Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

That’s why it might be preferable to play somewhere in the East, but not necessarily right at home. He would still be close enough that his family can visit more often or make small trips to see him when he is in town n road games 10-15 times a season, but wouldn’t have the pressure of having to be a hometown hero. People are focusing too much on Philly or NJ specifically while pretty much any team in the East is a consideration.

For a young family, bring close but not so close for constant intrusions is probably preferable.

I think Detroit might be a dark horse candidate here.

[Toonage]

Dark horse concern? Did someone say Seattle? No, no one did. But LeBrun keeps bringing it up.

https://theathletic.com/3390300/2022...d-free-agents/

---
Word out of Seattle is the Kraken intend on being serious players in free agency.

“They’re going to spend big if they can,’’ a source reiterated Wednesday.

I wonder if they’ll make an offer to Johnny Gaudreau if he hits the market, for example. Wouldn’t surprise me if they did.

---

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I think Detroit might be a dark horse candidate here.

I agree. Really good stock of young talent and a lot of cap space. They will be team on the rise in the near future. I could totally see them going hard after him.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still feel like if the Flames offered $10M x 8 Years that it would get done.

I really don't see a team offering more than $11x7 ($77M).

So if the Flames would just go to $10 x 8 Years I think that would get it done ($80M).

I also think that the Flames are probably offering $9M x 8 right now ($72M), with Gaudreau's camp probably asking for $10.5-$11M.

I would be surprised if money is the issue right now.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Dark horse concern? Did someone say Seattle? No, no one did. But LeBrun keeps bringing it up.

https://theathletic.com/3390300/2022...d-free-agents/

---
Word out of Seattle is the Kraken intend on being serious players in free agency.

“They’re going to spend big if they can,’’ a source reiterated Wednesday.

I wonder if they’ll make an offer to Johnny Gaudreau if he hits the market, for example. Wouldn’t surprise me if they did.

---

If Gaudreau signs in Seattle then he had zero intention of ever signing here

[dissentowner]

So lets compare the pros and cons of Gaudreau moving on. Lets start with the pros first.

1. Gaudreau is from the NJ/Philly area, all his friends and family he grew up with are there.

2. His wife's family and friends are from the same area.

3. Less flight time, we know Gaudreau is not fond of flying.

4. If the choice was the Flyers he would be choosing his fav team growing up and his friend Hayes plays for them.

5. Gaudreau is starting a family, closer to friends/family is nice to have around.

Cons:
1. His wife and himself have certainly made friends in Calgary and have appeared to put down roots there.

2. The Flyers have no cap space, their best players have injury issues, they are trending downward, and they are trying to stall the rebuild by bringing in a coach who rubs skill guys the wrong way.

3. NJ has key pieces to sign that will eat up cap, they need another starting goalie, they need to bolster their D, they need a #3 C, and they want to get bigger. Gaudreau probably hated them growing up.

4. NYI: They are cap strapped, they are trending down, and hockey takes a backseat to pretty much everything else in NY.

5. Pittsburgh: A Flyers fan growing up joining an aging Penguins group whose window has closed. That is not happening.

6. Boston: He isn't a fit. They need centre depth, their core is aging, and their star RW is making noise he won't re-sign there. They are trending toward rebuild.

7. Regardless of playing on an East team, he still will have to fly quite a bit.

Pros and Cons for staying in Calgary. Pros first.

1. It is the team that gave him his break into the NHL, he didn't think he would be drafted.

2. He has bought a house in Calgary and his wife has joined him in the city.

3. His parents and family love the organization, love coming to Calgary where they are treated like royalty.

4. Gaudreau can easily afford to have his family live half the year in Calgary like he does if they so wished. If they don't with todays technology it is easy to video call every night if they want. It actually might be desirable for the Gaudreau's to have it where they have that break for half the year, not everyone when they are starting their own family wants their parents around 24/7.

5. The Flames can offer him much more money than any other team can with the 8th year.

6. The city eats, lives, and breathes hockey first, that matters to a star player like Gaudreau. He has stated he enjoys fans interacting with him and how engaging and passionate they are.

7. He is close with the roster and the organization for that matter. His best friend (Monahan) is there and he isn't getting moved for a variety of reasons. This is a guy who just got married and invited everyone in the organization to the wedding, even the equipment managers.

