31 Thoughts Podcast: Brad Treliving

[SuperMatt18]

Brad Treliving was with Elliotte on the 31 Thoughts podcast today.

Touches on the Bill Peters incident, Chris Snow, and how this team uses advanced analytics.

https://podcast.sportsnet.ca/31-thoughts/

[stang]

Was a very good interview.

[Toonage]

The analytics talk was good. I also wonder who had "the 8"

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by Toonage

The analytics talk was good. I also wonder who had "the 8"

Probably James Neal

[SuperMatt18]

Could really be anyone.

My guess is the 101 is one of Gaudreau or Giordano, just since they are in and around it so much.

Really the 8 could be anyone. Hell even Gaudreau has probably had some games this year where he's been so bad it wouldn't surprise me.

Would love to have access to that data so bad.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I tell ya, there was a quote from Snow that stopped me dead in my tracks (via Treliving):

Re: advanced stats-"If you use only what's in the public domain, it would be like going to watch a game and turning the lights out for 50 seconds of every minute. You're only getting an 8-10 second look at what happens in the game."

This, to me, explains why some people are still hell bent against advanced stats that are used in fan discourse, and also why advanced stats that teams are using tell them so much more than we could ever know. I feel confident knowing that they are aware of the flaws of the information used by all of us, and that they have a better way of doing this process that seems to be essential in determining player value in the modern NHL.

I guess I'll just say that advanced stats tell part of the story, but still not the whole story. It's definitely more valuable than just looking at the counting stats, but it isn't perfect. Take it for what it is, but don't base every thought on just those numbers.

His discussion of how Derek Ryan contributes to the game really made me believe that their system is a good system. All year long I look at the little things that Ryan does in a game and I say to myself, "wow, he just did so much on that shift, but none of it ends up on a score sheet." Well, apparently it does within the Calgary value system. That's good news to me.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Could really be anyone.

My guess is the 101 is one of Gaudreau or Giordano, just since they are in and around it so much.

Really the 8 could be anyone. Hell even Gaudreau has probably had some games this year where he's been so bad it wouldn't surprise me.

Would love to have access to that data so bad.

101? Elias Lindholm. In Tree speak, looking at how a player touches the game, is there anyone that touches all parts of the game like he does? I feel so dirty posting that.

[wooohooo]

I am curious as to how these analytics are measured. So much happens in just one shift - is the process automated? I'm sure this could be extended to other teams and see who the most 'productive' players are... similar to that baseball movie

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I tell ya, there was a quote from Snow that stopped me dead in my tracks (via Treliving):

Re: advanced stats-"If you use only what's in the public domain, it would be like going to watch a game and turning the lights out for 50 seconds of every minute. You're only getting an 8-10 second look at what happens in the game."

This, to me, explains why some people are still hell bent against advanced stats that are used in fan discourse, and also why advanced stats that teams are using tell them so much more than we could ever know. I feel confident knowing that they are aware of the flaws of the information used by all of us, and that they have a better way of doing this process that seems to be essential in determining player value in the modern NHL.

I guess I'll just say that advanced stats tell part of the story, but still not the whole story. It's definitely more valuable than just looking at the counting stats, but it isn't perfect. Take it for what it is, but don't base every thought on just those numbers.

His discussion of how Derek Ryan contributes to the game really made me believe that their system is a good system. All year long I look at the little things that Ryan does in a game and I say to myself, "wow, he just did so much on that shift, but none of it ends up on a score sheet." Well, apparently it does within the Calgary value system. That's good news to me.

I always assumed as much. The problem with stats we see is that they have no context. #### happens that can't be fully explained by a 0 or 1. Someone has to make a subjective assessment on what happened to turn it into a 0.8.

To do that requires a massive amount of man power that public sites just don't have access too

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I tell ya, there was a quote from Snow that stopped me dead in my tracks (via Treliving):

Re: advanced stats-"If you use only what's in the public domain, it would be like going to watch a game and turning the lights out for 50 seconds of every minute. You're only getting an 8-10 second look at what happens in the game."

This, to me, explains why some people are still hell bent against advanced stats that are used in fan discourse, and also why advanced stats that teams are using tell them so much more than we could ever know. I feel confident knowing that they are aware of the flaws of the information used by all of us, and that they have a better way of doing this process that seems to be essential in determining player value in the modern NHL.

I guess I'll just say that advanced stats tell part of the story, but still not the whole story. It's definitely more valuable than just looking at the counting stats, but it isn't perfect. Take it for what it is, but don't base every thought on just those numbers.

His discussion of how Derek Ryan contributes to the game really made me believe that their system is a good system. All year long I look at the little things that Ryan does in a game and I say to myself, "wow, he just did so much on that shift, but none of it ends up on a score sheet." Well, apparently it does within the Calgary value system. That's good news to me.

I would say that NHL teams in general depending on the team have only started to get past what the fans are doing analytics wise in the past 2-3 seasons.

A lot of the current analytics guys in the NHL are guys that were fans with sites that got bought out by NHL teams. Five years ago if an NHL team had an Analytics "Department" it was one guy with a laptop.

That is clearly changing in a big way. He are seeing more and more analytic based GM hires.

Clearly the proponents of advanced stats were barking up the right tree and have won the day.

I can understand fans being critical of individual advanced stats, and take issue with some of the conclusions, but I saw a lot of fans that completely rejected hockey analytics as a whole and history has shown those fans were flat out wrong.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I would say that NHL teams in general depending on the team have only started to get past what the fans are doing analytics wise in the past 2-3 seasons.

