Brad Treliving needs to go

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I've refuted this many times...4OA pick is only a bit better odds than a coin flip to get a top half of the roster player.

Backstrom. Johansen. Ricci. Weiss. These are the 4 best C's from this slot in 30 years.

Of the 18 forwards drafted in that time, Bennett is probably 10th-11th best - ie. slightly below average. Kariya, Marner, B Tkachuk, E Kane, Ladd are the other 5 definitely ahead of him, PullRV TBD. Some nice players, but all are more complimentary than cornerstone.

Everyone had unrealistic expectations b/c he was our highest ever pick, and b/c Sean and Chucky are in the top quartile of 6OA picks.



Again, it's about looking forward, not simply measuring past W's and L's. Is there a better replacement available to navigate the next 12-18 months? We're in an unprecedented situation here, and the team clearly needs immediate changes.

Do you want to wait for an outsider to get up to speed on both the Flames and the operational realities of COVID NHL? Who?

Lombardi's been out for a few years...Futa






I don't even know that they were in a rush to kick open the window, but that once there was a crack of light after '14-15 it was pedal to the floor. We can't forget who was POHO at that point...look at how he operated in TOR and ANA.

You are cherry picking the slot. Ignoring that Vancouver got Petterson at 5OA, Jets got Wheeler, Habs got Price, Boston got Kessel, Pens got Jagr.

Plus, E. Kane was drafted at 4OA as a centre. Also 4OA: RyJo. Ron Francis. Kariya. Backstrom. Marner (who was a C/RW, which would have been nice).

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I’m not so sure I would calm myself a Treliving fan, but, on balance, I think he is a good GM. I also think the likelihood of him getting let go this offseason to be slim. If he was in danger of being let go, it would have happened along with the Sutter hire. Maloney or Conroy would have been named interim GM and the organization would have cleaned house in the offseason and named a new GM then. Just my two cents.

I’m also not of the mindset that Treliving has above reproach. He has made some costly mistakes and misjudgment’s, he deserves criticism. The Hamonic trade is going to stick with him like the Erat-Forsberg trade has stuck with McPhee. The thing is, any GM who has had tenure is going to have a few blunders on the record. It’s the cost of doing business. But I’m not advocating a bloodletting. I don’t think a change at the position is likely to happen or even called for at this point.

Any GM that replaces Treliving will make mistakes, on that you can be assured. So why replace the one we have? This thread is full of recycled complaints; the Hamonic trade, not acquiring an elite C, not acquiring an elite G sooner, terrible coaching hires, etc etc. None of it matters.

What does matter is what Treliving does over the next 12-16 months. I hope it starts this week with selling off some expiring assets for draft picks/currency. A popular, but shortsighted, complaint is Treliving deals too many picks. Well, maybe he can flip the script this time around.

Well you’re probably right that he won’t be canned, even though it’d be more than fair. I’m not sure if letting him go makes 100% sense either as i don’t know what candidates are even available. So would Tre coming back be the end of the world, no; I wouldn’t necessarily hate it as I think he has done some good things here and he works harder than anyone. But If he does come back, 2 major things need to happen. His philosophy has to change and I wouldn’t want him scouting too much either because I don’t trust his player evaluation. He would need a new pro scouting staff as they’ve been awful in comparison to the amateur side. I actually think had the resources shifted over more to the amateur side, this team would be a lot better than what we’re seeing now. Some of the picks in the later rounds that these guys have found deserve a chef’s kiss.


With all that said though, I still think all this micro level talk is pointless. Like, some will say he did this well and others will say he didn’t do that well and It’s all weighted differently based on our own different perceptions. So perhaps the answer is more about comparing the performances relative to his peers. For instance, here’s a list of comparable GMs I just compiled from Wikipedia. I’d be interested to see everyone else’s viewpoints:



1. Anaheim Ducks - Bob Murray - November 12, 2008
2. Chicago Blackhawks - Stan Bowman - July 14, 2009
3. Colorado Avalanche - Joe Sakic - September 19, 2014
4. Columbus Blue Jackets - Jarmo Kekalainen - February 13, 2013
5. Dallas Stars - Jim Nill- April 29, 2013
6. Montreal Canadiens - Marc Bergevin - May 2, 2012
7. Nashville Predators- David Poile - July 9, 1997
8. San Jose Sharks - Doug Wilson - May 13, 2003
9.,St. Louis Blues - Doug Armstrong - July 1, 2010
10. Vancouver Canucks - Jim Benning - May 21, 2014
11. Washington Capitals - Brian MacLellan- May 26, 2014


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[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I've refuted this many times...4OA pick is only a bit better odds than a coin flip to get a top half of the roster player.

