07-31-2022, 12:22 PM
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#161
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoho
Unfortunately corperate debt is independent of labour shortages.
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A lot of corporations are also putting up record profits. Inflation means many businesses' profit margins are way up.
It'll be small businesses that get squeezed out. The big guys aren't laying anyone off.
https://nupge.ca/content/canadian-co...-record-levels
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08-04-2022, 06:20 AM
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#162
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: North America
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08-04-2022, 06:59 AM
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#163
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?
I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
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08-04-2022, 07:19 AM
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#164
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Franchise Player
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I'm seeing a lot of companies still hiring, and still finding it exceedingly difficult.
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08-04-2022, 09:31 AM
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#165
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary - Centre West
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
But why are we embedding his tweets here?
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If he didn't have the [tweet] embed feature to foist upon us random useless tweets, he'd never post.
... can we remove the [tweet] embed feature?
__________________
-James
GO FLAMES GO.
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08-04-2022, 09:38 AM
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#166
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Ctown
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My company announced a hiring freeze this week. Tech industry based out of San Francisco. A lot of tech companies are either freezing hiring, or laying off at the moment.
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08-04-2022, 09:48 AM
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#167
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Franchise Player
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22k workers have been laid off in the U.S. tech industry in recent weeks.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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08-04-2022, 09:49 AM
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#168
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?
I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
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He's a realtor from Vancouver, who's been preaching on YouTube about housing crashes for years.
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08-04-2022, 09:52 AM
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#169
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alberta
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Shopify just had a pretty large layoff, and Jobber had a layoff round a few weeks ago.
It seems like we're on the cusp of a pushback to the great resignation.
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08-04-2022, 09:57 AM
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#170
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monahammer
Shopify just had a pretty large layoff, and Jobber had a layoff round a few weeks ago.
It seems like we're on the cusp of a pushback to the great resignation.
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I think the question is if it extends beyond tech. Tech companies have taken a giant hit from their inflated valuations.
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08-04-2022, 09:58 AM
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#171
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
He's a realtor from Vancouver, who's been preaching on YouTube about housing crashes for years.
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He'll be right eventually!
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08-04-2022, 10:05 AM
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#172
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Memento Mori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Who the heck is Steve Saretsky?
I mean assuming he's saying we are going into a recession - yes he's probably right. But why are we embedding his tweets here?
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The word recession has a real meaning - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
So the USA is/was in a recession.
__________________
If you don't pass this sig to ten of your friends, you will become an Oilers fan.
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08-04-2022, 10:19 AM
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#173
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shazam
The word recession has a real meaning - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
So the USA is/was in a recession.
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Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.
What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:
1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%
So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
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08-04-2022, 10:43 AM
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#174
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Ate 100 Treadmills
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
He'll be right eventually!
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I'm not convinced he will. There's not enough housing stock and too many people who have cash not tied to the economy.
They'll always be adjustments, but housing in certain areas will never be truly affordable.
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08-04-2022, 10:48 AM
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#175
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
I'm not convinced he will. There's not enough housing stock and too many people who have cash not tied to the economy.
They'll always be adjustments, but housing in certain areas will never be truly affordable.
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Unless the big one(earthquake) hits, which I am conveniently forecasting to happen sometime in the future.
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08-04-2022, 12:23 PM
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#176
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Hyperbole Chamber
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
Unless the big one(earthquake) hits, which I am conveniently forecasting to happen sometime in the future.
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You'll be right eventually!
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08-05-2022, 02:37 AM
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#177
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.
What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:
1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%
So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
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The 10-2 yield curve is inverted by 38 bps in the US. That, combined with the Fed steeply raising rates and the Treasury running a much more balanced (==less stimulative) fiscal position makes avoiding a recession pretty unlikely.
Really the most likely way the US avoids an "official" recession is by political power leaning on the NBER to avoid declaring one. More realistically, they will just wait to declare until their declaration is irrelevant - a course of action which is quite common for the group. NBER recession definitions are interesting in retrospect for historical purposes, but not especially useful as a definition in the moment.
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08-05-2022, 06:59 AM
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#178
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.
What hasn't happened in US history is a recession without an uptick in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the first 6 months of each recession:
1949: 4% -> 6.2%
1953: 2.7% -> 5.9%
1957: 4.4% -> 7.4%
1960: 5.1% -> 6.6%
1970: 3.5% -> 5.0%
1974: 5.1% -> 7.4%
1980: 6.0% -> 7.8%
1982: 7.9% -> 9.8%
1990: 5.2% -> 6.8%
2001: 4.3% -> 5.5%
2008: 5% -> 6.8%
2020: 4.4% -> 7.9%
So far in the first 2 quarters of 2022 unemployment has dropped from 4% to 3.6%. So while chances are the US will enter a recession (or may have started to already), if unemployment somehow stays low and GDP recovers in Q3, this will have never been considered a recession.
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Another good jobs report for the US this month. Unemployment down to 3.5% - matching its 50 year low.
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08-05-2022, 09:32 AM
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#180
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Memento Mori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Not in the US. Almost half of the US's post WWII recessions haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And they've gone through 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before without it being considered a recession.
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I am telling you the literal definition of a recession. Do with it what you want.
__________________
If you don't pass this sig to ten of your friends, you will become an Oilers fan.
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