Flames Metrics (5 Game Segments)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

They haven't found a way to create offence as a group.

Too few transition players on the team is killing them.

They have Andersson, Dube and Backlund.

Lindholm, Huberdeau, Toffoli, aren't great at taking the puck up the ice. Guys like Kadri and Mangiapane do it, but as solo acts.

The transition is dead.

It could turn around. It might not.

The transition game has struggled. No question.

But I am not prepared to say they have no one that can provide it. I think they are just struggling with confidence.

It has been astounding how many passes they are making into the other player's feet. And when they hit the stick, the recipient is fumbling it. They are passing it around like it's a hot potato. It is reminiscent of the Gulutzan and Ward eras. And fans were saying those teams had no talent either. But it isn't a lack of talent, it's a lack of confidence, IMO.

[FBI]

This is why I have hope for Huberdeau with Kadri. Huby finally has someone to carry it up the ice like Bennett or Duclair. Then Huby can use his passing vision.

[Classic_Sniper]

Not big into advanced stats, so do the numbers suggest that this team just funnels a ton of low percentage shots on net?

If that's the case, that matches the eye test as well. This team is an opposition goaltender's dream. If I'm playing the Flames, I'm salivating at the chance to boost my sv%. Heck, too bad Markstrom can't play against the Flames, a couple 40 save shutouts would certainly push his .897 sv% into respectability.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Not big into advanced stats, so do the numbers suggest that this team just funnels a ton of low percentage shots on net?

Probably true but I wouldn't pull to many conclusions based on stats, especially a small slump like this lately could be just a symptom of guys being banged up / sick. Also last time looked at stats (expected goals) the Panthers were supposed to be scoring like a gazillion goals more and they just lack the kind of moxy they had last year to do it. And that kind of confidence just can't be measured.

So, I see very little value with these charts except maybe as some additional info.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Not big into advanced stats, so do the numbers suggest that this team just funnels a ton of low percentage shots on net?

If that's the case, that matches the eye test as well. This team is an opposition goaltender's dream. If I'm playing the Flames, I'm salivating at the chance to boost my sv%. Heck, too bad Markstrom can't play against the Flames, a couple 40 save shutouts would certainly push his .897 sv% into respectability.

There is lots of good news and bad news in the summaries.

For most of the season they've been a team that sits at top 10 levels in what they give up. Early they didn't have the goaltending to get rewarded.

All season they've been a team that doesn't generate enough by way of high danger and scoring chances.

But ... they have a high enough shot volume to get their xGF% to the top ten level as well.

St. Louis game was the same. Out shoot the opposition greatly, but come up short on the high danger splits and lose the game.

Last year Sutter had them as a 3rd overall scoring chance team (31.17/60) and a 11th overall high danger team (11.84/60).

This year they are 21st in scoring chances (27.66/60) and 22nd in high danger (10.84/60)

So down about 10-12% ...

To me it's a change in the roster away from transition creating less zone time, and less chance around home plate.

[Rick M.]

They really miss Kylington on the transition.

[Bingo]

Hey look a bump with actual information!

Updated 5 Game Segment Charts



Notes:

- strength of schedule on display with back to back games against the Sharks pushing the offensive numbers up.
- Huge jump in chances for / 60
- Still giving up too much
- Big jumps in shot volume splits and expected goal splits

Overall if you play tougher teams you're going to generate less and give up more, so this is honestly part of the expected adjustment.

[Bingo]

Updated again ...

Huge boost to all the categories.

Chances against down
Chances for up
xGF% way up

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Updated again ...

Huge boost to all the categories.

Chances against down
Chances for up
xGF% way up

Boy this goes against everything I read in the post game thread!

Thanks for showing stats all the time. It's appreciated.

[Enoch Root]

This matches what they've looked like on the ice - much better team than we saw in November.

It's coming, they just need a catalyst to spark their confidence offensively

[malcolmk14]

I like what I'm seeing lately. I think the West comes down to Vegas, Calgary or Colorado. Crazy to think that they could all be on the same side of the bracket.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Updated again ...

Huge boost to all the categories.

Chances against down
Chances for up
xGF% way up

As I've mentioned, your Game Stories are a needed reprieve after a loss as a good portion of posters go off the deep end making the PGT unreadable. But these stats are matching to what I've seen in the games where the Flames have looked a lot better now for a month or so.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This matches what they've looked like on the ice - much better team than we saw in November.