Backstrom. Johansen. Ricci. Weiss. These are the 4 best C's from this slot in 30 years.

Of the 18 forwards drafted in that time, Bennett is probably 10th-11th best - ie. slightly below average. Kariya, Marner, B Tkachuk, E Kane, Ladd are the other 5 definitely ahead of him, PullRV TBD. Some nice players, but all are more complimentary than cornerstone.

Everyone had unrealistic expectations b/c he was our highest ever pick, and b/c Sean and Chucky are in the top quartile of 6OA picks.



Again, it's about looking forward, not simply measuring past W's and L's. Is there a better replacement available to navigate the next 12-18 months? We're in an unprecedented situation here, and the team clearly needs immediate changes.

Do you want to wait for an outsider to get up to speed on both the Flames and the operational realities of COVID NHL? Who?

Lombardi's been out for a few years...Futa






I don't even know that they were in a rush to kick open the window, but that once there was a crack of light after '14-15 it was pedal to the floor. We can't forget who was POHO at that point...look at how he operated in TOR and ANA.

Lol you can’t look at it that way.... you have to look at all the great centers that were picked 4th and below. For example Schiefele, Ziban, Couturier, Marner, Barzal and more are all the centers you could have picked with a 4th in theory

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

3 other teams did pass up on him though, so maybe they weren’t all fawning over him like CSS was. I’ll say this though and it’ll sound like I’m tooting my own horn so I’ll apologize in advanced, but there were definite signs that had me weary on his potential. I was never enamored with his hockey IQ, he’d do a couple of little things on the ice with and without the puck that had me scratching my head. The way he processed the game wasn’t up to NHL standards for centers either, your centers probably need to be the smartest players on the ice because pressure points can come from any direction and Bennett takes forever to make decisions. Even to this day, it’s still there at times, you can see him coral the puck while looking down, not pushing with enough pace, has no idea that a backcheck is hot on his tail, he has no awareness of where his wingers are or how the play is developing and next thing you know, turnover, or play killed on his stick. His hockey IQ ultimately holds him back the most and his raw tools aren’t elite enough to compensate. It’s very unfortunate.

Sounds like a lot of things that could/should have been worked on in the AHL. It sucks that he wasn't eligible to go there in D+2.

Not sending him to the world Jrs that year does seem like a missed opportunity. Sam (and the Flames) had a really slow start to the season. He did a lot better in November, but only put up 1A in the 18 games between Nov 27 and Jan 7 (of course he scored 8G in the next 5gp, including the 4 goal game).

Not sure when that decision deadline was and what dates he would have missed, but it couldn't have been any worse than staying here for the suck fest.


There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't have had a stint of 2 in the A the following two years.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by madmike

For those criticizing the Bennett pick, Michael Dal Colle and Jake Virtanen were taken right after him. Nick Ritchie went 10th overall. It was a pretty ugly first round. Bennett was the right pick - he just didn’t work out the way almost every scouting department including the Flames thought he would.

Good pick, but bad development plan for him. There's no guarantee it would have worked out differently if they put him back in junior for another year and then a year in the AHL, but that is a normal thing to do for most prospects, especially ones that miss a lot of time due to injury.

I was personally hoping we would pick Ehlers. Not that I had any special insight on him, but because he seemed to be a riser that year. The way most scouting agencies and media rank prospects tend to average out their body of work, but when it comes to prospects, I prefer to look at their trajectory more than anything. Having said that, Bennett was an extremely intriguing pick at the time and no one was complaining. I lived in Kingston at the time he was playing there and saw him live quite a few times. He was noticeably the best player on the ice every game I watched. He played on the wing most times I saw him, not sure if that was just a coincidence or if it was a regular occurrence.

The only criticism people had at the time, and one that I think still holds true, is that he always tried to do things by himself. People here complain that he wasn't given the best line mates in his first few years, but it's kind of a waste of good line mates when the center doesn't use them well.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

...Rittich has heavily outplayed Markstrom. That might count as exceeding expectations...

I would disagree strongly with this. Rittich had a fantastic week in which he stoned the Leafs for a couple of games. Otherwise he has been very pedestrian. Markstrom's poor play does not make Rittich's appear any better.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

We know he reportedly made a try for Tavares. Staal? Are you talking about the offseason before 2016? He was trending down and coming off a miserable time in NY. He did surge in Minnie. And, at the time, the Flames had just come off their PO win, they had Bennett still coming into his rookie year, and Staal was 32 I think.

