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View Poll Results: Who are you voting for?
Alberta Party 59 25.21%
United Conservative Party 94 40.17%
Alberta Liberal Party 4 1.71%
Freedom Conservative Party 0 0%
Other 4 1.71%
I will not vote in this election 6 2.56%
I will spoil my ballot 1 0.43%
Undecided 7 2.99%
NDP 57 24.36%
Alberta Independence Party 2 0.85%
Voters: 234. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-15-2019, 04:48 PM   #21
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Nice that all of the 28 Alberta Party voters are also posters on CP.
We all probably live in different ridings too
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:54 PM   #22
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The CBC has the UCP at a 99% chance of winning a majority.
They figure that at best the NDP will get 31 seats, and at worst they will land about 17.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:08 PM   #23
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Obviously worked out 100% in the NDP's favour last election with a majority government (62% of the seats) despite 40% of the vote. But still weird to me that UCP could get 70 seats (80% of them) with under 50% of the vote. Actually surprising that the NDP's polling at 38%, that's really not all the big of a dip of their 40% they got last time.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:34 PM   #24
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The CBC has the UCP at a 99% chance of winning a majority.
They figure that at best the NDP will get 31 seats, and at worst they will land about 17.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/
Most if not all of the seats the NDP wins will be cabinet ministers.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:38 PM   #25
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Obviously worked out 100% in the NDP's favour last election with a majority government (62% of the seats) despite 40% of the vote. But still weird to me that UCP could get 70 seats (80% of them) with under 50% of the vote. Actually surprising that the NDP's polling at 38%, that's really not all the big of a dip of their 40% they got last time.
They were saying on Alberta Prime Time last week that the 40% the NDP got in 2015 was the lowest number for a governing party in Alberta history.

It was also mentioned that the NDP are polling about the same as they did in 2015. Unfortunately they won't have the advantage of vote splitting between the PCP and WRP.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:45 PM   #26
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They were saying on Alberta Prime Time last week that the 40% the NDP got in 2015 was the lowest number for a governing party in Alberta history.

It was also mentioned that the NDP are polling about the same as they did in 2015. Unfortunately they won't have the advantage of vote splitting between the PCP and WRP.
If the CP poll is anything to go by, the UCP is polling at about 40% and doing no better. If anything our own poll suggests that the the UCP would get slaughtered if the AP and NDP weren't vote splitting. I don't think CP will be representative of the greater population though.

Either way, it means squat since we have a FPTP system. The UCP will have their victory and a resounding one at that with seat counts, which is highly unfortunate, even if they fall far short of the majority of Albertans who voted in this election.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:51 PM   #27
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[QUOTE=Ozy_Flame;7080713]If anything our own poll suggests that the the UCP would get slaughtered if the AP and NDP weren't vote splitting. I don't think CP will be representative of the greater population though./QUOTE]

I don't know if you can say Alberta Party is vote splitting one way or the other though. Remove them as a 'serious' party and there's probably close to equal parts voting for UCP and NDP.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:55 PM   #28
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I don't disagree with that sentiment. I'm curious what specific things you like about the Alberta Party - they seem less put together than last time to me, and I haven't seen anything that suggests they deserve to govern. Or is it more of a protest vote type situation?
My reason is so that they can hopefully build more momentum for next time
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:56 PM   #29
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I threw David Khan a vote in Mountainview. I thought he had a bold idea for a tax plan. he won't win, but whatever.
This is me.
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Old 04-15-2019, 08:45 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame View Post
If the CP poll is anything to go by, the UCP is polling at about 40% and doing no better. If anything our own poll suggests that the the UCP would get slaughtered if the AP and NDP weren't vote splitting. I don't think CP will be representative of the greater population though.

Either way, it means squat since we have a FPTP system. The UCP will have their victory and a resounding one at that with seat counts, which is highly unfortunate, even if they fall far short of the majority of Albertans who voted in this election.
I don’t know who I would vote for between NDP and UCP. The assumption that they all go NDP is certainly false.
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Old 04-16-2019, 06:59 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame View Post
If the CP poll is anything to go by, the UCP is polling at about 40% and doing no better. If anything our own poll suggests that the the UCP would get slaughtered if the AP and NDP weren't vote splitting. I don't think CP will be representative of the greater population though.

Either way, it means squat since we have a FPTP system. The UCP will have their victory and a resounding one at that with seat counts, which is highly unfortunate, even if they fall far short of the majority of Albertans who voted in this election.
CP polls are fun, but not scientific samples of likely voters—or even of CP posters. They shouldn’t be taken as predictive. It is kind of interesting to see how the people who choose to participate in our polls compare to the electorate as a whole, but it isn’t anything more than that.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:14 AM   #32
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CP polls are fun, but not scientific samples of likely voters—or even of CP posters. They shouldn’t be taken as predictive. It is kind of interesting to see how the people who choose to participate in our polls compare to the electorate as a whole, but it isn’t anything more than that.
Well aware of that.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:16 AM   #33
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We all probably live in different ridings too

Either that or we all live in Calgary-Elbow
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:27 AM   #34
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The calgary puck olympic poll predicted it would be a yes for the olympics. Calgary puck is a left leaning forum.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:31 AM   #35
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Well aware of that.
I figured—more a general reminder as I’ve seen others extrapolate from CP polls a bit on other contexts.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:33 AM   #36
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Either that or we all live in Calgary-Elbow
I actually do—and think it will be a pretty interesting race to watch tonight. Two strong candidates running pretty close based on all that I’ve heard—though I’ve seen nothing scientific to suggest which way it’s leaning.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:40 AM   #37
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I actually do—and think it will be a pretty interesting race to watch tonight. Two strong candidates running pretty close based on all that I’ve heard—though I’ve seen nothing scientific to suggest which way it’s leaning.
Only thing out there is this... AFAIK.

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/1009e.htm

So what are the predictions?

I've got UCP 49.2% and 61 seats, NDP 37.5% and 25 seats, AB Party 11.8% and 1 seat....Liberals get their annual 1.2%.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:53 AM   #38
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Only thing out there is this... AFAIK.

http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/1009e.htm

So what are the predictions?

I've got UCP 49.2% and 61 seats, NDP 37.5% and 25 seats, AB Party 11.8% and 1 seat....Liberals get their annual 1.2%.
I suspect that prediction is pretty close to bang on. I think the Alberta Party has an outside shot at 2 seats but that is just a gut feeling.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:59 AM   #39
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What about the ABP excites people?

They had nice costed budgets before and really seemed to take fiscal responsibility seriously. But then in this campaign they go on about all these cool new futuristic things like autonomous car lanes, all while repealing the carbon tax and having no new revenue generators. Basically another party that wants to spend all the dollars without a care for the environment, the people or the debt.
Honestly? They don't really excite me. But I can't stand Notley and Kenney isn't any better. And since, ideologically, I lie between where the UCP and ABP sit currently, I'm voting Alberta Party in the hope that they get enough support to force the Conservatives to pull back toward where I'd like to see them. That can only happen if the Alberta Party gets enough votes to become relevant in more ridings than just Calgary-Elbow.

Likely a fool's errand, but it is what it is.
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:56 AM   #40
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The calgary puck olympic poll predicted it would be a yes for the olympics. Calgary puck is a left leaning forum.
I think that CP is socially progressive. That said, they are fiscally conservative. This would explain the support for the AP.

I would even go out on a limb and say that the majority of the province is socially progressive. I forget who said it, but whoever said that they cared more about economics than social issues pretty well captured the public opinion. Still, that doesn't mean that people are not socially progressive. The people caught in the middle so to speak are just "forced" to vote for a big tent conservative party.
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