Lets Talk About Mr. Backlund

[CsInMyBlood]

I'll start out this post claiming myself to be a fan of Mikael Backlund. I'll make no bones about it.

I've read a lot of bashing on him of late, people claiming he should be traded, people claiming Granlund makes him expendable, people claiming he isn't good. I watch every game, I just don't get these sentiments. My eyes tell me he is playing hard, smart effective hockey. Skates miles every night. Relentless and battles hard for every puck. Never takes a shift off. So I decided to dig up some stats from this season to see what they tell me.

I'm going with cold hard stats. I know how people love to shoot down advanced stats, so i'll leave them alone for now. If one of our advanced stats loving guys wants to weigh into this thread, and tell us more about Backlund so be it.

Offensive stats:

At the half way point he has 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 pts, +1 in 41 games.

He has 6 points in his last 10 games. He has 9 points in his last 15 games.

That's good for 7th place overall on the Flames, 4th among the forwards in points.

Projects to a 36 point season.

He is 3rd among Flames forwards in shots for.

11th overall in PP total ice time. 12th overall in PP TOI/per game.

Tied for 4th overall on the Flames in power play points with Monahan, Hamilton, Brodie and Hudler with 5 points. The leaders are Gaudreau (9), Wideman (8), Gio (6).

Defensive stats:

4th on the team in +/-. One of only four Flames players with a positive rating. Brodie (+6), Gaudreau (+5), Frolik (+2), Backlund (+1).

Leads the Flames in takeaways with 26.

Leads the Flames forwards in shots blocked with 31.

55.9 face off winning % in the defensive zone.

By far our best penalty killer.

Backlund: SH total ice time: 58:24. 5 PPGA.(PP Goals Against) GA60 = 5.14 (GA60 = PP Goals scored against team while player is on the ice per 60 minutes of ice time)

Frolik: SH total ice: 48.50. 6 PPGA. GA60 = 7.37
Stajan: SH total ice: 61.54. 10 PPGA. GA60 = 9.69
Jooris: SH total ice: 33.50. 6 PPGA. GA60 = 10.64
Monahan: SH total ice: 34.07. 7 PPGA. GA60 = 12.31

As you can see Backlund is by far our best penalty killer. As far as the GA60 stat goes, Backlund is just ahead of Patrice Bergeron who sports a 5.29. Bergeron has won the Selke trophy for best defensive forward in the league 3 of the last 4 years which tells you just how valuable Backlund is on the PK to the Flames.

I think Backlund is very underrated by many Flames fans.

What do you think about Mr. Backlund?

[heep223]

Some interesting analysis. What does Granlund's GA60 look like?

[keenan87]

I think a better poll would be whether or not we should keep Backlund as the third line center or Stajan (I think both are good options). I just don't like the fact the Flames are paying the bottom two centers so much money. I think if we find a taker, we should trade Stajan in the off-season. Then we can have a guy like Arnold come up next year to play on the fourth line.

I think next season, we should try to go with Monahan-Bennett-Backlund-Arnold as our centers. Backlund has the experience and quite frankly, Monahan will be in his fourth season by then as well (I believe Arnold is also very good at faceoffs). Gotta say though, it would suck to lose Stajan because he seems like a great guy and someone who everyone seems to love in the locker-room.

[Karl]

Couldn't resist, haha.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Backlund is a 3rd line center forced to play on the 2nd line. The minute Bennett can take over that position and Backlund is forced into a lesser role, the better. He's not a bad player by any stretch, just playing out of position. And I think that's where the frustration can lay with him, when people don't recognize that.

[Trojan97]

Rather than comparing Backlund amongst his teammates, i'd rather see his numbers and effectiveness compared to the 3rd line C's of the leagues better teams. I don't think many would argue that he's just fine as a 3rd line centre on a fringe playoff team or worse. Personally, I no longer believe he is a guy who can play a role on a team that consistantly goes 2-3 rounds deep and has alot of regular season succees. Theres just not enough there every night and I don't buy that it's simply a result of him being under-appreciated or fans not watching close enough.

