Top 5 Defensive Team / Top 10 Offensive Team

[Rutuu]

If we're going to be a contender we need to be a top 5 defensive team, and a top 10 offensive team from a GF / GA perspective.

Darryl Sutter is one of the best defensive coaches to coach and he's got a goalie in Markstrom that can deliver on his strategy.

Losing Gaudreau puts a big hole in our offence, but we are still have other scorers.

Last year we scored 291 goals and allowed 208 against. Darryl and Markstrom should take care of the GA part of the equation. To be a top 10 team this last year you needed to scored 275 goals. To be in the top half of the league you needed 255goals.

Running a model based on shot volumes and shooting %'s normalising, and subbing in a 25goal forward for Gaudreau I can get the Flames to 225 goals (195 from the forwards and 30 from the D, last year the split was 250F / 41D).

Notable changes from my model:

• minus 16 goals Tkachuk and Lindholm (both are in the 25goal range now)
  plus 4 goals for Backlund - the shot volume is there, but his shooting % has fallen likely because he's throwing it on net from worse spots and is a little slower and can't get to the high danger areas
  plus 5 goals for Coleman - he's got the shot volume and is young enough to mean revert to his shooting %
  minus 10-15 goals for Mangiapane - the biggest faller and it is all on shooting %. If he takes the next step and can get his shot volume up to 230-250 per year from the 185 he had this season, it helps a lot.

Kadri and Neiderreiter are the two scorers out there that are UFA. Stastny is 36yrs old but put up 20g last year.

Having our D take a step forward and increase their shot volumes (Kylington and Andersson) also helps, as long as it doesn't take shots from the forwards (D shooting % is 4%-ish compared to 8-12% for a forward).

Oh and for the tank commanders out there...220 goals for and <210 goals against puts us in bubble territory where we are eliminated from the playoffs in the last 10days of the season.

So...how do we get that extra 35 - 50goals?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

If we're going to be a contender we need to be a top 5 defensive team, and a top 10 offensive team from a GF / GA perspective.

Darryl Sutter is one of the best defensive coaches to coach and he's got a goalie in Markstrom that can deliver on his strategy.

Losing Gaudreau puts a big hole in our offence, but we are still have other scorers.

Last year we scored 291 goals and allowed 208 against. Darryl and Markstrom should take care of the GA part of the equation. To be a top 10 team this last year you needed to scored 275 goals. To be in the top half of the league you needed 255goals.

Running a model based on shot volumes and shooting %'s normalising, and subbing in a 25goal forward for Gaudreau I can get the Flames to 225 goals (195 from the forwards and 30 from the D, last year the split was 250F / 41D).

Notable changes from my model:

• minus 16 goals Tkachuk and Lindholm (both are in the 25goal range now)
  plus 4 goals for Backlund - the shot volume is there, but his shooting % has fallen likely because he's throwing it on net from worse spots and is a little slower and can't get to the high danger areas
  plus 5 goals for Coleman - he's got the shot volume and is young enough to mean revert to his shooting %
  minus 10-15 goals for Mangiapane - the biggest faller and it is all on shooting %. If he takes the next step and can get his shot volume up to 230-250 per year from the 185 he had this season, it helps a lot.

Kadri and Neiderreiter are the two scorers out there that are UFA. Stastny is 36yrs old but put up 20g last year.

Having our D take a step forward and increase their shot volumes (Kylington and Andersson) also helps, as long as it doesn't take shots from the forwards (D shooting % is 4%-ish compared to 8-12% for a forward).

Oh and for the tank commanders out there...220 goals for and <210 goals against puts us in bubble territory where we are eliminated from the playoffs in the last 10days of the season.

So...how do we get that extra 35 - 50goals?

You have essentially subtracted 45 goals in total from our 3 top goal scorers, that seems a little high. I expect Mangiapane to have a bigger role next year(and more PP time) with at least a similar production. As the team stands offense will be harder to come by, but we didn’t simply lose 80 goals in one player, there will be 19 more mins of opportunity/game for other players to pick up the scoring.

Possible sources of goals Dube, Ruzicka, Pelletier in an increased role that leads to career years. All of Monahan, Toffoli, Coleman, and Backlund have more to give. The same can be said of Andersson being snake bitten despite having a good shot. One emphasis to start the season would be the PP without Gaudreau. Who carries the puck on entries, who keeps it longer, what set plays work with Gaudreau’s replacement etc.

[dino7c]

Flames also don't need to win games 5 and 6-0

In their wins the Flames often scored far more than they needed to

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

If we're going to be a contender we need to be a top 5 defensive team, and a top 10 offensive team from a GF / GA perspective.

Darryl Sutter is one of the best defensive coaches to coach and he's got a goalie in Markstrom that can deliver on his strategy.

Losing Gaudreau puts a big hole in our offence, but we are still have other scorers.

Last year we scored 291 goals and allowed 208 against. Darryl and Markstrom should take care of the GA part of the equation. To be a top 10 team this last year you needed to scored 275 goals. To be in the top half of the league you needed 255goals.

Running a model based on shot volumes and shooting %'s normalising, and subbing in a 25goal forward for Gaudreau I can get the Flames to 225 goals (195 from the forwards and 30 from the D, last year the split was 250F / 41D).

Notable changes from my model:

• minus 16 goals Tkachuk and Lindholm (both are in the 25goal range now)
  plus 4 goals for Backlund - the shot volume is there, but his shooting % has fallen likely because he's throwing it on net from worse spots and is a little slower and can't get to the high danger areas
  plus 5 goals for Coleman - he's got the shot volume and is young enough to mean revert to his shooting %
  minus 10-15 goals for Mangiapane - the biggest faller and it is all on shooting %. If he takes the next step and can get his shot volume up to 230-250 per year from the 185 he had this season, it helps a lot.

Kadri and Neiderreiter are the two scorers out there that are UFA. Stastny is 36yrs old but put up 20g last year.

Having our D take a step forward and increase their shot volumes (Kylington and Andersson) also helps, as long as it doesn't take shots from the forwards (D shooting % is 4%-ish compared to 8-12% for a forward).

Oh and for the tank commanders out there...220 goals for and <210 goals against puts us in bubble territory where we are eliminated from the playoffs in the last 10days of the season.

So...how do we get that extra 35 - 50goals?

Updating the post with Kadri, Weegar and Huberdeau additions I have us at 240 goals. A bigger role Mangiapane gets us over 250 goals (260+ shots - very Pastrnak-like).

We're definitely a contender again. We get another scoring winger for the front six (or top 1-2 D...haha yeah right, not even the wizard has that trick up his sleeve) and we're even better.

[cral12]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1560324178279927808

[PuckSlap]

Originally Posted by cral12

https://twitter.com/user/status/1560324178279927808

We will bump up if we get that too 6 right winger

[cral12]

The Score had Flames 9th on this list pre-Kadri FWIW.

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2391136

Have to feel we've elevated to Top 5. Plus, with the Huby/Weegs fleece I daresay Panthers are weaker right now, so maybe leapfrogged them...Avs slightly weaker minus Kadri and probable downgrade in goal, but still an obvious powerhouse and fav. Canes and Bolts remain elite. But would you not put Flames lineup on paper against nearly anyone...