Bird flu virus showed slight mutation: WHO

[jolinar of malkshor]

So how long do you guys think before this thing really hits the fan and becomes a pandemic? If this thing really mutates to the point of pandemic proportions I think we will all be screwed. If the virus doesn't kill ya then our economy will go to sh*t.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/nati.../bird-flu.html

[Flames89]

All I know is that Calgary is one of the places I would want to be when it does hit. Living in Toronto during SARS, and living in China right now Calgary is in a pretty sweet remote spot.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Flames89

All I know is that Calgary is one of the places I would want to be when it does hit. Living in Toronto during SARS, and living in China right now Calgary is in a pretty sweet remote spot.

It also helps that we dont have any direct flights to Asia.

[Azure]

While there is reason for concern, I hope people don't run out and barricade themselves from the world for the next 10 years because they're scared of getting infected with this.

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by Azure

While there is reason for concern, I hope people don't run out and barricade themselves from the world for the next 10 years because they're scared of getting infected with this.

If it's going to happen, it's going to happen. No amount of isolation will keep one safe from it.

Unless you decide to move to Northern Alaska

[Canada 02]

Vaccines are produced each year for seasonal influenza. If there is a "reassorted" avian virus, WHO will isolate it like any seasonal influenza and develop a vaccine within a few months of its detection. North Americans are probably safe

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by jolinar of malkshor

If the virus doesn't kill ya then our economy will go to sh*t.

And just what do you base that assumption on? The last global pandemic (Spanish Influenza, 1919) was followed by a decade of unprecedented economic growth. I'm not suggesting that the economic prosperity was because of the pandemic. The cold reality is that death on a massive scale doesn't always hurt the economy as much is often assumed. I remember reading one estimate that the global economy can sustain a 1% hit (that's 60 million deaths) from a pandemic without really taking much of a setback. That's roughly double the death-toll from the Spanish Influenza, and a more than a hundred times the death-toll of the Asian Influenza and the Hong Kong Influenza combined.

I'm a believer that the best thing we can do right now is a policy such as that currently being undertaken in Vietnam: inoculation of all poultry against the virus. It's expensive and logistically complex. But it makes so much more sense to try to control this virus in livestock than to wait until it jumps to humans, then control it there.

[Wookie]

Well there is a lot of interesting things that could potentially happen. While the global economy could survive and not fall into recession as a result, there still could be some amazing side effects.

The markets would no doubt take a serious hit. Investors could liquidate holdings, move into gold, cash, and away from stocks bonds etc.

People could get cleaned out pretty quickly in a few markets, leading to sell offs elsewhere triggering a massive decline. A lot of the population would lose their savings, investments etc. This could cause a lot of movement in the housing market, debts couldn't be covered, a serious real estate decline. As well if there is a lot of death in NA or Western Europe the housing prices could crash, accompanying any sell offs from bankruptcy etc. there would also be an oversupply as a lot of deaths would leave empty houses.

Housing prices crashing again could cause some serious hardships, banks, investors, a lot of people losing money.

As well what if it's like the last influenza where young healthy individuals are the most likely to die. We've got a problem with paying for the baby-boomers retirement and health care costs, their pensions and retirement funds could have just been destroyed in any market correction. Then what's it going to be like if the death toll is a significantly larger portion of the working age group?

It's pretty interesting. There is also money to be made, a lot of heath care companies would make money, through all stages of the flu, if gold becomes a safe haven for investment someones got to find this gold, mine it, sell it, people already own it..

Wow, that was 2 minutes of thoughts.. It'd be pretty difficult to gauge the kind of result of something like this happening would be. Other then it just wouldn't be good.

Sadly in the long run the world could be better off for the survivors. There could be a drastic reduction in population, the poorest countries most likely having their populations decimated. The AIDS problem in Africa would be diminished, I can't imagine many AIDS?HIV sufferers lasting very long in an influenza, the global food need might be greatly diminished, assuming our ability to produce food doesn't fall as much as the population.

What sort of behaviour would something like this lead to? Near the end would everyone be susceptible to terrorist attacks? I'm sure national security would take a hit, it's probably be a lot easier to blow something up when the world is too busy trying to stop massive rioting panic, and supply the population with medication or vaccines.

The travel industry would be destoyed, destinations, property again..

Wow..

