Playoff Probabilities - Page 5 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Party Elephant · 02-07-2018, 02:17 AM

There is no probability. Only snake.

Brick · 02-07-2018, 09:42 AM

50.2%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

troutman · 02-09-2018, 09:09 AM

56.7%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

Ducks falling out of it.

nfotiu · 02-09-2018, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

56.7%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

Ducks falling out of it.

meh, they're still a 2-3 game win streak from being back in it. I consider the single digit percentages the hole that is too dig to deep out of and it looks like Chicago fell down that hole this week.

Looks like it's 8 teams for 5 spots now or 4 teams for the 2 divisional spots and we're right smack in the middle of both those battles.

Otto-matic · 02-09-2018, 09:18 AM

14-10-4

Should be easily doable for this club to reach 96 points.

I'm starting to think though it may take closer to 100Pts to lock up a spot in the West this year.

Robbob · 02-09-2018, 09:25 AM

All the California teams I think are still in the thick of it. Sure people have a game or two on Anaheim, but with 28 games there is a lot of wiggle room.

If I had to guess, I would expect LA to rise in the standing, particularly when they get Jeff Carter back. Without Mackinnon I would expect Colorado to go into a little dip. Chicago just doesn't have the goaltending to make the push. Once everyone gets down to 20 games or so I think we will know who will be involved in that final push.

troutman · 02-09-2018, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfotiu

meh, they're still a 2-3 game win streak from being back in it.

They have to win three more games than three teams ahead of them.

nfotiu · 02-09-2018, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

14-10-4

Should be easily doable for this club to reach 96 points.

I'm starting to think though it may take closer to 100Pts to lock up a spot in the West this year.

98 will probably have your relying on tie breakers.

Looking at the standings. If LA got an OTL in their game in hand, and Col won theirs, and the season ended, there would be a 5 way tie for the 2 seed, 3 seed, second wild card and 2 spots out of the playoffs.

The 10th seed would have the same # of points as the divisional 2nd seed.

That's a pretty tight race!

Corral · 02-09-2018, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

They have to win three more games than three teams ahead of them.

Exactly. And the loser points make this even more difficult. Too many folks talk about winning streaks like the team winning is doing it in a vacuum.

nfotiu · 02-09-2018, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

They have to win three more games than three teams ahead of them.

Nah, there's so many teams in the mix. If they won 3 in a row, the standings will take care of themselves. 10 games over .500 is in a spot now and probably will be for a week or so.

Brick · 02-09-2018, 09:57 AM

56.6%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Textcritic · 02-09-2018, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Nah, there's so many teams in the mix. If they won 3 in a row, the standings will take care of themselves. 10 games over .500 is in a spot now and probably will be for a week or so.

Before losing on Weds the Oilers were on a 5-1-1 run in which time they actually LOST GROUND to every team on the playoff bubble. Having so many teams in the mix is precisely why it is that much more difficult to make ground up from behind.

nfotiu · 02-09-2018, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Before losing on Weds the Oilers were on a 5-1-1 run in which time they actually LOST GROUND to every team on the playoff bubble. Having so many teams in the mix is precisely why it is that much more difficult to make ground up from behind.

No, they didn't. They gained some ground over that stretch if you look at any kind of standings format that accounts for games played, which is the correct way to look at it.

Robbob · 02-09-2018, 11:47 AM

Just looking at the schedule, if you just take ANA, CGY, COL, DAL, LA, MIN, SJ, and STL there are 184 games left on the schedule that involve those teams. 40 of those games involve head to matchups with those teams.

Two ways to look at it. Potential for lots of extra points or if won in regulation points taken off the board. Calgary is actually in the least amount of those head to head games.

Anaheim 10
Calgary 7
Colorado 10
Dallas 12
LA 9
Minny 11
SJ 11
STL 10

Textcritic · 02-09-2018, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbob

Just looking at the schedule, if you just take ANA, CGY, COL, DAL, LA, MIN, SJ, and STL there are 184 games left on the schedule that involve those teams. 40 of those games involve head to matchups with those teams.

Two ways to look at it. Potential for lots of extra points or if won in regulation points taken off the board. Calgary is actually in the least amount of those head to head games.

Anaheim 10
Calgary 7
Colorado 10
Dallas 12
LA 9
Minny 11
SJ 11
STL 10

Interesting. I also see that the Flames have played more games in the WC than any other Pac Div team:

Cgy 33 GP
VGK 31 GP
LAK 30 GP
Edm 29 GP
Ana 28 GP
Arz 28 GP
Van 28 GP
SJS 26 GP

Robbob · 02-09-2018, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Interesting. I also see that the Flames have played more games in the WC than any other Pac Div team:

Cgy 33 GP
VGK 31 GP
LAK 30 GP
Edm 29 GP
Ana 28 GP
Arz 28 GP
Van 28 GP
SJS 26 GP

By my count only 8 of those remaining 17 games are against those 8 teams (4 of those are 2 each SJ and COL). I guess a lot less 4 point games to have to deal with, which from the hunted position can be beneficial.

Classic_Sniper · 02-09-2018, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbob

Just looking at the schedule, if you just take ANA, CGY, COL, DAL, LA, MIN, SJ, and STL there are 184 games left on the schedule that involve those teams. 40 of those games involve head to matchups with those teams.

Two ways to look at it. Potential for lots of extra points or if won in regulation points taken off the board. Calgary is actually in the least amount of those head to head games.

Anaheim 10
Calgary 7
Colorado 10
Dallas 12
LA 9
Minny 11
SJ 11
STL 10

Nice work, I was looking into this as well and Dallas, Minnesota and St Louis will all be playing the California teams more than we do along with their own divisional teams. They have the toughest schedules going forward and these teams will all be taking points from each other which will help us especially if most of these games end in regulation.

The current pace to get in is 97 points but I could see it lowering to 95-96 points with all these head to heads. The good thing for our team is that we have the opportunity to play for 4 playoff positions whereas the Central teams only have 3. There’s s couple things going for us that gives us higher odds than other teams I would say from an optimist’s standpoint.

442scotty · 02-10-2018, 08:32 PM

Flames really need to win the last 3 games on this road trip to stay in good shape. Lose all three and they can start dusting off the clubs...

Moneyhands23 · 02-10-2018, 08:48 PM

Flames have a really tough schedule for the rest of the month. Gotta start beating teams ahead of them in the standings.

Robbob · 02-10-2018, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 442scotty

Flames really need to win the last 3 games on this road trip to stay in good shape. Lose all three and they can start dusting off the clubs...

You are ready to call it a season based on 3 games when there is a third of the season left? Sooooo much hockey left.

Probably 6 teams in similar position.