Biden looks so damn old, and he really is. There is a very legitimate risk of him not making it to the general election or having a major health event. Sanders too. I really hope someone else is able to have a good campaign, and we don't have to default to those guys.
Why is Biden even running? It could reasonably be argued that one of the primary reasons Trump won was due to an electorate looking for change. Biden is a throwback to the political old-boys club. As much as Clinton was criticized for being a political weather-vane Biden is just as bad or maybe worse. The only people that Biden appeals to are those that were satisfied with the status quo or those who strictly go by name recognition. It could be said that he is a centrist Democrat but so are Harris and Buttigieg, both of which are much younger and don't have the same warts as Biden.
Biden can actually do the Democratic party a huge solid if he starts to endorse some of the platforms that Bernie and others espouse to help get the centrist Democrats behind Bernie or the eventual nominee.
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Why is Biden even running? It could reasonably be argued that one of the primary reasons Trump won was due to an electorate looking for change. Biden is a throwback to the political old-boys club. As much as Clinton was criticized for being a political weather-vane Biden is just as bad or maybe worse. The only people that Biden appeals to are those that were satisfied with the status quo or those who strictly go by name recognition. It could be said that he is a centrist Democrat but so are Harris and Buttigieg, both of which are much younger and don't have the same warts as Biden.
Biden can actually do the Democratic party a huge solid if he starts to endorse some of the platforms that Bernie and others espouse to help get the centrist Democrats behind Bernie or the eventual nominee.
He's a corporate Democrat, exactly the type of candidate the AOC and Bernie crowd will revolt against. I'm not even saying I dislike the guy. I just think he's far from the slam dunk candidate people think he is.
Biden is an establishment Democrat with money and connections in the party, to be sure. But he also has excellent rust belt appeal. He's always been more of a labour-supported working man's blue collar sort of Democrat, and doesn't have any of that "Ivory Tower" coastal odour to him that so much of the country reviles. In that sense, he is actually a very good candidate to contrast with Trump, because he has credibility with precisely the sort of people who the Democrats need to win over in order to win the election. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin - all of the states needed to win are squarely within his crosshairs as a candidate.
Meanwhile, he actually comes across as a pretty decent person. If it's an act, it's a damned good one. He's extremely likable. So I don't have any doubts that he can win over a large segment of the base who saw Hillary as fake. Even Obama, in his endorsement of Hillary, never seemed to really have his heart in it - he correctly sold her as enormously qualified, but you never got the sense that he really liked her. Having Obama genuinely and enthusiastically in Biden's corner as a candidate would certainly help. It'd be a ticket of three.
That being said, there are a couple of problems. The first, as I said, is that the wing of the party that want Bernie and think AOC is their saviour might just be unreachable by anyone else. They might actually throw another tantrum if Bernie loses. Of course, if Bernie agreed to be the Veep candidate, that would probably solve the issue.
The second is that he's simply too old - if he was going to run, it should have been last time.
But I do think that he could beat Trump, and would have a better chance of doing so than Bernie would in a general.
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Biden is an establishment Democrat with money and connections in the party, to be sure. But he also has excellent rust belt appeal. He's always been more of a labour-supported working man's blue collar sort of Democrat, and doesn't have any of that "Ivory Tower" coastal odour to him that so much of the country reviles. In that sense, he is actually a very good candidate to contrast with Trump, because he has credibility with precisely the sort of people who the Democrats need to win over in order to win the election. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin - all of the states needed to win are squarely within his crosshairs as a candidate.
He's pretty pro-NAFTA and pro-TPP, both of which don't play particularly well with blue-collar crowds.
He's pretty pro-NAFTA and pro-TPP, both of which don't play particularly well with blue-collar crowds.
I think you've overestimating the extent to which those groups are policy wonks. Biden's strength is connecting with people emotionally. If he talks about what he thinks about, say, the opioid crisis, it hits you right in the feels. Trump exploited the emotional connection - anger, resentment, the feeling that the world had moved past them and left them behind and the people out on the coasts don't know what they're going through or care to find out. They certainly didn't believe Clinton was their champion. Trump, con man that he is, manipulated the angry element of that feeling, and sold them a bill of goods, which should have been as obvious as a Nigerian Prince e-mail scam, but people are dumb. Biden is even better at that sales pitch than Trump is.
Again, though, 68 year old Biden could swing this. Not sure 76 year old Biden can. I guess we'll see.
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I think it will be very interesting how fast the progressive wing coalesces behind one candidate. As it is, Warren, O’Rourke, and others represent large contingents of progressives.
It seems likely to me that establishment Democrats coalesce quicker behind Biden than progressives behind Bernie. I think Harris, Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, etc step aside quite quickly, but I just don’t see the same from progressives.
However, in terms of grassroots organization, the progressive wing seems to be ascendant among Democrats - and I think Bernie will be their guy. It remains to be seen if Warren, etc. will give up easily as I expect of the centrists.
I also wonder - with respect to Bernie - if the “drain the swamp” message actually resonates with Americans: if it does, he really is that guy. It would be absolutely fascinating to see what a hippy from Vermont would do in the WH.
Why is Biden even running? It could reasonably be argued that one of the primary reasons Trump won was due to an electorate looking for change. Biden is a throwback to the political old-boys club. As much as Clinton was criticized for being a political weather-vane Biden is just as bad or maybe worse. The only people that Biden appeals to are those that were satisfied with the status quo or those who strictly go by name recognition. It could be said that he is a centrist Democrat but so are Harris and Buttigieg, both of which are much younger and don't have the same warts as Biden.
Biden can actually do the Democratic party a huge solid if he starts to endorse some of the platforms that Bernie and others espouse to help get the centrist Democrats behind Bernie or the eventual nominee.
Biden wanted to run last time, but stepped aside for Hillary. He probably sees it as his turn now.
Generally, the insiders of both parties seem very out of touch with reality. I agree, running a long-term insider is a horrible idea.
I think you've overestimating the extent to which those groups are policy wonks. Biden's strength is connecting with people emotionally. If he talks about what he thinks about, say, the opioid crisis, it hits you right in the feels. Trump exploited the emotional connection - anger, resentment, the feeling that the world had moved past them and left them behind and the people out on the coasts don't know what they're going through or care to find out. They certainly didn't believe Clinton was their champion. Trump, con man that he is, manipulated the angry element of that feeling, and sold them a bill of goods, which should have been as obvious as a Nigerian Prince e-mail scam, but people are dumb. Biden is even better at that sales pitch than Trump is.
Again, though, 68 year old Biden could swing this. Not sure 76 year old Biden can. I guess we'll see.
Am I though? Trump campaigned pretty hard on re-opening NAFTA and cancelling the TPP. Who do you think that was attempting to appeal to?
Bernie should get out of the Democratic race. He is not a Democrat, has never been one, does not intend to become one. If he wants to run for President he should do so as he presents himself - an independent.
Either that, or become a member of the Party he wants to lead, though that would stink of rank opportunism.
His views are likely more Liberation than Democratic but lets face it he's been a democratic US senator for 12 years, why on earth would he try to run under a different model now?
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That’s the Young Turks.
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