O’Reilly I really wanted them to trade for but let’s all be honest - he wasn’t thought of as a 1C back then. 64 points in his best season which was 5 years earlier. I wanted him as a 2C and Backlund would have gone the other way with Bennett (for supposedly expensive ROR and a struggling Reinhart). Turns out he’s a 1C but not exactly an offensive

Off season after 2016 where the Flames finished near the bottom after Sam Bennett’s rookie season and Monahan’s 58 points season and To me, this is where scouts earn their money. Any random fan who gets paid absolutely nothing can see that Eric Staal’s game was slipping in Carolina. But it takes a good scout to see through age and not just assume it’s father time because clearly Eric Staal still had it.

I mean, did the stats say Elias Lindholm was looking like a quality 2 way center with 30 goal potential? Ditto for JT Miller with the Canucks? This is where scouts earn their jobs, to see through age and numbers and find a good fit. Who knows, maybe in a different universe, the Flames do end up signing Eric Staal to a bargain contract and he scores 30-40 goals every season for the Flames and we finally get that depth up the middle we’ve been yearning for and we go on to win multiple playoff rounds for a few years. I would’ve taken that then what has actually transpired.


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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Good pick, but bad development plan for him. There's no guarantee it would have worked out differently if they put him back in junior for another year and then a year in the AHL, but that is a normal thing to do for most prospects, especially ones that miss a lot of time due to injury...

In hindsight this may have been best. But when Bennett did come back to play in Kingston in 2015 he was head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in that League—he scored 11 goals and 24 points in 11 games. As I recall, once his season was over there was no recourse for him to play in the AHL, so it made perfectly good sense to have him join the Flames in the playoffs. The following year he put together a solid rookie campaign. Yes, there were later opportunities to send him to grow in the AHL, but I don't believe the issues were ever so glaring as to make it obvious.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Well, when was the last time Johnny/Monahan line playing well? 2018?
Brad just sat on his ass watching, he deserved the blame

2019 All star break.

The 19-20 season would reasonably be used to see if the Gaudreau Monahan issue after the all star game was permanent.

That season had a racist coach issue, and a covid ending.

There really isn't as much time as you think here. Just this last off season where I honestly think they kicked tires on moving both.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Sounds like a lot of things that could/should have been worked on in the AHL. It sucks that he wasn't eligible to go there in D+2.

Not sending him to the world Jrs that year does seem like a missed opportunity. Sam (and the Flames) had a really slow start to the season. He did a lot better in November, but only put up 1A in the 18 games between Nov 27 and Jan 7 (of course he scored 8G in the next 5gp, including the 4 goal game).

Not sure when that decision deadline was and what dates he would have missed, but it couldn't have been any worse than staying here for the suck fest.


There's absolutely no reason he shouldn't have had a stint of 2 in the A the following two years.

How does the AHL fix his hockey IQ though? How does the AHL fix his hands or improve his first step? How does the AHL fix his meager size for the center position?

It’s not like Sam Bennett hasn’t figured it out in the NHL before. Last August was the best hockey I’ve ever seen him play. So he’s done it at this level against higher competition.

He just can’t translate it to the regular season and I’m not sure he can with the 82 game schedule and way the game is called.


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[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You are cherry picking the slot. Ignoring that Vancouver got Petterson at 5OA, Jets got Wheeler, Habs got Price, Boston got Kessel, Pens got Jagr.

Plus, E. Kane was drafted at 4OA as a centre. Also 4OA: RyJo. Ron Francis. Kariya. Backstrom. Marner (who was a C/RW, which would have been nice).

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Lol you can’t look at it that way.... you have to look at all the great centers that were picked 4th and below. For example Schiefele, Ziban, Couturier, Marner, Barzal and more are all the centers you could have picked with a 4th in theory

You could also get Pavel Brendl, Chad Kilger, or Michael Dal Colle.

It's just about what reasonable expectations are. With a 4OA you have roughly a:

~30% chance of a great player like Backstrom/Kariya/Marner
~30% chance of a very good player like Ricci, Ladd, or Weiss
~20% chance of a disappointing but still useful player like Bennett, Pouliot, or Zherdev
~20% chance of a total bust like Brendl or Bonsignore

Every subsequent pick those odds get a bit worse.


