Dan Vladar and his advanced stats

[Zary's-Mustache]

The eye test has shown he is a below average goalie in a lot of situations. He seems to do good on plays up close or where fast reflexes are needed but his positioning has been bad for 2 years now imo. The advanced stats have also shown that.

He is 91st of 93rd this year in goals saved above expected.

He was 95th of 107th last season for goals saved above expected.

For save % saved above expected he is dead last 74/74 for any goalie who has played at least 7 games.

I think he is skilled and has the tools but can't seem to put it together.

What should be the plan for next season goaltending wise?

Are we really going to trade Markstrom and go with Vladar starting probably at least half the games? He isn't even a capable backup right now.

[Lewis_D]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Are we really going to trade Markstrom and go with Vladar starting probably at least half the games? He isn't even a capable backup right now.

If we want to tank, then it seems like a pretty sound plan. It's not gonna be fun but it's kind of a necessary evil.

I anticipate we won't have a Wolf/Vladar tandem going into next season though.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Are we really going to trade Markstrom and go with Vladar starting probably at least half the games? He isn't even a capable backup right now.

I hope so. Any goalie is going to get lit up when they are playing behind a defense with two top four dmen, a #5, and then #6/7s. Markstrom got lit up in his last start as well. They should use Vladar to shelter Wolf and see if either can grab the starter position.

[Bingo]

He's better eye test to me than his numbers. He gives up a bunch and you kind of feel that they weren't really his fault, but the volume of the mid to high danger stuff getting by him makes his final numbers brutal.

Seeing if that's true ...

63 goalies have played 1000 or more minutes (starters and backups)

Ranking:

High Danger - 49th
Medium Danger - 54th
Low Danger - 63rd

Yikes ... I got that one wrong.

He's not good at any level in that analysis and is worst in low danger of any goalie with 1000 or more minutes.

Those counting models have flaws, but not to hide what is a pretty rough year for the guy.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He's better eye test to me than his numbers. He gives up a bunch and you kind of feel that they weren't really his fault, but the volume of the mid to high danger stuff getting by him makes his final numbers brutal.

Seeing if that's true ...

63 goalies have played 1000 or more minutes (starters and backups)

Ranking:

High Danger - 49th
Medium Danger - 54th
Low Danger - 63rd

Yikes ... I got that one wrong.

He's not good at any level in that analysis and is worst in low danger of any goalie with 1000 or more minutes.

Those counting models have flaws, but not to hide what is a pretty rough year for the guy.

Hard to win games when lots of low event stuff is getting by your goalie AND hes bad at stopping the medium and high danger stuff too.

Compare that to early season Markstrom who was way above average in high danger sv%, but was letting in a softie every game. Once he cleaned up that bit, he's been having a great season. You aren't getting that with Vladar, just bad all over.

[Macindoc]

Vladar is a perfect starting goalie for a tank. Not so good as a partner to bring Wolf up, however, and I worry that the way the team is currently constructed, Wolf will not be put in a position to succeed.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Count me in the group that thinks Vladar needs to play regularly before I pass judgment on what he is and what he can really be. Ditto for Wolf as well. It may just be difficult coming into a game after a month's layoff and performing well.

[St. Pats]

Do you really need to look at his stats? He is at the very best a mediocre backup. I'd stick with the mediocre theme and bring in an older 1B type to shelter Wolf. Trade Markstrom and Vladar and get the Wolf era off to a measured start.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Count me in the group that thinks Vladar needs to play regularly before I pass judgment on what he is and what he can really be. Ditto for Wolf as well. It may just be difficult coming into a game after a month's layoff and performing well.

But he is a backup and there is nothing really unique in his case.

He plays as much as any backup would and this is 2 seasons where his stats are really bad.

This is the job of a backup and not unique to his situation. Playing after a long layoff is what backups are expected to do.

[Jason14h]

My eye test has always thought he stinks . I laugh when people think teams are giving up a 2nd or 3rd for him

[the-rasta-masta]

I think he's capable with more playing time, I've thought he's shown signs but definitely not having the greatest season here. He was steady last year I seem to remember?

Perhaps if the Flames trade Markstrom they look at signing a guy like Rittich as a more reliable option since he's a guy they know.

[Funkhouser]

To NJD:
Markstrom
Depth D Man

To CGY:
2024 1st Rd Pick (Tij Iginla)
Jake Allen

To waivers:
Dan Vladar

[neo45]

A few insiders have reported that he could fetch a 2nd round pick. I don’t really get it but that would be cool. Seravalli, who is usually pretty accurate on our trade returns, is high on him. I think also Lebrun or Friedman recently mentioned the 2nd rounder being the ask

Just seems high based on his numbers

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

But he is a backup and there is nothing really unique in his case.

He plays as much as any backup would and this is 2 seasons where his stats are really bad.

This is the job of a backup and not unique to his situation. Playing after a long layoff is what backups are expected to do.

The uniqueness when it comes to Vladar is that he was a highly thought of goalie prospect. We also see him make highlight-reel saves over and over again. Now, if you believe him to be a finished product, then there is nothing more to see when it comes to Vladar. I believe that with more runway, there could be something there.

[Toonage]

He gets beat over the shoulder(s).

A lot.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

The uniqueness when it comes to Vladar is that he was a highly thought of goalie prospect. We also see him make highlight-reel saves over and over again. Now, if you believe him to be a finished product, then there is nothing more to see when it comes to Vladar. I believe that with more runway, there could be something there.

He also did have some sparkling numbers in the AHL (best save percentage and GAA) and comes from a system that continuously develops good NHL goalies (Boston). Also ideal size

Who knows with goaltending. If I were a fan of a team that gave up a second for him I wouldn’t be thrilled

[Enoch Root]

This is not a problem that needs to be solved immediately

[sketchyt]

I don't believe he has NHL-level footwork and mobility but it has improved. Additionally, because of his size, he plays deep (goal line -> out) which is fine but I don't think his puck tracking ability is strong enough to do that. He drops very early on shots.

Overall, he could have a decent career as a backup (decent on shots along the ice) but I do not see a starter in him.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yikes ... I got that one wrong.

He's not good at any level in that analysis and is worst in low danger of any goalie with 1000 or more minutes.

It sounds like he is No Good which is basically an Oiler at this point.

[saillias]

Feels like Vladar's time with the Flames has been a sunk cost fallacy just compounding on itself.

In my view they should've just bit the bullet and waived him at the end of training camp. Wolf is the goalie of the future here and the tandem should have been Markstrom/Wolf since October. But they insist on this bluff that Vladar has value and is a potential starter. All year long insiders have been telling us they're trying to shop him and getting no interest.