8. He is comfortable here. He knows his linemates, he knows the coach who just got a career year out of him, made his game complete, and has won multiple Stanley Cups. THis team is built to win now.

9. The lure of bringing the SC back to Canada. He might have been born in the US but Gaudreau surely understands what a big deal accomplishing that is.

10. The organizations reputation is second to none with community work. I think that matters to a guy like Gaudreau, especially with kids. He even met that kid after his parents pranked him that Gaudreau was leaving and told him he is going nowhere. That was a while ago but it shows his character. He probably has special relationships with many sick kids, that means a lot emotionally to a player.

11. The country and western theme of Calgary. Johnny is a big country guy, Calgary is basically Nashville North. He loves the Stampede.

12. The legacy and the records. It has been reported Johnny Gaudreau absolutely cares about these things. He can go down as one of if not the greatest Flame ever. Hold all the records, number retired, maybe a statue built at the new arena. In Philly, NJ, NY, Boston, etc.. he is just another guy who played for the team.

Cons:
1.Far away from his family, his wife's family if they have no interest in moving.

2. More flight travel than the East.


So what did I miss? Feel free to add. This is not me telling you why he is going to stay, this is just trying to balance out reasoning.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Dark horse concern? Did someone say Seattle? No, no one did. But LeBrun keeps bringing it up.

https://theathletic.com/3390300/2022...d-free-agents/

---
Word out of Seattle is the Kraken intend on being serious players in free agency.

“They’re going to spend big if they can,’’ a source reiterated Wednesday.

I wonder if they’ll make an offer to Johnny Gaudreau if he hits the market, for example. Wouldn’t surprise me if they did.

---

Johnny is a perfect fit in Seattle. He is exciting and has name recognition and there is no great expectations or pressure to win.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Johnny is a perfect fit in Seattle. He is exciting and has name recognition and there is no great expectations or pressure to win.

lol this guy

[Knut]

Unleash the Gaudreauvertime. I want to see if he has any hints about where Johnny is going.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Johnny is a perfect fit in Seattle. He is exciting and has name recognition and there is no great expectations or pressure to win.

He'd also be relinquishing himself to the fact he will never compete for a cup in his prime. I can't see Johnny signing for a team that is so far from competing. At least with NJ there's some other high end talent to play with and the team could theoretically develop into being a contender.

[CF84]

Living closer to family does not mean you will see them more. My wife and I are in the same small town as my parents and we all really enjoy each-others company, but we hang out 2 to 4 times per month. My sister's family lives in BC and when my parents visit, it's for 2 to 4 weeks at a time, a few times per year. When money isn't a barrier, distance can actually mean more time and intentional time together. It also means you have a chance to catch your breath when life gets crazy.

I think and hope that Gaudreau will sign with the Flames, but I also won't be shocked if he chooses Philly.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Every player interview I’ve ever seen about money talks about total contract value. And for the difference you are talking about the Flames would be offering only 10M compared to 11.3 by another team. There’s no way that difference will exist. The difference between 7 and 8 years will more likely be 7 million, not one.

And the hypothetical was him taking the highest offer for a “retirement contract”. We all agree that if he values something else, it doesn’t matter.

The point is that just saying “why would he not see what’s out there” ignores the risk og giving up the highest deal just on pretty easy math and predictions on what contracts are available. What team is going to offer 12 million x 7 years? Because that’s what it takes to equal 10.5x8.

Except you have to work a full 8 years to get that money instead of 7. There are a bunch of possible scenarios you'd consider to find each person's tipping point:

1. Career ending injury
2. Buy out
3. League min. salary to chase a cup (~$850k at that point)
4. $2M AAV
5. $3M AAV
...
10. $8M AAV
11. $9M AAV
12. Decide to retire on your own terms

And then on each of those AAV's you might factor how likely you are to get any term at age 36 vs. 37. Also how the cap/salaries inflate over that time.

You could look at a lot of data, or just go with your gut to make some rough odds on each option...I'd say something like:
10% #1 or 2
20% #3/4/5
50% of an AAV $4-6M
20% AAV>$6M

For me, I'd be happy to get the total contract value within $4-6M to consider them 'equal' financially (before considering lifestyle/hockey fit). Who knows how Johnny looks at it? He's already "gambled" by not signing last summer or mid-season - was that about $$ or location? Probably a bit of both...

