam dunk to me.

Don't have proof though.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:13 AM   #75
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It seems like the Flames have pretty much been batting at 100 in terms of players who are 5'10 or under. At least since Dan Ryder was picked in 2005.

Pelletier, Francis, Kerins, Pettersen, Phillips, Mangiapane, and Gaudreau were all good picks, at least out of the gate.

It seems like the Flames are above average at drafting small players and below average at drafting large players. Every player 6'4 and taller over the past 20 years has pretty much been a bust.
And really, I think this trend goes all the way back to the beginning of the franchise.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:14 AM   #76
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With the Futa rumor I think the Flames ownership group were doing some homework the past month. Still think Tre is done soon.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:31 AM   #77
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To take an objective view one should do an analysis that is inclusive of number of picks and average per round of each of those picks. Then figure out number of NHLers and impact NHLers selected under that. Lots of work but otherwise, as with so many things, we are likely each going to assess aligned with what we've already decided.

My view, with its own bias, is that the drafting has improved and that the primary problem has been lack of picks.
Was thinking the same and I could do that.

The problem is we are really only looking at three draft years and comparing it to the league.

2015 2016 and 2017

But if you look at 2015 to 2020 only Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis have had less draft capital, which is a pretty good strike against Treliving from that crowd.

Moving picks as if a contender without getting any results of a contender.

Aside from that though the Flames have the second best games played / draft capital spent (behind Columbus) in this time frame.

To me that jumps off the page when it comes to what myself and others are saying. They're finding value despite spending too many picks.

The teams mentioned above ... Washington, Pittsburgh and St. Louis (Calgary's peers for draft capital) are worst, 5th worse and 10th in this category (St. Louis doing quite well).

Games played isn't an impact stat, but it's a pretty objective quick measure that is valued equally.

Calgary is 8th in games played in this time frame.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:33 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
Yes, agreed, we won’t change each other’s minds. And a good 24% of people surveyed agree with you that he should not be fired.

I agree that it has been poor management of draft capital. Which in the big picture negates any ‘per capita’ draft success ratio or late round successes (which I think most teams have)

And my view on Tre overall (should be / won’t be) is that these things do not exist in isolation. It has been poor management on several fronts.

Thing is I don’t even take as much issue with that assumption (don’t agree that it’s ‘proven to be wrong’ as it can’t be evaluated in isolation) as I do his response to it (apparently failing to identify coaching as a priority, plus I would have to give him overall failing grade in evaluating his roster assets, strengths, weaknesses and needs, and making appropriate moves)

Even if the draft record per capita is okay, it’s not stellar and there are shortfalls in too many other areas for it to matter.

Other than … well, it could be worse. I guess
Actually his draft record per capital is #2 in the league from 2015-2020 in simple games played vs draft capital spent.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:34 AM   #79
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The only thing that has really changed in Flames drafting, and drafting in general, is the hype surrounding it. The amount of information on these players has ballooned and created a cottage hype industry about a process and players that were hardly thought of. Now we have multiple publications repeating much of the same information and building these kids up to be something they will never be. Because we know so much about these kids, and have tracked them from before they were drafted, an attachment develops and they become something more than they are. In the past a player like Matthew Phillips would have been a blip on the radar, now he's hyped to be a great prospect. I don't see anything in the Flames' system that gives me any confidence that anything in their drafting has lead to more success. When the goal is to find enough talent in three to four year cycle that creates critical mass of talent to push the team forward, the Flames have failed miserably and continue to do so. Part of that is on Treliving's propensity to trade picks away, but it is also on mediocre drafting.
Just not true.

Luckily it's easy to pull on actual data and see the Flames are getting NHL players with limited draft capital.
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Old 05-29-2021, 09:45 AM   #80
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Parsons, and even Gilles, were good picks. An organization can’t be faulted for injuries or personal life issues that an individual may go through.

I think most are optimistic on Wolf

There is no way one can argue Parsons was a good pick. He isn’t even a good player at the ECHL level. You don’t draft players with the hopes they play well in junior

It’s especially worse knowing that Button wanted him earlier with the pick they traded away, which means he was ranked higher than Debrincat, Kyrou, Girard, Carter Hart etc. All great NHL players

Wolf was taken deep in the 7th round. It’s a successful pick ALREADY given he’s signed and surpassed Parsons on the depth chart.

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