Ongoing YYCCC (Chu + Farkas) Transgressions Threat

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

How is Nenshi’s French? He’d need that for federal leadership I would think. If he just went for a riding he could take Calgary Centre pretty easily I think.

I was kind of floored when i heard him doing press conferences in French a few years back. Has any other Mayor in Calgary history done that before?

God. Can't wait for Mr. Dressup to be booted back to drama teaching and trust fund baby.

[MegaErtz]

Anyone who thinks that Gondek can beat Farkas head-to-head doesn't have a good understanding of municipal affairs or the electorate in Calgary. The only way Bronconnier and Nenshi won originally were due to the conservative vote being split. Bronconnier won with 28.3% of the vote in 2001 and Nenshi with 39.6% in 2010. Neither would have won had there not been two other high profile conservative candidates splitting the right wing vote.

I doubt Nenshi runs for public office again. What's the point? The guy can make far more money and enjoy a private life, something he hasn't been able to do for eleven years now. Not all politicians want to feed at the public trough for their entire lives, like Kenney and McIver.

Getting Stephen Carter is huge for Gondek, but Farkas is going to cruise to victory with about two-thirds of the vote unless there's another high profile, financially backed conservative who enters the race, which I think is highly doubtful at this point. It is just too late in the game.

The housing developers run Calgary, and that's not likely to change anytime soon. As far as I see it, this race is over already, before a single vote is cast. He'll promise to get rid of all municipal spending on art sometime in September to clinch the race, and he'll have the votes on the new city council to do it.

[craigwd]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I was kind of floored when i heard him doing press conferences in French a few years back. Has any other Mayor in Calgary history done that before?

God. Can't wait for Mr. Dressup to be booted back to drama teaching and trust fund baby.

He taught a lot more than Drama.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Getting Stephen Carter is huge for Gondek, but Farkas is going to cruise to victory with about two-thirds of the vote unless there's another high profile, financially backed conservative who enters the race, which I think is highly doubtful at this point. It is just too late in the game.

Please, provide more details and statistical evidence about how you see Farkas winning with a 66% majority.

[MegaErtz]

Politics is an art, not a science. I have no details or statistical evidence to support my previous statement. The only way I can see Farkas not winning in a landslide is if another conservative candidate gets in the race and takes votes away from him, which is unlikely at this point. I believe Joe Magliocca had intended to run for mayor before his expenses scandal, which leaves Farkas as the Manning Centre's sole candidate. I suppose we'll see if I'm right in October.

[getbak]

If those assumptions about conservative voters were accurate, Bill Smith would be the mayor right now.

Last time, there was one of the highest turnouts for a municipal election with an incumbent mayor and a well-funded challenger, and Nenshi still won re-election with a majority of votes.

[MegaErtz]

You're absolutely correct. However, Calgary is insane in the way it favors incumbency - for example, I don't think an incumbent mayor has been turfed in my lifetime. In fact, I can count on one hand how many incumbent councillors have been voted out in the last three elections. Mar, McLeod, Fox-Mellway....it just doesn't happen very often.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Politics is an art, not a science. I have no details or statistical evidence to support my previous statement. The only way I can see Farkas not winning in a landslide is if another conservative candidate gets in the race and takes votes away from him, which is unlikely at this point. I believe Joe Magliocca had intended to run for mayor before his expenses scandal, which leaves Farkas as the Manning Centre's sole candidate. I suppose we'll see if I'm right in October.

You may be, I guess. But I question the kind of historical evidence you’re pointing to. There are LOTS of “conservative” candidates already to bleed minor votes from Farkas, and it’s hardly late in the game. The election is in October, it’s not quite March. Looking back, Barb Higgins didn’t even enter the 2010 race until late summer/early fall and she got over 20% of the vote.

At the end of the day, Gondek is good candidate who isn’t as divisive as Nenshi, and it’ll be easier for her to appeal to the conservatives than it will be for Farkas to appeal to people who aren’t blind stupid.

I think Farkas is going to have the financial backing, but I think he falls on his face. He’s a high functioning idiot.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Anyone who thinks that Gondek can beat Farkas head-to-head doesn't have a good understanding of municipal affairs or the electorate in Calgary. The only way Bronconnier and Nenshi won originally were due to the conservative vote being split. Bronconnier won with 28.3% of the vote in 2001 and Nenshi with 39.6% in 2010. Neither would have won had there not been two other high profile conservative candidates splitting the right wing vote.