Yes, you could also get Jagr at 5 or Forsberg at 6 or Scheifele at 7 or Bergeron at 45 or Point at 79 or Zetterberg at 210. That doesn't make it a reasonable thing to expect.


At 4 you could also get Luongo, Pietrangelo, or Seth Jones. Or Griffin Reinhart. Or most likely someone in the middle like Klesla, Larsson, Bryan Allen, or Pitkanen.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

How does the AHL fix his hockey IQ though? How does the AHL fix his hands or improve his first step? How does the AHL fix his meager size for the center position?

It’s not like Sam Bennett hasn’t figured it out in the NHL before. Last August was the best hockey I’ve ever seen him play. So he’s done it at this level against higher competition.

He just can’t translate it to the regular season and I’m not sure he can with the 82 game schedule and way the game is called.


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I will volunteer one thing. Sutter seems to be paying attention to Sam’s development.

Both he and Monahan have been deployed on the PK and so far, they have looked quite good. Good centres are good on both sides of the puck so he is giving them specific extra defensive assignments

Sutter also has spoken about asking Bennett to play a simple game with more straight lines

Finally, he said something about being able to use him in various places in the lineup

While the team has been collectively ####ting the bed, and I am not saying Sam is flourishing, but there seems to be communication and clear expectations, which is interesting.

We will see how well it works with the player

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

How does the AHL fix his hockey IQ though? How does the AHL fix his hands or improve his first step? How does the AHL fix his meager size for the center position?

You should probably stop beating this drum: Half of the top-scoring centres in the NHL are Bennett's size or smaller.

[powderjunkie]

1. Borderline Generational -2
5 Jaromir Jagr
6 Peter Forsberg

2. Top 2-3 F on a good team - 11
3 Jonathan Toews*
3 Henrik Sedin
3 Marian Gaborik
3 Keith Primeau
3 Olli Jokinen
4 Paul Kariya
4 Nicklas Backstrom
5 Blake Wheeler
5 Phil Kessel
5 Thomas Vanek
6 Ryan Smyth

2.5 TBD - 9

3 Leon Draisaitl
3 Jonathan Huberdeau
3 Pierre-Luc Dubois
4 Mitch Marner
5 Elias Pettersson
5 Elias Lindholm
6 Sean Monahan
6 Mika Zibanejad
6 Matthew Tkachuk

4 Brady Tkachuk (2018)


3. Very good 2nd Liner on a good team - 17
3 Matt Duchene
3 Chris Gratton
3 Nathan Horton
3 Radek Bonk
3 J.P. Dumont
4 Mike Ricci
4 Andrew Ladd
4 Evander Kane
4 Ryan Johansen
4 Stephen Weiss
5 Daymond Langkow
5 Brayden Schenn*
6 Cory Stillman*
6 Mikko Koivu*
6 Scott Hartnell*
6 Viktor Kozlov
6 Derick Brassard


3.5 TBD - 7

3 Dylan Strome
3 Jonathan Drouin (still seems like a tweener)
4 Sam Bennett
4 Jesse Puljujarvi
6 Pavel Zacha
6 Jake Virtanen
6 Cody Glass* (2017...still early)



4. Bottom 9 (maybe some flashes of goodness) - 17
3 Kyle Turris
3 Alex Galchenyuk
4 Benoit Pouliot
4 Chad Kilger
4 Todd Warriner
4 Nikolai Zherdev
5 Ryan Strome*
5 Nino Niederreiter
5 Jeff O'Neill*
5 Rob Niedermayer
5 Tim Connolly
5 Raffi Torres
6 Sam Gagner
6 Milan Michalek
6 Scottie Upshall
6 Brett Connolly
6 Boyd Devereaux



Bust - 12

3 Alexandr Svitov
4 Jason Bonsignore
4 Alexandre Volchkov
4 Pavel Brendl
5 Stanislav Chistov
5 Michael Dal Colle
6 Gilbert Brule
6 Rico Fata
6 Steve Kelly
6 Nikita Filatov
6 Daniel Tkaczuk
6 Scott Scissons


*strong case to move up a group

75 Forwards here drafted since 1990-2017. Obviously it's very subjective and hard to distinguish between the worst few guys of group 2 or 3 and the top of group 3 or 4, etc.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don’t know that he ignored the centre issue, though it’s huge, like you say. IMO Lindholm was an attempt to deal with it. But the Neal failure put him on RW. And I don’t know that there were any opportunities to corral a better C than Lindholm ever. What better Cs have moved? Tavares (no shot), then nothing until PLD this year.