[Jason14h]

Backlund is a 3rd line center forced to play on the 2nd line.

The other issue though is he isn't really suited or a good #3 center.

He isn't big, doesn't kill penalties well, isn't good in the faceoff dot. He can't really shut down the other teams top centers.

The is nothing wrong with Backlund. The problem is he does everything pretty good, and nothing exceptional.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The other issue though is he isn't really suited or a good #3 center.

He isn't big, doesn't kill penalties well, isn't good in the faceoff dot. He can't really shut down the other teams top centers.

The is nothing wrong with Backlund. The problem is he does everything pretty good, and nothing exceptional.

Really that isn't at all true.

According to stats he kills penalties really well, his defensive zone faceoffs are very strong, and he has been decent in a shutdown role.

Really the issue is that everyone hoped Backlund would be a top 6 center that would produce points for us, and he isn't that at all.

It's also hard to measure defensive effectiveness, and since he isn't big, strong, and physical people think that he can't be an effective defensive center-man, even though most stats would say that isn't true.

His overall FO% does need work, and he could still use a little more strength but you could do a lot worse as a 3rd line center.

Personally I have no issue with Stajan/Backlund sharing duties as our shut down centers. Hopefully in the long term somebody like Arnold or Jankowski can replace one of them, but they aren't there yet.

[keenan87]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The other issue though is he isn't really suited or a good #3 center.

He isn't big, doesn't kill penalties well, isn't good in the faceoff dot. He can't really shut down the other teams top centers.

The is nothing wrong with Backlund. The problem is he does everything pretty good, and nothing exceptional.

Did you even read the OP? He defended his point and I agree with him. What is your rebuttal to say that he doesn't kill penalties well? I do agree that he needs to get better overall on faceoffs though.

[mile]

I was a little disappointed by Backlund last season and with his start this season, but his play over the last 10-15 games reminds me of the way he played a couple of seasons ago when the trade rumours were happening and played himself out of 4th line duty as he won the coach's trust back. He's holding on to the puck longer and making more plays with it. The most frustrating thing about him is that he hasn't put it together offensively for a full season - he didn't take that next step last year after putting up career highs the year before.

I'm not yet convinced that Granlund makes him expendable. Especially with his shot, Granlund might be better suited as a winger.

[SuperMatt18]

Also think it is good to have some type of contract comparables for guys in the similar age range as well.

Bjudstad $4.10 0.43 PPG
Henrique $4.00 0.70 PPG
Silferberg $3.750 0.2 PPG (wonder if he would be available at a cut rate)
A. Lee $3.750 0.45 PPG
Vermette $3.750 0.51 PPG
Berglund $3.750 0.35 PPG (last season stats)

Backlund $3.575 0.44 PPG

Eller $3.50 0.30 PPG
Turris $3.50 0.7 PPG
Bailey $3.30 0.46 PPG

Really outside of Henrique and Turris (both of whom are likely out-performing their contracts) his offensive production matches up.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

So ok, Backlund is our best penalty killer, but that's not saying much. It ranks 30th in the NHL by a fair margin. I'm more interested in why everyone else has been so terrible, and then maybe how Backlund compares to the rest of the league with similar SH minutes.

He doesn't create enough offense for my liking. He has very limited abilities in the offensive zone, and he can't create a vigorous enough forecheck. Quite frankly, he also lacks tenacity when an opportunity presents itself in the offensive zone, which is a major reason why he isn't capitalizing more and putting up points.

Defensively he's good positionally, and he does create a good amount of turnovers in the neutral zone, but he's outmatched physically again down low in his own zone, and has trouble with battles in front of the net. If you're going to be a bottom 6 center, you better be able to win the down low game in your own end.

He's one of those guys that puts up good advanced stats, and he'll not kill you over the course of a season, but he isn't really a difference-maker when you need him to be. At least guys like Stajan and Jones can step up their games occasionally in crunch time. It's honestly been pretty rare for Backlund to do it, and he has much more capability than those two.