[octothorp]

Good points Wookie, but what you're imagining is sort of a perfect storm of conditions, and while it is a possibility, it's extremely remote. It would probably be right to say that there's a chance that a H5N1 pandemic will result in an economic collapse, but it's really not that likely. There's only a small chance that H5N1 or some variant will become a pandemic, and if it does, the chances of it being the sort of deadly killer that you're talking about are far smaller. A million deaths is a realistic prediction. I think a couple hundred million would be necessary for the sort of effects that you're talking about.

The article at the beginning of this thread really shows the good news about this virus. The virus mutated, and within a matter of a couple weeks, everyone who contracted that particular strain was dead. Why is that good news? Short incubation times and high mortality. Spanish Influenza stayed dormant in some carriers for a very long time, and its fatality rate was about 3.5%. By comparison, the H5N1 virus has a fatility of around 50%, which really limits its contagiousness. In that way, it's more like the Ebola virus than the Spanish Influenza.

[Wookie]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Good points Wookie, but what you're imagining is sort of a perfect storm of conditions, and while it is a possibility, it's extremely remote. It would probably be right to say that there's a chance that a H5N1 pandemic will result in an economic collapse, but it's really not that likely. There's only a small chance that H5N1 or some variant will become a pandemic, and if it does, the chances of it being the sort of deadly killer that you're talking about are far smaller. A million deaths is a realistic prediction. I think a couple hundred million would be necessary for the sort of effects that you're talking about.

The article at the beginning of this thread really shows the good news about this virus. The virus mutated, and within a matter of a couple weeks, everyone who contracted that particular strain was dead. Why is that good news? Short incubation times and high mortality. Spanish Influenza stayed dormant in some carriers for a very long time, and its fatality rate was about 3.5%. By comparison, the H5N1 virus has a fatility of around 50%, which really limits its contagiousness. In that way, it's more like the Ebola virus than the Spanish Influenza.

Oh yeah, I know, was just sort of starting from a worldwide killer.. Assuming that then we're off to the races lol..

So once that is rolling then I don't think all those factors are that outrrageos. But yeah, need for the virus to mutate, transfer effeciently, and not kill its hosts too fast

[jolinar of malkshor]

Originally Posted by octothorp

And just what do you base that assumption on? The last global pandemic (Spanish Influenza, 1919) was followed by a decade of unprecedented economic growth. I'm not suggesting that the economic prosperity was because of the pandemic. The cold reality is that death on a massive scale doesn't always hurt the economy as much is often assumed. I remember reading one estimate that the global economy can sustain a 1% hit (that's 60 million deaths) from a pandemic without really taking much of a setback. That's roughly double the death-toll from the Spanish Influenza, and a more than a hundred times the death-toll of the Asian Influenza and the Hong Kong Influenza combined.

I'm a believer that the best thing we can do right now is a policy such as that currently being undertaken in Vietnam: inoculation of all poultry against the virus. It's expensive and logistically complex. But it makes so much more sense to try to control this virus in livestock than to wait until it jumps to humans, then control it there.

Maybe world war one had something to due with the economic growth just like WWII had. I can guarantee you the spanish flu didnt create the growth.

[Faust]

There's no question H5N1 bird flu has 'pandemic potential.' How likely is that worst-case scenario?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/h5n1-...emic-1.7193384

[Faust]

Canada expanding surveillance, testing milk for H5N1 avian flu amid U.S. dairy cattle outbreak

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/h5n1-...ting-1.7194147

[Locke]

If the bats and Pangolins and swine and whatever other flus didnt take us out then what chance do the birds have??

None! None I say!!

[Slava]

Wow, an 18 year old bump is really impressive!

I do wonder about the implications here. If the spread among cattle becomes a major problem, does that result in a massive cull? Does it jump from cattle to humans? It’s both interesting and concerning.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Slava

Wow, an 18 year old bump is really impressive!

I do wonder about the implications here. If the spread among cattle becomes a major problem, does that result in a massive cull? Does it jump from cattle to humans? It’s both interesting and concerning.

Yeah....I think Jolinar might actually be dead. Just...old age.

[Faust]

How humans can and can’t catch bird flu

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/HEA...U/lgpdndoyrpo/

[Faust]

No one wants to think about pandemics. But bird flu doesn’t care.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...us-coronavirus

[bc-chris]

i'm sure we can stop with a little bleach injection... right??

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by bc-chris

i'm sure we can stop with a little bleach injection... right??

It has to get into the lungs, and cleanse.