It's coming, they just need a catalyst to spark their confidence offensively

Getting the PP up to at least league average would go a long way for this team. The rest of the game is doing the job, but the lack of a key tally with the man advantage has really been ailing this group in so many of its 1 goal games.

All in all special teams has been shockingly consistent through the first half, but the trouble is while the PK is doing the job, the PP is well below what you'd expect.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Getting the PP up to at least league average would go a long way for this team. The rest of the game is doing the job, but the lack of a key tally with the man advantage has really been ailing this group in so many of its 1 goal games.

All in all special teams has been shockingly consistent through the first half, but the trouble is while the PK is doing the job, the PP is well below what you'd expect.

The Flames have scored 24 Powerplay goals this season and 5 Short Handed goals for a total of 29 goals for on the special teams

They have allowed 27 PP goals and 2 SHG this year for a total of 29 goals against on special teams

Exactly even.

This is the biggest area we need to improve. Score more PP goals AND take less penalties.

[Bingo]

Update ...

Shows the completion of the 35-40 five game segment on a good foot.

And how ugly the Chicago game was in what they gave up compared to their last ten.

[Northendzone]

bingo, i have to tip my hat to you for taking some time to summarize this information and it is sure some food for thought, and does provide some room for optimism.

but to me at the end of the day, i look at the top teams in the west, and think, if the flames played this team in round one, what are their chances of winning 4 out of 7 games and based on the games to date, I think maybe minnesota and seattle might be the only teams where i think the flames might have a chance.

i also don't think the flames could beat the oilers in a series as the flames have no answer for 97

but, what do i know. i have been wrong about a lot of hockey related things in my life

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

bingo, i have to tip my hat to you for taking some time to summarize this information and it is sure some food for thought, and does provide some room for optimism.

but to me at the end of the day, i look at the top teams in the west, and think, if the flames played this team in round one, what are their chances of winning 4 out of 7 games and based on the games to date, I think maybe minnesota and seattle might be the only teams where i think the flames might have a chance.

i also don't think the flames could beat the oilers in a series as the flames have no answer for 97

but, what do i know. i have been wrong about a lot of hockey related things in my life

Can't disagree with you.

They haven't gotten it done. They have some underlying numbers that suggest they're turning the ship, but actual results are needed to move the needle in the standings or optimism.

I continue to have a fear that they lack the type of offensive skill needed to tip the scales in the '23 NHL.

[Erick Estrada]

The chances against is weird to me. For the most part the HDCA has mirrored the SCA which makes sense but at the 36-40 mark SC finally stabilized meaning they were playing consistent, solid defensive hockey. Yet at the same time HDCA crept up into bad territory. It seems the momentary breakdowns are killing them. I don't want to make work for you but is there a certain pairing or forward group of late that's making the mental mistakes or is it the team in general?

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Can't disagree with you.

They haven't gotten it done. They have some underlying numbers that suggest they're turning the ship, but actual results are needed to move the needle in the standings or optimism.

I continue to have a fear that they lack the type of offensive skill needed to tip the scales in the '23 NHL.

Thanks for putting together Bingo.

Some room for optimism. As for the 7-game series, well its still not statistically significant as a sample set, and the playoffs sadly are a different game. We beat Dallas before and they're leading the pack in the west. Flames can still beat anybody as long as Sutter is our coach.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The chances against is weird to me. For the most part the HDCA has mirrored the SCA which makes sense but at the 36-40 mark SC finally stabilized meaning they were playing consistent, solid defensive hockey. Yet at the same time HDCA crept up into bad territory. It seems the momentary breakdowns are killing them. I don't want to make work for you but is there a certain pairing or forward group of late that's making the mental mistakes or is it the team in general?

Not sure I follow.

It still see HDCA mirroring SCA in games 36-40. They drop below both the top ten line in both cases.

In those 5 games the bulk of the damage was done in the 3-2 win over the Kraken where they gave up 15 five on five (and generated 14). The rest of the set had single digits against.

In the six games since Xmas the Zadorov/Stone pairing is at 13.64 HDCA/60, the other two pairings are closer to 10.0 and well below the average team per 60 of 11.8

xGA60 for the third pair was 3.16 in the six games, other two pairings closer to 2.0