03-04-2019, 01:22 PM
|
#1
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
|
Home Ice Disadvantage: Why are our goalies so bad on home ice?
Lots have been made about the Flames goaltending over this season, but I think that one aspect hasn't been getting enough attention: our goalies poor play on the Saddledome ice compared to their play on the road.
We are now in the second straight season where Rittich and Smith are both much better away from the Saddledome.
Going back to the start of the 2017-2018 season here are the home/road splits for Smith/Rittich.
Rittich
Home - GP: 21 SV%: 0.878 HDSV%: 0.782 AdjSv%: -1.86
Road - GP: 36 SV%: 0.924 HDSV%: 0.854 AdjSv%: 1.05
Smith
Home - GP: 53 SV%: 0.895 HDSV%: 0.775 AdjSv%: -0.59
Road - GP: 36 SV%: 0.926 HDSV5: 0.864 AdjSV%: 1.35
And from the team perspective it doesn't feel like we are giving up more quality on home ice than we do on the road - considering we give up fewer shot attempts, shots, and high danger chances at home than we do on the road. Yet somehow we have the 2nd best save percentage in the league on the road, and the worst home save percentage in the league.
Home
Record: 37-26-9
Corsi For %: 55.1%
Corsi Against Per 60: 52.3
Shots Against Per 60: 28.1
HD Corsi Against Per 60: 10.3
SV%: .888 (Last in the NHL)
Expected GA/60: 2.76 per 60
Away
Record: 41-26-8
Corsi For %: 51.3%
Corsi Against Per 60: 57.2
Shots Against Per 60: 31.4
HD Corsi Against Per 60: 11.5
SV%: .917 (2nd in the NHL)
Expected GA/60: 2.96 per 60
It really is an interesting, and very confusing case. Both goalies have played at least 20 games in each situation and yet the trend continues.
Are our goalies struggling to track the puck in the Saddledome? Is it a mental scenario where they are struggling with the pressure on home ice? Could it be the team in front of them plays a tighter game on the road and is more loose on home ice?
So what are your thoughts - why are the Flames goalies so much worse at home than on the road?
Because personally I'm not sure I've ever seen something like this and can't figure out the reason why.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 01:55 PM.
|
|
|
|
The Following User Says Thank You to SuperMatt18 For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:25 PM
|
#2
|
|
Franchise Player
|
Home Ice Disadvantage: Why are our goalies so bad on home ice?
Could be due to high expectations playing in front of big crowds. I didn’t know Rittich’s home stats were that polarized, Smith has been terrible on home ice for two seasons. The home crowd definitely doesn’t have a loving relationship with smith.
I’ve said this before regarding Smith but he should really only be starting on the road unless he needs to start at home due to a back to back or congested schedule. He seems to lose focus way more on home ice after he makes an error.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by Beninho; 03-04-2019 at 01:29 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Cleveland Steam Whistle For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:38 PM
|
#4
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
|
Games have been higher scoring at home:
127 GF vs 101 GA at home
105-85 on the road
Games have also tightened up at late and the Flames schedule has been road heavy lately.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:42 PM
|
#5
|
|
Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
|
Could be the players are not as conservative at home, wanting to put on a show.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:43 PM
|
#6
|
|
Franchise Player
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle
Likely because they are afraid of getting jeered by the home town fans should they make a mistake and having to live up to inflated (and only so because the fans in this town are so extreme on it, not because he wasn't amazing) reputation that everyone must be Kipper like who plays in net for us.
 |
Even Kipper got jeered. No one is safe.
|
|
|
|
|
The Following User Says Thank You to Robbob For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:48 PM
|
#7
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Could be the players are not as conservative at home, wanting to put on a show.
|
I think that potentially could be the case, players taking more risks and giving up more odd man rushes on home ice...but our expected goals against is actually higher on the road than at home...so the stats that take scoring chances and shot quality into consideration don't really seem to prove that out.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 01:51 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 01:55 PM
|
#8
|
|
Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
|
Is it inactivity? Going cold?
Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)
Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3
High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5
They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
|
|
|
|
|
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Bingo For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:02 PM
|
#9
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Is it inactivity? Going cold?
Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)
Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3
High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5
They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
|
That is an interesting one.
Would be neat to try and time the inactivity from the last shot to the goal for all the "soft" goals we've seen this season.
For example I looked back at the game Saturday and when Smith let in the soft goal to make it 4-2 he had not seen a shot for 5 minutes (goal went in with 1:42 remaining, last shot prior to that was 6:47)
And the goal to make it 2-1 was the first shot on goal (if you can even call it that) of the period for Minnesota in the third.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 03-04-2019 at 02:06 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:07 PM
|
#10
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
That is an interesting one.
