Edmonton is No Good VI: Chia•den•freu•de

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by bax

Stauffer reported that the Oilers were working on their powerplay today:

PP 1
Klefbom
McDavid - Draisaitl - RNH
Lucic

PP 2
Benning
Puljujarvi - Strome - Caggiula
Rieder

Has to be one of the worst looking second units in the league, no? Also, isn't that all left shot players on the first unit? That really sunk Calgary's PP last year in my opinion.

Team has the depth of a kiddie pool.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

OK, confusing diagram is confusing. There are three players labelled ‘1’ in the top picture, and one of them at first sight appears to be the opposing goalie.)

When you talk about #1, do you mean the player on the left-wing boards, or the point man?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Maybe, but they did that a lot in 2017 and got results.

You're a stats guy.

The stats had the Flames second best in the NHL last season on the PP in generating High Danger Chances. Oilers 15th.

Stats were wrong there or not?

That's honestly been the biggest debate I've been embroiled in over the past 6 months.

I do think the Oilers had their share of misfortune last year. I also think some of the systems deployed created shots that weren't as dangerous as others from the same area.

One thing I'd look at though is out right counts instead of % for powerplay data. All powerplays out chance the opposition, so I think counts out of 60 pp minutes mean more.

The Flames had the 2nd highest high danger shot attempt per 60 minutes of powerplay time. The Oilers 15th.

The Flames had the 7th highest scoring chance per 60 minutes of PP time, the Oilers 9th.

Where the Oilers stand out is high danger shooting percentage ... last place at 11.85%, the Flames not much better at 13.3%. The league average is 16.5%.

The "maybe they shot too much from bad areas" look ... Edmonton was 10th, Calgary 11th at low danger attempts per 60 minutes. A bad shot likely hurts you as you turn the puck over.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

OK, confusing diagram is confusing. There are three players labelled ‘1’ in the top picture, and one of them at first sight appears to be the opposing goalie.)

When you talk about #1, do you mean the player on the left-wing boards, or the point man?

I didn't even realize that when I used the pic. haha. I just zoned in on the two positions I was describing.


I am talking about the guy on the left wing boards as being #1.

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

OK, confusing diagram is confusing. There are three players labelled ‘1’ in the top picture, and one of them at first sight appears to be the opposing goalie.)

When you talk about #1, do you mean the player on the left-wing boards, or the point man?

he's talking about the #1 along the left boards. I got confused because he's using opposite terminology for strong/weak side when talking about 5v5 compared to 5v4 play. me and the people I talk to always refer to the boards and handedness as strong when they match, regardless of situation.

[Bingo]

I know Gaudreau on his strong side was a disaster last year.

1) he's good at getting himself in position
2) he has a muffin
3) his move before shooting always made his angle worse

They finally got Hamilton on his off side near the end of the season but he was too far out.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's honestly been the biggest debate I've been embroiled in over the past 6 months.

I do think the Oilers had their share of misfortune last year. I also think some of the systems deployed created shots that weren't as dangerous as others from the same area.

One thing I'd look at though is out right counts instead of % for powerplay data. All powerplays out chance the opposition, so I think counts out of 60 pp minutes mean more.

The Flames had the 2nd highest high danger shot attempt per 60 minutes of powerplay time. The Oilers 15th.

The Flames had the 7th highest scoring chance per 60 minutes of PP time, the Oilers 9th.

Where the Oilers stand out is high danger shooting percentage ... last place at 11.85%, the Flames not much better at 13.3%. The league average is 16.5%.

The "maybe they shot too much from bad areas" look ... Edmonton was 10th, Calgary 11th at low danger attempts per 60 minutes. A bad shot likely hurts you as you turn the puck over.

Thanks for your thoughts on that. I think it has to be a combination of poor play and poor luck for both teams.

I admit I still maybe don't understand or trust high danger shot attempt data.

If you want to use rates Calgary was 28th in goals for/60. Is that really possible if they are 2nd in the league at creating high danger shots per 60?

If that's correct then specials teams are essentially entirely luck based and I don't think that can be true.

Perhaps the errors in the data get exaggerated when you take all shots and then throw out everything except whatever small percentage make up high danger chances, because they never seem to pass the sniff test when I look at high danger chance data.

It seems so random.

[Eric Vail]

When a team has a bad power play production for 82 games and the stats say that they were just unlucky, I think you need better stats.

Production over 82 games tells the tale.

[mikeecho]

Just finished listening to this weeks episode 108 of the Spittin' Chiclets podcast. It was all in good fun, but Ryan Whitney took some nice and funny jabs at Edmonton. Hanifin was a guest as well.



Well worth the listen.



They know E = NG

[topfiverecords]

2-0 so far and on track for the usual preseason champions banner. Rattie playing like he’s worth Lucic money.

Oilers - Leafs Stanley Cup is all but an inevitability & no good.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Thanks for your thoughts on that. I think it has to be a combination of poor play and poor luck for both teams.

I admit I still maybe don't understand or trust high danger shot attempt data.

If you want to use rates Calgary was 28th in goals for/60. Is that really possible if they are 2nd in the league at creating high danger shots per 60?

If that's correct then specials teams are essentially entirely luck based and I don't think that can be true.

Perhaps the errors in the data get exaggerated when you take all shots and then throw out everything except whatever small percentage make up high danger chances, because they never seem to pass the sniff test when I look at high danger chance data.

It seems so random.

Flames had a stat that really stood out last year and that was missing the net. If you add up over the net, wide of the net, crossbars and posts the Flames were the most errant team since the NHL started tracking this 9 years ago.

That says a lot at 30 teams x 9 seasons.

Edmonton was 9th but pretty close to the league average.

[McG]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

2-0 so far and on track for the usual preseason champions banner. Rattie playing like he’s worth Lucic money.