A lot of the current analytics guys in the NHL are guys that were fans with sites that got bought out by NHL teams. Five years ago if an NHL team had an Analytics "Department" it was one guy with a laptop.

That is clearly changing in a big way. He are seeing more and more analytic based GM hires.

Clearly the proponents of advanced stats were barking up the right tree and have won the day.

I can understand fans being critical of individual advanced stats, and take issue with some of the conclusions, but I saw a lot of fans that completely rejected hockey analytics as a whole and history has shown those fans were flat out wrong.

Never seen people complaining about the stats themselves. It always the conclusions that people derive from them that's the issue.

And as Brad said, the level of analytics that we have access to are borderline useless.

[Passe La Puck]

Easy for him to make that claim as he doesn’t have to back it up. They didn’t looked at their super advanced stats before any free agent signings? What’s one example of a move they made that the fans were totally wrong about hating and it turned out the flames really knew their stuff?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Passe La Puck

Easy for him to make that claim as he doesn’t have to back it up. They didn’t looked at their super advanced stats before any free agent signings? What’s one example of a move they made that the fans were totally wrong about hating and it turned out the flames really knew their stuff?

I would imagine that the Flames in house stats are you know, counted and calculated in house. I don't think that they watch and count stats for 1,230 games. I would be surprised if they did that for players for opposing teams even in the 82 games that they for sure make stats for.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by DJones

Never seen people complaining about the stats themselves. It always the conclusions that people derive from them that's the issue.

And as Brad said, the level of analytics that we have access to are borderline useless.

Really? I've seen tonnes of people over the years completely dismiss advanced stats.

The old "Hockey isn't baseball" argument was trotted out early and often.

And there have been tonnes of useful stats that fans have access too that have already changed the game.

Hockey analytics guys have forever concluded that it was better to pull your goalie when down earlier rather than later.

When analytics started to catch on it suddenly became a trend for coaches at the NHL level and the average time has continued to get earlier and earlier.

Despite this one being pretty obvious, it didn't really start to catch on until about 2014/15.

NHL teams aren't as far along as they claim IMO, and they are still just scratching the surface.

They were talking about real time tracking of the players and the puck this season, and I haven't heard boo about it in months. This is something that could have been implemented years ago if there was a will.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by DJones

Never seen people complaining about the stats themselves. It always the conclusions that people derive from them that's the issue.

And as Brad said, the level of analytics that we have access to are borderline useless.

I won't say useless, just no where near the level the clubs are doing it. Stats has always been about the number of events. When you have 4000 events vs 80 then, yeah, one will tell you a lot more and the methodology repeatable. I think what fans of the game have been able to cobble together points them in the right direction.

[Caged Great]

That has been the thing I've harped on with analytics is that most of what's available gives you a bit of info, but not a lot in terms of the context. That's why I make most of my judgments on things based on what I see instead. I am glad that the Flames have access to additional things that hopefully give that context that is needed and very necessary.

Probably a good reason why each of Tre's picks in round 1-3 have turned into NHLers save Parsons and last years picks.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Passe La Puck

Easy for him to make that claim as he doesn’t have to back it up. They didn’t looked at their super advanced stats before any free agent signings? What’s one example of a move they made that the fans were totally wrong about hating and it turned out the flames really knew their stuff?

I have two easy examples.

Derek Ryan signing. Most people saw him as a 4th line place holder center. A lot of people were concerned that he was only signed because Bill Peters had a soft spot for him. Turns out he was a smart player all over the ice and their analytics found him and got him for a very good value contract.

Trading Dougie Hamilton effectively for Lindholm. A lot of people thought we lost that trade badly right off the bat, only looking at Lindholm's counting stats. Then we get to see Lindholm on the ice and realize how complete of a player he is. He then goes on to fulfill his offensive potential going off last year and continues scoring goals this year despite not having a lot of help. Hamilton gets a lot of counting stats, but doesn't impact the game positively outside of those. Lindholm is overall a better player to help you win games.

I'm sure there are more, but it seems like they've looked for guys that impact the game more than what the raw data can tell you. It also shapes the guys they pick at the draft as well. It's a trend that I think is smart, but it's hard to know if it's the right analytic strategy to form a winning team. Time will tell I guess.

[CaptainYooh]

I've been to an event where Burke spoke 2 years ago. He said that value of hockey analytics is not in the performance stats alone. His words: "a good player on a ####ty team will have ####ty stats; a bad player on a good team will have good stats." He went further on to say that dismissing modern hockey analytics is inexcusable. The value of it for staff and players comes from statistically repetitive details that can be analyzed, summarized and presented to both for the follow-up action (corrective or reaffirming). Examples are: success of a certain specific face-off movement for a specific player, player's shooting success percentage from a specific position on ice, patterns in players' performance after various traveling/resting/training events etc. That's how deep and microscopic they go. The variety of stats available today is enormous.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Yeah, but we've seen guys like Mudcrutch and the BehindTheNet guys get hired by NHL teams, so we have a good idea that at least as of a few years ago, they werent really that far ahead of the blogosphere.

[activeStick]

I know there are many who aren't fans of his and want Treliving gone due to lack of success from a record perspective but I really like Brad as our GM. Time and time again when you listen to him in interviews like these, he's clearly very thoughtful, open minded to new ideas and concepts and humble (in how he deflects perceived successes to others and also in how he acknowledges his own short comings or missteps). Through my experience, these are all essential qualities I've seen in people I've worked closely with and watched as they grew in their own careers, who have eventually gone on to be great leaders of their own teams.