[Gaskal]

Got a baby on the way and Calgary just got ranked pretty high on the world's list of great cities to live in. Also lives and breathes hockey.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Knut

Unleash the Gaudreauvertime. I want to see if he has any hints about where Johnny is going.

If Gaudreauvertime is just one of Johnny's family members, all is forgiven for the 2016 signing thread.

Start commenting again for old times' sake.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Dark horse concern? Did someone say Seattle? No, no one did. But LeBrun keeps bringing it up.

https://theathletic.com/3390300/2022...d-free-agents/

---
Word out of Seattle is the Kraken intend on being serious players in free agency.

“They’re going to spend big if they can,’’ a source reiterated Wednesday.

I wonder if they’ll make an offer to Johnny Gaudreau if he hits the market, for example. Wouldn’t surprise me if they did.

---

Seattle needs to make a splash but I just don't see it happening. I just don't see a scenario where he would leave Calgary a place where he's comfortable and would have a legacy to go even further west to what's not a very good team. We know he doesn't love flying and Seattle would be even worse. If he leaves the Flames I can't see him landing anywhere else but the eastern US.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by CF84

Living closer to family does not mean you will see them more. My wife and I are in the same small town as my parents and we all really enjoy each-others company, but we hang out 2 to 4 times per month. My sister's family lives in BC and when my parents visit, it's for 2 to 4 weeks at a time, a few times per year. When money isn't a barrier, distance can actually mean more time and intentional time together. It also means you have a chance to catch your breath when life gets crazy.

I think and hope that Gaudreau will sign with the Flames, but I also won't be shocked if he chooses Philly.

This fully. Almost exact same situation, except we are alone in Regina. But when we get visits, it's QUALITY visits. Our friends in Regina, have become our family in the short 8 years we've been here. ANyways, to each their own.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The only thing we know at this point is that Gaudreau hasn't said to his agent - just sign whatever they offer and (likely) that he hasn't told them he's not going to sign (i.e. they would probably trade his rights if that was the case). If he's looking to maximize his value then waiting is the best option as deadlines create urgency in negotiations and the money will likely go up.

I would be surprised if the Flames don't already know if Gaudreau had decided he would not re-sign in Calgary. More likely, I think, is that he has made his intentions known to see what is out there, but is also potentially still interested in staying with the Flames.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So lets compare the pros and cons of Gaudreau moving on. Lets start with the pros first.

1. Gaudreau is from the NJ/Philly area, all his friends and family he grew up with are there.

2. His wife's family and friends are from the same area.

3. Less flight time, we know Gaudreau is not fond of flying.

4. If the choice was the Flyers he would be choosing his fav team growing up and his friend Hayes plays for them.

5. Gaudreau is starting a family, closer to friends/family is nice to have around.

Cons:
1. His wife and himself have certainly made friends in Calgary and have appeared to put down roots there.

2. The Flyers have no cap space, their best players have injury issues, they are trending downward, and they are trying to stall the rebuild by bringing in a coach who rubs skill guys the wrong way.

3. NJ has key pieces to sign that will eat up cap, they need another starting goalie, they need to bolster their D, they need a #3 C, and they want to get bigger. Gaudreau probably hated them growing up.

4. NYI: They are cap strapped, they are trending down, and hockey takes a backseat to pretty much everything else in NY.

5. Pittsburgh: A Flyers fan growing up joining an aging Penguins group whose window has closed. That is not happening.

6. Boston: He isn't a fit. They need centre depth, their core is aging, and their star RW is making noise he won't re-sign there. They are trending toward rebuild.

7. Regardless of playing on an East team, he still will have to fly quite a bit.

Pros and Cons for staying in Calgary. Pros first.

1. It is the team that gave him his break into the NHL, he didn't think he would be drafted.

2. He has bought a house in Calgary and his wife has joined him in the city.

3. His parents and family love the organization, love coming to Calgary where they are treated like royalty.

4. Gaudreau can easily afford to have his family live half the year in Calgary like he does if they so wished. If they don't with todays technology it is easy to video call every night if they want. It actually might be desirable for the Gaudreau's to have it where they have that break for half the year, not everyone when they are starting their own family wants their parents around 24/7.

5. The Flames can offer him much more money than any other team can with the 8th year.

6. The city eats, lives, and breathes hockey first, that matters to a star player like Gaudreau. He has stated he enjoys fans interacting with him and how engaging and passionate they are.