It's why I would like to see him moved once we have an adequate replacement. I'm thinking Jankowski or Bill Arnold will take that spot eventually. If not, an UFA with better size and face-off prowess will do just fine in that 3rd line role.

[Erick Estrada]

Mikael Backlund is the Flames version of Ales Hemsky. The team had high hopes when they drafted him and it never worked out yet they continued to give him more opportunity than pretty well any player on the roster to succeed and hung on to him long after it was obvious that it was never going to work out.

[Jason14h]

Did you even read the OP? He defended his point and I agree with him. What is your rebuttal to say that he doesn't kill penalties well? I do agree that he needs to get better overall on faceoffs though.

We are last in the league in penalty killing....Comparing him to our other pathetic killers and one cherry picked player doesn't mean he's a good PKer.

Again, i said he does everything pretty good, and nothing exceptional. Do you think he is an exceptional PKer?

[GranteedEV]

Backlund is sort of this era's Matthew Lombardi. People always want more and fail to see what he does bring is a huge part of this team's success in subtle ways and we'd be worse off without him. He's been a plus player three straight years while getting some of the toughest deployment in the entire league. That means he's coming out of the majority of matchups on the winning side. Does he struggle against certain individuals (Namely, Ryan Getzlaf)? Sure. Good teams are adaptable, they don't have one player for every matchup.

His contract is also perfect for what he brings.

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We are last in the league in penalty killing....Comparing him to our other pathetic killers and one cherry picked player doesn't mean he's a good PKer.

2013-16 4v5 Ranking (200 SH Minutes Played, Forwards)

GA60 57th best of 141
GA60RelTM 34th best of 141
FA60 26th best of 141 (A more useful stat, since it's less goaltender-dependant and only measures how many unblocked shot attempts the opposition is getting through to either hit or miss the net, if the team isn't even getting shots through then you're doing a great job killing penalties)
FA60RelTM 24th best of 141

So, over the last three seasons, It's safe to say Backlund is in the upper ~25% of better penalty killers in the league as far as forwards getting significant PP ice time go.

Again, i said he does everything pretty good, and nothing exceptional. Do you think he is an exceptional PKer?

Yes.

[N-E-B]

Some nights he looks great, other nights he drives me nuts. That's Backlund in a nut shell for me.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Not a fan. He's just never lived up to his potential. Probably a guy that we could use in a hockey trade and improve the team at a position of weakness.

[MoreDrank]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

Some nights he looks great, other nights he drives me nuts. That's Backlund in a nut shell for me.

Same could be said for the Flames on the whole this season.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

He hasn't lived up to the hype but that's because the hype was that he'd be Iginlas dynamic Swedish centre and the saviour of the franchise along with Sven. He is good at what he does in my opinion. His game has improved a lot in the past few seasons. He is a great 3rd line centre on a good team (which we are not right now ).

Also he's earning 3.7 million. I have no problem with Backlund right now, as long as he continues improving, slowly but surely. I don't think the problem is number 11. I think we just lack depth scoring over all and our roster is paying a lot of money to defencemen and wingers who aren't producing or we don't/won't need. We lack an NHL starter and we have a lot of young players learning the game.

Almost none of that is Mikaels fault. He is the least of my worries and I'm sure Brad isn't up there thinking about Backlund. Let's talk about Hudler

[Vinny01]

I think Backlund should be traded but that is because I think he has value. One thing I hope happens soon is Bennett transitioning to centre as I feel he is the future number 1 on this team.

Brian Butke decided to give Matt Stajan a 4 year deal in year 1 of the rebuild. Stajan is a solid veteran centre and has the ability to play the 3rd or 4th line role. Backlund is also a solid 3rd line centre that shows flashes of top 6 but typically leaves you wanting more.

Ultimately the Flames are starting to have the problem of too much money in the bottom 6. Where does Frolik fit long term? 2nd liner or 3rd liner? He is a solid player but also our highest paid forward right now. Bouma is making over $2M and is bottom 6.

If Backlund can help get this team a legit top 6 winger I hope it happens. With Monahan, Bennett, Stajan, and Granlund we have 4 centers. Arnold and Jankowski are coming as well