I don’t think Lindholm was acquired to be a centre. He didn’t skated as a RW right from the start of camp when we acquired him.

I think moving Lindholm to centre this season also had to do with the fact that the Flames were trying to move Monahan for Anderson.

Lindholm
Backlund
Bennett
Ryan

Is what I believe the centre depth would have been had Treliving been able to acquire Anderson.

Which is also something to keep in mind on any returns for Monahan. Columbus chose Max Domi over Monahan in a return for Anderson.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

You could also get Pavel Brendl, Chad Kilger, or Michael Dal Colle.

It's just about what reasonable expectations are. With a 4OA you have roughly a:

~30% chance of a great player like Backstrom/Kariya/Marner
~30% chance of a very good player like Ricci, Ladd, or Weiss
~20% chance of a disappointing but still useful player like Bennett, Pouliot, or Zherdev
~20% chance of a total bust like Brendl or Bonsignore

Every subsequent pick those odds get a bit worse.


Yes, you could also get Jagr at 5 or Forsberg at 6 or Scheifele at 7 or Bergeron at 45 or Point at 79 or Zetterberg at 210. That doesn't make it a reasonable thing to expect.


At 4 you could also get Luongo, Pietrangelo, or Seth Jones. Or Griffin Reinhart. Or most likely someone in the middle like Klesla, Larsson, Bryan Allen, or Pitkanen.

Yes obviously there is no guarantee, not even with a first.

But with the 4th pick, you are expected to pick a very good NHLer if you know what you are doing. In every draft year there are more than 4!good players. That said nobody is perfect and #### happened

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don’t think Lindholm was acquired to be a centre. He didn’t skated as a RW right from the start of camp when we acquired him.

I think moving Lindholm to centre this season also had to do with the fact that the Flames were trying to move Monahan for Anderson.

Lindholm
Backlund
Bennett
Ryan

Is what I believe the centre depth would have been had Treliving been able to acquire Anderson.

Which is also something to keep in mind on any returns for Monahan. Columbus chose Max Domi over Monahan in a return for Anderson.

Possibly, but without knowing all the pieces involved, or which team blinked first this is not certain.

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[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Or trading for Hamonic vs. signing Kris Russell. Both teams have had pretty ####ty GM's since 2011. Unfortunately the Oilers have a NHL GM now so that ability to assume that they will suck because of a crappy GM is now gone.

Yes, Edmonton has their HHOF GM, but he’s made the exact same mistakes Treliving has and is getting ripped for here. Holland left Detroit a mess. Stephe Weiss was signed to a $24.5 over 5 year deal. He played 78 games over two seasons (3 in Grand Rapids, so there’s that). What did Frans Neilsen get, who’s still there. How about Mike Green?

Moving on to Edmonton, he sure ran a muck of it at last years TDL. Two seconds (TWO!!) and Sam Gagner for AA and a plug. Yikes. A 4th for Mike Green.....

I would say Treliving’s TDL day last year beat the HHOF GM up North.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Yes, Edmonton has their HHOF GM, but he’s made the exact same mistakes Treliving has and is getting ripped for here. Holland left Detroit a mess. Stephe Weiss was signed to a $24.5 over 5 year deal. He played 78 games over two seasons (3 in Grand Rapids, so there’s that). What did Frans Neilsen get, who’s still there. How about Mike Green?



Moving on to Edmonton, he sure ran a muck of it at last years TDL. Two seconds and Sam Gagner for AA and a plug. Yikes. A 4th for Mike Green.....



I would say Treliving’s TDL day last year beat the HHOF GM up North.

The Lucic for Neal trade that included salary and a third-round pick was also not a great move.

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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don’t think Lindholm was acquired to be a centre. He didn’t skated as a RW right from the start of camp when we acquired him.

I think moving Lindholm to centre this season also had to do with the fact that the Flames were trying to move Monahan for Anderson.

Lindholm
Backlund
Bennett
Ryan

Is what I believe the centre depth would have been had Treliving been able to acquire Anderson.

Which is also something to keep in mind on any returns for Monahan. Columbus chose Max Domi over Monahan in a return for Anderson.

Lindholm was acquired to do what he is doing now - Treliving figured a 1A 1B was next best thing to an elite centre. The Flames were counting on Neal to be a top RW on one of those lines. That worked out as well as we all know, so Lindholm had to play RW, pretty much right out of camp.

I think Treliving was figuring on one of Ryan, Bennett or Czarnik playing RW in the top 6 as well.