I understand your argument with having two conservative candidates made the split work in these two's favour, but is there anything to note with the percentage increase from 2001 to 2010? Nenshi got more votes than Bronco did, and he's a muslim at that in a city that has a negative stereotype (underserving or not) of being very white-washed and conservative. With this now being another 10 years until a new mayor, is it possible the electorate may be more progressive with their votes?

I know the UCP got back in a couple years ago, and NDP was more of a protest vote, but the UCP brand is hurting at the moment based on polls. So people's mood in the city may not be so keen on candidates that come off conservatives right now as they may at other times.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by getbak

If those assumptions about conservative voters were accurate, Bill Smith would be the mayor right now.

Last time, there was one of the highest turnouts for a municipal election with an incumbent mayor and a well-funded challenger, and Nenshi still won re-election with a majority of votes.

Incumbency is a huge advantage. Godnyk is well known for those paying attention but Farkas would have a lead in name recognition.

So Nenshi/Smith you have name recognition and incumbency in his favour. In Godnyk/Farkas Farkas has name recognition and there is no incumbency advantage.

I’m concerned that Farkas starts at about 40% support and doesn’t need much more to win

[MegaErtz]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I strongly believe that Gondek is the best candidate for mayor, but how many females minorities has Calgary ever elected? Calgary is much, much more progressive now than it was twenty years ago, but I fear that it isn't there yet. Farkas has played every note correctly right from the start. Chahal, Woolley, Farrell, and he were the only four votes against the new arena deal, which is going to become increasingly unpopular as voters come to realize what they're on the hook for. His hands are clean on that one. Meanwhile, he'll get publicity trying to keep the YMCA open downtown when we all know that it won't happen. The public art policy is deep unpopular amongst conservatives and most centrists who can't understand why their property taxes are being spend on it, and that's his ace in the hole. For people like us who take the time to read threads like this, we know what he is, but for the average voter who starts paying attention a month before the election, he'll be appealing.

I will note that it is funny that I don't think Calgary will elect a female person of colour but will vote overwhelmingly for an openly gay candidate. This is why I think Joe Magliocca figured he had it won before he got carried away with his expense account.

[Lubicon]

Yesterday's West of Centre podcast (CBC) featured Don Iveson and Nenshi discussing the provincial budget. At the end Nenshi was asked if he was running again. He answered the his mind was not made up quite yet but he would decide very soon.

[Ashartus]

The Farkas name recognition is what concerns me for less informed voters. He's always in the media, usually with the slant "Farkas is the only one on council against wasting money." Combined with the big money that will be behind him, his chances are probably way better than I'd like.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

...Combined with the big money that will be behind him, his chances are probably way better than I'd like.

This opinion is widely shared but is completely wrong. Developers will always prefer candidates who support major capital spending on municipal infrastructure and help the city grow employment. Gondek is going to be by a long mile ahead of Farkas in gaining developers' , consultants', contractors' and O&G industry's support, because she is very openly and publicly supportive of whatever makes Calgary grow. Farkas got a reputation for being a mini-McIver "Mr.No"; his only public stance is to limit spending and limit government's meddling in where it shouldn't meddle - both decent goals, but very narrow-minded without sensible economic policy behind them. The only group who generally likes Farkas is the seniors. If the race is down to Gondek vs. Farkas as two major candidates, my money would be on Gondek without a doubt.


P.S. I still don't believe that Nenshi is not gonna run though. He enjoys being a mayor immensely and got literally nothing else to do.

[Roughneck]

Yeah Farkas’ is unique in being the presumptive conservative candidate who doesn’t have the broad business community support. Somebody who can’t get support of council and doesn’t want to get stuff built isn’t good for business.

Gondek isn’t a dummy, and with the Master of Whispers behind her along with what seems to be Davison’s support (who was probably the business community’s #1 choice) it isn’t a typical ‘liberal vs conservative’ proxy election like Nenshi vs Smith was.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

The Farkas name recognition is what concerns me for less informed voters. He's always in the media, usually with the slant "Farkas is the only one on council against wasting money." Combined with the big money that will be behind him, his chances are probably way better than I'd like.

I don’t think he has any more name recognition than Gondek.

There’s also a significant portion of the electorate that he has no chance if convincing to vote for him. He’s a long shot at best, I’m not sure he even gets 50% of the conservative leaning votes.

[Bigtime]

Ward Sutherland going for a third term in Ward 1:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1365744158061694978

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Ward Sutherland going for a third term in Ward 1:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1365744158061694978

Which European shoe designer is he going to be referencing during the campaign this time?

[Bill Bumface]

Ward really loves Ward.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

Godnyk [sic] is well known for those paying attention but Farkas would have a lead in name recognition.

Which is clearly not you.