7. He is close with the roster and the organization for that matter. His best friend (Monahan) is there and he isn't getting moved for a variety of reasons. This is a guy who just got married and invited everyone in the organization to the wedding, even the equipment managers.

8. He is comfortable here. He knows his linemates, he knows the coach who just got a career year out of him, made his game complete, and has won multiple Stanley Cups. THis team is built to win now.

9. The lure of bringing the SC back to Canada. He might have been born in the US but Gaudreau surely understands what a big deal accomplishing that is.

10. The organizations reputation is second to none with community work. I think that matters to a guy like Gaudreau, especially with kids. He even met that kid after his parents pranked him that Gaudreau was leaving and told him he is going nowhere. That was a while ago but it shows his character. He probably has special relationships with many sick kids, that means a lot emotionally to a player.

11. The country and western theme of Calgary. Johnny is a big country guy, Calgary is basically Nashville North. He loves the Stampede.

12. The legacy and the records. It has been reported Johnny Gaudreau absolutely cares about these things. He can go down as one of if not the greatest Flame ever. Hold all the records, number retired, maybe a statue built at the new arena. In Philly, NJ, NY, Boston, etc.. he is just another guy who played for the team.

Cons:
1.Far away from his family, his wife's family if they have no interest in moving.

2. More flight travel than the East.


So what did I miss? Feel free to add. This is not me telling you why he is going to stay, this is just trying to balance out reasoning.

It reminds me of the Friends episode when Ross made a pro and con list about Rachel and Julie. Rachel had many, many cons. Julie had just one. "She's not Rachel".

If Johnny wants to play close to the eastern US, your long list of pros for Calgary (which was a very good and accurate list) may simply not matter. With most lists, there is one key thing that trumps all else.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

2. The Flyers have no cap space, their best players have injury issues, they are trending downward, and they are trying to stall the rebuild by bringing in a coach who rubs skill guys the wrong way.

If Gaudreau signs they move JVR. They likely try to move JVR anyways, but that's the cap room (4M salary, 7M cap hit). As for trending downward, I'm not sure I would agree. Look at their players under 30:

Couturier (29)
Laughton (28)
Ristolainen (27)
Sanheim (26)
Konecny (25)
Provorov (25)
Lindblom (25)
Hart (23)
Farabee (22)

Atkinson is getting up there at 33, but Ellis is only 31, Hayes just turned 30. This isn't a team that's completely aging out, it's one that nearly perfectly fits for a 29 year old.

It was a bad team last season, but that was without Couturier and Ellis. It's a team not far removed from finishing 6th in the league pre-COVID where they were firing on all cylinders. They lost Giroux, a big but not monumental loss, but otherwise they traded Voracek for Atkinson and kept most of the team, it was just injuries that killed them.

Adding Couturier, Ellis and Gaudreau to any team in the league would instantly move them up a weight class or two. Imagine the 2022 Flames without Lindholm (Couturier), Andersson (Ellis) and Gaudreau, it's a lottery team instead of winning the division.

And then in 4 years when the core is getting old, they may get a second wind when the 5th overall they select this year is still on an ELC making sub 1 million. York (22) and NCHC player of the year Brink (20) are going to solidify their spot on the roster next season. Plus they have a lot of players that were suppose to have high potential but haven't quite reached it that could still break out a bit (Tippett from Florida, Frost, etc.). And if not, well they still have multiple 1st round picks in the coming year thanks to the Giroux trade.

They have some contracts that could be of some concern, but it's hard to really judge Hayes given his brother's death and injuries. Still paying Ristolainen 5M is questionable but it's not even Gosthibere later time in Philly years bad. And with Ellis pushing everyone down the depth chart, Ristolainen as the fourth defenseman behind Ellis, Provorov and Sanheim looks reasonable.

Fair play to injuries, especially if Ellis' pelvic injury isn't rehabilitated, but alternatively if Couturier's back surgery gets rid of the nagging injury, he could come back with a vengeance.

[CanucksWorstNightmare]

What are the chances the Swedish Mafia ( Lindholm Markstrom Backlund) have convinced Filip Forsberg to sign in Calgary ? Let Gaudreau walk and then use his money to do so? I would take Forsberg over Gaudreau all day long , Forsberg can handle playoff hockey a little more then Johhny in my opinion and is just as skilled. I really could see something like this happening , what do you guys think?