Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Playoff Sam has a much smaller sample size than Regular Sam. Hard to conclude it is a real difference without more evidence.
I loved his last game, don’t get me wrong. Playing that way every night could also get you injured a lot.
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I'm not sure it's a
real difference either.
But I'm also not convinced that regular season Bennett's numbers are
reflective of his play. I do think confidence is a hell of a drug though, and when he's confident, he's a highly effective player.
Every year
something doesn't match up between his individual play and the counting stats. And then in the playoffs, it seems like both things just get "corrected".
In 2014-15, his rookie season playoffs. 18 year old Sam Bennett played well, and was even robbed of a couple big goals. He was playing on a line with Backlund and Colborne though, and I'd argue Backlund remains the best linemate he's ever had. Quality of linemate was pretty directly correlated with his offensive production.
In 2015-16, Bennett had a respectable rookie season. Some lulls, sure, particularly when stapled to Marcus Granlund's wing and when centering Lance Bouma, but outside of that some real hot streak. His goal scoring in January of that season was pretty epic. He was at his most productive either on Backlund's wing or in his early short stint centering Gaudreau.
2016-17, he legitimately struggled with Troy Brouwer. It wasn't until late in the season that Brouwer was replaced with Chiasson, and that line's metrics shot through the roof, but their
production as a line wasn't there in the regular season due to simply poor shooting percentages. It felt like the playoffs were just the dam breaking for that whole line (Versteeg and Chiasson as well). It was good timing for a guy whose play was trending up the last two months of the season. I thought he was our best center in the playoffs that year, and that's considering Monahan had an incredible playoffs. But I didn't see it as Bennett elevating his play - I just thought it was good timing after finally breaking free of Brouwer. One thing that really stood out about Bennett's
regular season that year though was his shot suppression as a center. At 5v5 he had shot supression numbers as strong as Backlund, and he was outstanding on the penalty kill that year. His shot generation however was lacking, which makes sense considering he was playing with Brouwer.
In 2017-18, Bennett was a chance generation machine but posted the worst on-ice and individual shooting percentages of his career,
by far. This wasn't unique to Bennett though, as guys even in our top six like Backlund, Gaudreau, and Frolik had abysmal seasons in terms of shooting percentage. One thing that really stood out this year, was that it was the polar opposite of the previous year. His shot suppression numbers were horrible, but his shot generation numbers were well up. I attribute this to an increase in linemate quality (Jankowski and Jagr were an upgrade on Brouwer), but a baffling move to the wing (Jankowski an inferior center to Bennett). What's interesting is that Bennett was among of the league leaders in shot assists this regular season. But if his linemates aren't finishing, he won't get actual counting assists.
In 2018-19, Bennett seemed to a spark to
whichever line he was put on (see Neal's numbers with and without Bennett), but that meant Bennett himself got the short end of the stick in terms of linemates. In the playoffs, his production came not with Jankowski and Neal who he was playing with 5v5, but on the PP and on a stint in game 5 up the lineup with Gaudreau and Brodie. With his
usual linemates, he actually had poor underlying numbers in the playoffs.
And then you have this season. The difference in linemates is obvious. Sam Bennett had
zero secondary assists this season. Zero. You can pick up a secondary assist by doing almost
nothing, if the other four guys you pass to can produce a goal. But it simply wasn't happening. Bennett himself was actually scoring and had around as many primary assists as guys like Dube, but the secondary assist were non-existant. He had an unsustainable season, and we see in the playoffs that the unsustainability simply ended.
I wish I could buy what the large sample size claims, but it just doesn't jive at all with the player on the ice. The player we see in the playoffs is practically the same player, albeit more physical. He simply produces more akin to what the eye test suggests he ought to be producing in the regular season. It's bizarre, but not unprecedented. Elias Lindholm's actually another guy whose numbers in Carolina were unremarkable due to similarly low on-ice shooting percentages, although he got far more opportunity there on a less talented roster.
