What concerns me most is that the polls have been strongly in Biden's favour for so long. This isn't news, and it is very unlikely that the Republicans are / have been simply waiting around for the inevitable. One has to believe, or at least suspect, that a lot of wheels have been in motion for some time now, developing plans and machinations to aid their cause.
I am not at all uncertain about the vote, I am uncertain - and frankly, scared - about how this will play out in order to trump the vote.
Didnt the "Polls" say the same thing about Hillary winning a landslide and Trump still won. Dont believe the polls folks.
Polls were still within the margin of error in 2016. Here's the problem, folks like yourself don't understand polling, you think its deterministic which it isn't and never has been.
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Originally Posted by JR449
Didnt the "Polls" say the same thing about Hillary winning a landslide and Trump still won. Dont believe the polls folks.
You have had so many opportunities in - like - every political thread on CP ever to educate yourself about this. And yet...
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There is just too much data to support the bias within the early vote, and the fact that it is up to 95,365,308 votes already cast, the potential for the red crush of election day voting is going to be marginalized and all but eliminated. Even if the election day vote breaks 70/30 in favor of trump, there aren't enough votes in the system to save him, if the data scientists are right in their projections. Biden will already have established a lead that is so insurmountable that Trump would have to see a record turnout of 160 million people to close the gap, believing that the election day vote breaks 70/30 Trump. With that in mind, I think this has potential to be a blowout. 353, 185 with a couple really big surprises in the mix.
Missed the other questions so here they are.
Which party controls the House? Democrats (247-191)
which party wins each of these senate races:
Colorado - Hickenlooper (D)
Michigan - Peters (D)
Maine** - Gideon (D)
North Carolina - Cunningham (D)
Arizona - Kelly (D)
Iowa - Greenfield (D)
Alabama - Tuberville (R)
South Carolina - Graham (R)
Montana - Daines (R)
Kansas - Marshall (R)
Georgia* - Ossoff (D)
Goergia (special)* No victor, will go to a second round a will go (R)
Last edited by Lanny_McDonald; 11-02-2020 at 10:17 AM.
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Didnt the "Polls" say the same thing about Hillary winning a landslide and Trump still won. Dont believe the polls folks.
No, the polls absolutely did not say that. This narrative that "the polls got it all wrong in 2016 OMG" needs to die a swift death. The polls correctly predicted the national popular vote almost bang-on. The polls slightly over-estimated Clinton's support (but importantly, they were within their stated margin of error) in three key states: PA, MI, and WI. Trump won those three by the narrowest of margins (about 70,000 total votes combined between all three states). Flip those from Trump to Clinton, and she wins the Electoral College and becomes president.
No pollster predicated a Clinton landslide. Everyone stated she was ahead but the election would be close. Nate Silver gave Trump about a one-in-three chance of victory.
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Didnt the "Polls" say the same thing about Hillary winning a landslide and Trump still won. Dont believe the polls folks.
Trump has virtually no chance of winning the vote. That isn't happening.
However, he will do everything in his power to 'win' anyways, because 1) he is the President and has the power and the moral depravity to do so, and 2) he has completely given in to his megalomania, and 3) Republicans will allow him to.
I'm not sure what we'll see, but I expect contested results. Whatever happens from there on out, it's going to coincide with the third virus wave rising and the economy getting hit hard. It's going to be a hard holiday season in the US.
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Arrogance is what said Hillary would win in a landslide.
And a resulting low voter turnout.
Trump was considered an unpolished, un-political novelty of sorts back in 2016 - some crazy ideas, but very few actually thought he was dangerous. And generally with politics, once people gain power, they tend to govern more moderately than they talk.
However, Trump did the opposite. He went full bat-#### crazy for 4 years, and the Republicans enabled him, instead of trying to rein him in.
As a result, there is no longer any question about what he is. And Democrats will not take this election lightly, they will come out to vote (as we are seeing).
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Just a reminder to all those out there, the 2017 election was decided on 77,000 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 77,000 votes across those three states. All of those states are trending to Biden will outside the margin of error, even if you double the margin of error to take into consideration the "silent Trump voter." This is a very different election than 2016. Stop trying to equate the two. They aren't a repeat.
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Just a reminder to all those out there, the 2017 election was decided on 77,000 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 77,000 votes across those three states. All of those states are trending to Biden will outside the margin of error, even if you double the margin of error to take into consideration the "silent Trump voter." This is a very different election than 2016. Stop trying to equate the two. They aren't a repeat.
Wisconsin and Michigan look fairly secure, but I don't think it's safe to assume that Pennsylvania is all that different than 2016. Fivethirtyeight had Clinton up 3.7 points while they have Biden up 4.9. RealClearPolitics had Clinton up 1.9 while they have Biden up 2.9. Trump outperformed the poll aggregators by 3.5-4.5 points.
Biden is definitely in a more comfortable position than Clinton. But if he does lose Pennsylvania, he's going to be in a tough spot even with Michigan and Wisconsin going blue again.
