[Signing] Oilers have re-signed Koskinen (3 yrs, $4.5 mil AAV, 15 team NTC)

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It will be interesting to see how this contract works out.

I've seen the argument about coaching style, and I've seen the argument about missing Klefbom - reason for Koskinen's decline of late.

So here's a table ...

Row Labels	Count of Date	Saves	Save%	CA/Game	SCA/Game	HDA/Game
McLellan	8	211	0.913	56.8	28.8	11.1
Healthy	8	211	0.913	56.8	28.8	11.1
Hitchcock	20	505	0.908	55.7	27.2	12.4
Healthy	7	196	0.942	59.1	28.9	12.9
Klefbom	13	309	0.888	53.8	26.2	12.1
Grand Total	28	716	0.910	56.0	27.6	12.0

In chapters ...

Chapter One - McLellan as coach - .913 save percentage
Chapter Two - Hitchcock with Klefbom healthy - .942 save percentage
Chapter Three - Hitchcock Klefbom hurt - .888 save percentage

The assumption ... Klefbom out means Oilers are no good and it's not Koskinen's fault.

But look at the team metrics at the same time.

Chapter One - McLellan as coach - CA 56.8 SCA 28.8 HDCA 11.1
Chapter Two - Hitchcock with Klefbom healthy - CA 59.1 SCA 28.9 HDCA 12.9
Chapter Three - Hitchcock Klefbom hurt - CA 53.8 SCA 26.2 HDCA 12.1

The Oilers have given up less in terms of shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances without Klefbom but Koskinen has been shredded just the same.

I’ll add one more layer. In the statistical / research world, absolutely all results are accompanied by margins of error. It’s a little more mathy and not easily digestible for the general hockey fan base. But if you are making hockey decisions based on results, you can’t just compare two numbers without considering ‘what if this is just random chance’?

Some things you need for accurate estimates are large differences and large sample size. In this example, we do have a relatively large difference in estimates (0.942 vs 0.888). We do have a relatively huge difference in context of hockey goalies, but a difference of 0.054 in a test of proportions is quite small. This is where the number of games played (more specifically, number of shots faced) comes into consideration.its not even close to reaching statistical significance. Plus, we know that there are plenty of other factors beyond Hotch an Klefblom that we need to adjust for (score effects, shot danger, etc). There simply isn’t a body of evidence to make a claim based on in-game statistical evidence.

That leaves us with hockey sense. For example, if a PeeWee goalie was thrown into an NHL game and let in the first shot of the game, while there isn’t enough body of evidence to ‘statistically’ predict that he will continue to be lit up, we all can see that he’s not going to be a good goaltender. That’s because of factors that we can appreciate, but that the numbers themselves might not.

So without statistical backing, the Oilers are either A) misinterpreting basic statistics or B) using their hockey sense to make these decisions. Either option is very reassuring to all Flames fans!

[shadowlord]

Isn't this the same organization that gave Ben Scrivens a multi year contract (effectively) after making a 50-something shot shutout in a single game? And if memory serves me correctly, that wasn't even under Chiarelli's watch.

Somethings never change.

EDIT:

Ben Scrivens (age 27): 10-9-4 (LA+Edm), SV .934, $2.3mil/2yr at the time of signing
Mikko Koskinen (age 30): 10-14-1 (Edm), SV .911, $4.5mil/3yr

[Flames fan 4 life]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

People have some silly, childish notion that these guys hold some special allegiance to the Flames that results in them making bad business decisions.
Yes, Iginla held out and Kipper went to arbitration. Such is the nature of the business side, and is definitely not a measure of their loyalty to the organization.

IIRC Kipper went to arbitration because Sutter said he didn’t know how to go about his contract and thought it was a fair way to proceed

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Flames fan 4 life

IIRC Kipper went to arbitration because Sutter said he didn’t know how to go about his contract and thought it was a fair way to proceed

Arbitration, by definition, should be fair. It also guarantees the player will be on the ice. It's part of the process, and I have no problem with it at all.

[GreenLantern2814]

Oscar Klefbom must secretly be the best defenseman in the world.

[crapshoot]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Oscar Klefbom must secretly be the best defenseman in the world.

In other words, he is just another one of their five Giordanos, since the real Mark Giordano probably is the best defenseman in the world at this point.

[transplant99]

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

[Captaincanada80]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

I could see it...

If he wins the Stanley Cup!!

Otherwise 2.5M-4M pending term

[Bingo]

yeah with the deSmith contract out there the numbers line up on the team side, unless they go long term.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

No rush to get this done as lets see how the season ends. Elliott at one time looked to be heading to a possible extension with the Flames and then the playoffs happened.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

Those guys just don't have a handle on contracts. They've been dead wrong in their predictions almost every time.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those guys just don't have a handle on contracts. They've been dead wrong in their predictions almost every time.

I dont really remember them talking a whole lot about such things, but they are just guessing like anyone else.

I just thought it was a bit jarring that BSD would be in that 4M conversation based on what he has done thus far...particularly as an RFA.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I dont really remember them talking a whole lot about such things, but they are just guessing like anyone else.

I just thought it was a bit jarring that BSD would be in that 4M conversation based on what he has done thus far...particularly as an RFA.

They'd talked about it when Gio, Johnnie and Monnie were up, and, more recently, about Nylander.

Typically, they err high for some reason.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

They were speculating that Gaudreau's contract might be over $9M. They have been horribly wrong, and almost invariably way too high, with pretty much every one.

As someone else said, I think the only way Rittich's contract is in the 4s is if the Flames make the cup final and he is heroic in the cause. And if so, pay the man!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They were speculating that Gaudreau's contract might be over $9M. They have been horribly wrong, and almost invariably way too high, with pretty much every one.

As someone else said, I think the only way Rittich's contract is in the 4s is if the Flames make the cup final and he is heroic in the cause. And if so, pay the man!

And further people keep thinking that they're using Koskinen as a comparable when he really isnt.

Koskinen's contract will have no bearing upon the negotiations between parties maintaining relatively normal levels of sanity.

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The guys on 960 were speculating this morning that Rittich will be signing a deal that starts at 4+ million a year.

I just dont see it myself.

If Ritter expects 4+ a year. He's going to need to win a couple playoff series and prove he's a legit #1.

I'd be hesitant to hand out a larger contract for a goalie who's posted 1 good season so far.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

If Ritter expects 4+ a year. He's going to need to win a couple playoff series and prove he's a legit #1.

I'd be hesitant to hand out a larger contract for a goalie who's posted 1 good season so far.

Kipper signed a 3 year 10 million contract after the 04 run/lock out. He was 28 at the time. I think that contract is something to work around from a starting point. Things to consider are Kipper was UFA coming off a pretty significant playoff run with his cap hit being around 7% of the team cap hit. For Rittich one of the big factors is one of his years is RFA so that will drop the AAV. Matt Murray after wining the cup, had an RFA cap hit of 3.75.

Time will tell, but I can definitely his UFA years starting with the number 4.