Oilers - Leafs Stanley Cup is all but an inevitability & no good.

Who can get the parade route planned first? That’s another new banner.

[Electricprez]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames had a stat that really stood out last year and that was missing the net. If you add up over the net, wide of the net, crossbars and posts the Flames were the most errant team since the NHL started tracking this 9 years ago.

How many of those shots were Hamonic's?
Every single time that guy winds up, you know it's going nowhere near the goal.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Electricprez

How many of those shots were Hamonic's?
Every single time that guy winds up, you know it's going nowhere near the goal.

1. Hamilton 109 (10th in league)
2. Giordano 95 (20th)
3. Gaudreau 91 (28th)
4. Backlund 85 (47th)
5. Monahan 84 (49th)

11. Hamonic 60

Interesting that no one Flame had an outlandish season for missing the net historically, so basically it was a team wide sickness.

[PugnaciousIntern]

^Would be interested in their 'accuracy %', as I have always thought that Gio was quite good at getting pucks on net. I'm sure he takes more shots than most.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames had a stat that really stood out last year and that was missing the net. If you add up over the net, wide of the net, crossbars and posts the Flames were the most errant team since the NHL started tracking this 9 years ago.

That says a lot at 30 teams x 9 seasons.

Edmonton was 9th but pretty close to the league average.

That's impressive in a way .

Like the Oilers last year being last in home PK % since the NHL started recording that stat in 1977 and first on the road.

Sometimes hockey just doesn't make any sense.

One thing that is interesting is that there definitely seem to be coaches that depress 5 on 5 shooting %.

Darryl Sutter looks to be one. The Kings were often bottom five if not last in shot%. Last year free of Sutter they went to 12th.
Todd McLellan as well. Lots of low finishes in shooting % for the Sharks. Oilers in bottom third 2/3 years of his tenure.
I'm not sure about Gulutzan. He hasn't spent long enough in one spot to see a clear pattern.
Bill Peters also looks like on of these guys. Carolina's best Es shooting % as a team was 20th under his watch.

So it'll be interesting this season to see how much of a bounce back if any guys have under Peters. There should be some for sure if they had a historically bad year missing the net, but how much is the question.

[Electricprez]

Originally Posted by Bingo

1. Hamilton 109 (10th in league)
2. Giordano 95 (20th)
3. Gaudreau 91 (28th)
4. Backlund 85 (47th)
5. Monahan 84 (49th)

11. Hamonic 60

Interesting that no one Flame had an outlandish season for missing the net historically, so basically it was a team wide sickness.

Dang, shows my bias at work. Never would've put Hamilton's number higher than Hamonic's. Maybe he just shot more?

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Electricprez

Dang, shows my bias at work. Never would've put Hamilton's number higher than Hamonic's. Maybe he just shot more?

Yeah. You weren't biased.

Hamilton missed 29% of his shots.
Hamonic missed 36%.
Guys like Brouwer, and Stone also didn't show well in %.
Brouwer had like 40% missed shots.
Magiapaine missed 53% in a small sample. Might have been some nerves there. hah.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

That's impressive in a way .

Like the Oilers last year being last in home PK % since the NHL started recording that stat in 1977 and first on the road.

Sometimes hockey just doesn't make any sense.

One thing that is interesting is that there definitely seem to be coaches that depress 5 on 5 shooting %.

Darryl Sutter looks to be one. The Kings were often bottom five if not last in shot%. Last year free of Sutter they went to 12th.
Todd McLellan as well. Lots of low finishes in shooting % for the Sharks. Oilers in bottom third 2/3 years of his tenure.
I'm not sure about Gulutzan. He hasn't spent long enough in one spot to see a clear pattern.
Bill Peters also looks like on of these guys. Carolina's best Es shooting % as a team was 20th under his watch.

So it'll be interesting this season to see how much of a bounce back if any guys have under Peters. There should be some for sure if they had a historically bad year missing the net, but how much is the question.

The one big caveat with Peters is payroll. Only one team in the National Hockey League has been in the final three in payroll in each of the last three seasons and it's Carolina.

He may be pushing play the best he can with what he had.

Will find out this year though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

That's impressive in a way .

Like the Oilers last year being last in home PK % since the NHL started recording that stat in 1977 and first on the road.

Sometimes hockey just doesn't make any sense.

One thing that is interesting is that there definitely seem to be coaches that depress 5 on 5 shooting %.

Darryl Sutter looks to be one. The Kings were often bottom five if not last in shot%. Last year free of Sutter they went to 12th.
Todd McLellan as well. Lots of low finishes in shooting % for the Sharks. Oilers in bottom third 2/3 years of his tenure.
I'm not sure about Gulutzan. He hasn't spent long enough in one spot to see a clear pattern.
Bill Peters also looks like on of these guys. Carolina's best Es shooting % as a team was 20th under his watch.

So it'll be interesting this season to see how much of a bounce back if any guys have under Peters. There should be some for sure if they had a historically bad year missing the net, but how much is the question.

I don't know man, maybe the Oilers had a historically bad PK and ST overall because their personally is pretty much expansion team bad except for McDimple and Draisaitl, and they were being coached by a pee wee coaching staff.


Maybe it wasn't some fluke or statistical anomaly, but a true reflection of years of pissed away draft picks, bad personal decisions and a goalie that final succumbed to shell shock after playing behind a blueline that even in their best year a couple of years ago constantly allowed a steady stream of "This guy scored" type of shot quality.


Maybe the Oilers special teams were bad because the team, organization, management and coaches are just . . . . bad.


Maybe it wasn't an outlier as much as a reflection of the true nature of the Oilers themselves.


And the one thing that comes into play when you talk about a record of patheticness not seen since the 70's is that frankly, records are made to be broken.