Would be neat to try and time the inactivity from the last shot to the goal for all the "soft" goals we've seen this season.
For example I looked back at the game Saturday and when Smith let in the soft goal to make it 4-2 he had not seen a shot for 5 minutes (goal went in with 1:42 remaining, last shot prior to that was 6:47)
|
The first goal (not a bad goal) was after a long long period in the other end.
I think Rittich's last 2 games (away) was the same. He had lengthy periods without a shot, and then he'd get a great chance on him. It was tough (but he handled it great IMO).
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:37 PM
|
#11
|
|
Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Is it inactivity? Going cold?
Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)
Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3
High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5
They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
|
Is this perhaps suggestive of the flames maybe getting the matchups they want more frequently at home vs on the road?
It doesn't look like a huge discrepancy except for the scoring chance rate which makes me wonder if that's a factor of specific matchups vs a through the lineup type thing.
Is it possible to look at individual lines and see if there is a similar discrepancy in their possession rates or quality of competition home vs away?
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:41 PM
|
#12
|
|
Franchise Player
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Is it inactivity? Going cold?
Calgary allows the 2nd fewest shots against per 60 on home ice (26.81), though they do allow the 6th fewest on the road (29.95)
Scoring chance rates ...
Home 23.5
Road 27.3
High danger chances ...
Home 10.3
Road 11.5
They are middle of the pack in chances against on home ice ... maybe too little activity and then boom scoring chance.
|
That is going to key in the playoffs, managing shots against...
EDIT: I should say continue to manage - if that count goes up significantly we are hooped....
Last edited by Manhattanboy; 03-04-2019 at 02:44 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:54 PM
|
#13
|
|
Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
Is this perhaps suggestive of the flames maybe getting the matchups they want more frequently at home vs on the road?
It doesn't look like a huge discrepancy except for the scoring chance rate which makes me wonder if that's a factor of specific matchups vs a through the lineup type thing.
Is it possible to look at individual lines and see if there is a similar discrepancy in their possession rates or quality of competition home vs away?
|
Nothing jumps out ... Gaudreau and Monahan play firewagon hockey no matter where they play, but they do give up more on home ice (Gaudreau 108% of the road data)
Team rankings.
Home
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 2nd
SC vs / 60 5th
HD vs / 60 12th
Road
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 8th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 16th
Five on five there is a bigger discrepancy between shot rates and quality chance rates on home ice.
Home
PK
Shots vs / 60 4th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 18th
Road
PK
Shots vs / 60 5th
SC vs / 60 8th
HD vs / 60 17th
Once again a wider gap on home ice.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:57 PM
|
#14
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Calgary
|
It's the red pads
__________________
"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:58 PM
|
#15
|
|
Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Nothing jumps out ... Gaudreau and Monahan play firewagon hockey no matter where they play, but they do give up more on home ice (Gaudreau 108% of the road data)
Team rankings.
Home
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 2nd
SC vs / 60 5th
HD vs / 60 12th
Road
Five on Five
Shots vs / 60 8th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 16th
Five on five there is a bigger discrepancy between shot rates and quality chance rates on home ice.
Home
PK
Shots vs / 60 4th
SC vs / 60 16th
HD vs / 60 18th
Road
PK
Shots vs / 60 5th
SC vs / 60 8th
HD vs / 60 17th
Once again a wider gap on home ice.
|
Could you do the same for backlund/tkachuk?
I do buy the 'cold' argument as the likeliest explanation, but I want to figure out whether whether it's an argument that the flames are playing better defensively on home ice because of defensive matchups and thus fewer chances against/longer period of inactivity or if the flames are playing better offensively due to matchups and thus fewer chances against/longer period of inactivity.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 02:58 PM
|
#16
|
|
First Line Centre
|
My guess is it has something to do with Sigalet... does he even go on the road with the team?
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 05:29 PM
|
#17
|
|
Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV
It's the red pads
|
It might be, and that would be a terrible shame because they are so beautiful.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 05:46 PM
|
#18
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle
Likely because they are afraid of getting jeered by the home town fans should they make a mistake and having to live up to inflated (and only so because the fans in this town are so extreme on it, not because he wasn't amazing) reputation that everyone must be Kipper like who plays in net for us.
|
I got a kick out of this post existing at the same time as the ‘who is the third best goalie after Kipper and Vernon’ thread, which clearly illustrates that no one who has played is anywhere near Kipper.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 06:03 PM
|
#19
|
|
Lifetime Suspension
|
Flames play more open style at home and give up more high quality chances?
Wonder how odd man rushes and breakaways are broken up, road vs home.
|
|
|
|
|
03-04-2019, 06:14 PM
|
#20
|
|
Lifetime Suspension
|
Because Smith.
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:29 PM.
|
|
