*Updated* Ongoing Bank of Canada Benchmark Rate Announcements

[Slava]

Also, for Albertans, WTI dropping below $90 means that the gas tax relief is gone. It dipped below, and is currently ~$92...so something to watch.

[Azure]

I was thinking the other day, how much all this has to do with Crypto & NFT investments?

It was well talked about during all the COVID handouts, lots of guys sunk that straight into one of those things and expecting 20%+ returns.

I wonder how many real dollars over the past 2-3 years went into that side, and now its lost a ton of value.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Azure

Other question, if things slow down quick, and inflation drops back in 3 months to more reasonable levels, are the interest rates lowered? We are at 2008 levels, and at some point you'd think they want to get out of the recession ASAP.

One strategist I follow says there is a 100% chance of a rate decrease in 2023 priced in.

This latest increase or maybe one more in September should be the end of the tightening.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Corporate debt will be the death blow. Expect mass layoffs to move in step.

Really? Aren't most industries still facing labor shortages? I know all the ones I deal with are.

Edit: The US is adding lots of jobs:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs...ry?id=86306953

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Ocean freight costs from Asia to North America have dropped considerably in the past 4-5 weeks or so.

OMG, I so hope you're right. I'll have a shipment ready to leave Shanghai in like two or three weeks. Would love to have a reasonable price...I've been super worried about the cost.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Slava

Also, for Albertans, WTI dropping below $90 means that the gas tax relief is gone. It dipped below, and is currently ~$92...so something to watch.

Good point Slava, that would equate to an immediate ~ $0.13/l increase at the pump.

Also have begun to see our clients (E&P's) begin to make noise about scaling back drilling plans already and they are pushing back harder on our (service industry) price increases (which still have barely been enough to cover cost increases). Might put some strain on the service industry which is just beginning to recover from the 8 year downturn. Flip side is it might reduce the strain on manpower due to high activity levels we are seeing right now.

[The Fonz]

Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.75%, matching June's historic move
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feder...140540265.html

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 0.75% as the central bank attempts to avoid a deep recession.

The decision to move by 0.75% matched the magnitude of the Fed’s last move in June, which was its largest single-meeting rate increase since 1994. Wednesday's decision was unanimously agreed upon by voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Fed has now moved in four consecutive meetings to increase borrowing costs in America, extending its effort to dampen household and business spending. The goal: to wrangle inflation running at rates unseen since the early 1980s.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Azure

I was thinking the other day, how much all this has to do with Crypto & NFT investments?

It was well talked about during all the COVID handouts, lots of guys sunk that straight into one of those things and expecting 20%+ returns.

I wonder how many real dollars over the past 2-3 years went into that side, and now its lost a ton of value.

200 billion worth of 'value'

It for sure plays a roll.

[dino7c]

Anyone wanna buy my house in 3 years when my 1.39% mortgage is up for renewal

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

200 billion worth of 'value'

It for sure plays a roll.

And the entire tech market down 30% since January

[Locke]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Anyone wanna buy my house in 3 years when my 1.39% mortgage is up for renewal

Oh you're not going to be alone on that one.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Anyone wanna buy my house in 3 years when my 1.39% mortgage is up for renewal

Who knows where things will be in 3 years. Also, historically many banks offered mortgage rates below prime....says the guy who's renewal is up in 4 years

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Slava

Also, for Albertans, WTI dropping below $90 means that the gas tax relief is gone. It dipped below, and is currently ~$92...so something to watch.

They've updated it so that the tax holiday goes to at least September 30 and when they do start to collect taxes, it will be tiered based on several potential WTI price levels.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Locke

Oh you're not going to be alone on that one.

Aren’t stress tests done at 5% minimum? So we should be able to sustain 3-4% increases before things get ugly.

Not that spending 33% of pretax on a house leaves you with much money.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Corporate debt will be the death blow. Expect mass layoffs to move in step.

That's just fear mongering. Healthy corporations with legitimate cash flow are never going this route due to a modest increase in rates.

It's just as likely there is a rate decrease by the end of Q1 or into Q2 next year and would be incredibly short sighted to conduct mass layoffs over a few months of slightly higher debt load that any half decent accounting team can easily work with.

[Raekwon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Anyone wanna buy my house in 3 years when my 1.39% mortgage is up for renewal

Not saying this for any reason other than curiosity but why isn't your house paid off with crypto profits? Seems like one of the first things I would do.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That's just fear mongering. Healthy corporations with legitimate cash flow are never going this route due to a modest increase in rates.

It's just as likely there is a rate decrease by the end of Q1 or into Q2 next year and would be incredibly short sighted to conduct mass layoffs over a few months of slightly higher debt load that any half decent accounting team can easily work with.

The USA continues to have a massive labour shortage. It's one of the main factors driving inflation. On top of that many major corporations in the USA posted record profits last year.

Mass layoffs would require a massive shift in the state of the economy.

[I_H8_Crawford]

Originally Posted by Raekwon

Not saying this for any reason other than curiosity but why isn't your house paid off with crypto profits? Seems like one of the first things I would do.

Why would you pay off a house on a 1.4% mortgage??

That is free money from the bank - make the minimum payments on that, invest the rest of your money into anything else and profit!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Raekwon

Not saying this for any reason other than curiosity but why isn't your house paid off with crypto profits? Seems like one of the first things I would do.

I don't know any of the backstory here but I think the overlap in the venn diagram of "people who went hard into crypto making big profits" and "people who prioritize paying of their mortgage" is probably pretty small.

Those are probably the most risky and most risk adverse ways of investing your savings possible.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by blankall

Really? Aren't most industries still facing labor shortages? I know all the ones I deal with are.

Edit: The US is adding lots of jobs:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs...ry?id=86306953

Unfortunately corperate debt is independent of labour shortages.