[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

... Wow, it didn't take long for this place to become HFBoards - Vancouver Canucks circa 2011, did it.

Knock it off. "This place" is not a monolithic hive-mind.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Foo should have the attitude that he is top of the depth chart, and he is going to come into camp and prove it. No roster spots are set in stone. They will go to the most competitive players.

I could see him outplaying Czarnik in camp and getting a spot. Those two and Mangiapane are in a real battle. But watch what Dube does when he gets a chance. I think he has the best motor of all of them.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wait, are people actually arguing that James Neal is not a dirty player?

... Wow, it didn't take long for this place to become HFBoards - Vancouver Canucks circa 2011, did it.

I don't think that's what people are arguing at all. They are saying we need a little dirt. And that the kind of dirty plays Neal does are generally just over aggressive, not punkish.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wait, are people actually arguing that James Neal is not a dirty player?

... Wow, it didn't take long for this place to become HFBoards - Vancouver Canucks circa 2011, did it.

I don't think so, at least I'm not meaning to. He is dirty - we need dirty.



Pretty big leap to the dramatic on your part though.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If Neal plays on the top line and gets PP time, he will score 30.

They have the potential for 100 goals: 30 - 40 - 30

Optimistic, I know. And there are always injuries to deal with. But keep in mind that with Ferland, they were on pace for 30 - 40 - 30 until early February. And as much as I like Ferland, Neal is a whole different ball game.

I would still much rather see him play on the second line, with first unit PP duties of course. The Flames need to give Tkachuk room to finally expand offensively with the teams best players. If it doesn't work out, fine, but at least you tried. James Neal is going to pot 25 goals alongside players like Lindholm and Backlund anyway but Tkachuk may very well evolve into a 40/40 guy for the next number of years if given the opportunity.

For me, this is a move the Flames made to provide Tkachuk the opportunity to step up while not taking anything away from the Backlund line.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wait, are people actually arguing that James Neal is not a dirty player?

... Wow, it didn't take long for this place to become HFBoards - Vancouver Canucks circa 2011, did it.

Filthy is the first word that comes to mind. Not dirty.

[ricardodw]

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

[Fire]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

No idea who that is but he makes some really bad predictions. Why would Neal only sign a one year deal? He also predicted that Perron would be sign to a $6.6M/yr deal.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

Whatever model he uses, it's very inaccurate. He's all over the place.

Is it supposed to tie production to past contracts or something? Any details as to how his model is built?

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

... Wow, it didn't take long for this place to become HFBoards - Vancouver Canucks circa 2011, did it.

Something you'd be intimately familiar with, being a Canucks fan and all who cheered for that team.

Thanks for the perspective, Canucks fan.

[oldschoolcalgary]

I'll be that guy: who is Chris Kane?

[Buff]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I'll be that guy: who is Chris Kane?

According to his twitter and website his name is Matt Kane... still doesn't help me out.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Knock it off. "This place" is not a monolithic hive-mind.

Thanked for the use of the phrase 'hive mind'

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I would still much rather see him play on the second line, with first unit PP duties of course. The Flames need to give Tkachuk room to finally expand offensively with the teams best players. If it doesn't work out, fine, but at least you tried. James Neal is going to pot 25 goals alongside players like Lindholm and Backlund anyway but Tkachuk may very well evolve into a 40/40 guy for the next number of years if given the opportunity.

For me, this is a move the Flames made to provide Tkachuk the opportunity to step up while not taking anything away from the Backlund line.

Yeah, you gotta try a few options. I have zero doubt they'll experiment a lot in preseason and early in the season with various combinations, see if various combos pop. There is certainly merit to the idea of putting Tkachuk on a more offensive-oriented line. In any event, he will certainly be a staple on the Powerplay, if he sticks with 3m or with say Backlund and Lindholm with high defensive responsibilities 5 on 5.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

Well, you can't just pick up a random name on the internet and make a claim to authority. Still, maybe Ryan was a an overpay for a third line/forth line guy but those numbers on Neal are way off.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

Lol, don't know who this Chris Kane guy is, but you know he's going to be full of crap when his "predictions" are down to the single dollar amount. It's like he ran the numbers through a numbers generator.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

Matt Cane is the guy who does this and had been somewhat accurate in the past.

You are also missing a couple of other things that his model builds for and that is different contracts depending on term length - then he puts estimate as to the most likely length of contract for that player.

His model prediction for a 5 year deal for Neal was actually $5.83M per season, or $100k more than the Flames paid. He just had a guess that Neal would be taking a 1 year deal (not sure why that would be the highest probability for Neal as nothing indicated he'd take a 1 year deal at this point).

Ryan was similar - he predicted a 2 year $2.5M contract but the market was clearly stronger than anticipated. His guess on a 3 year deal for Ryan was $3.06M or $65k less than the Flames paid.

And Czarnik he did predict would be around $750k for any length of deal but the Flames overpaid in this case to get a guy they were very high on who would be unproven in a model due to mostly being an AHLer.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:

Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268

Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr

Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA

Matt Cane predicted that:

For 5 years, Neal would sign for $5,853,567 per year.

For 3 years, Ryan would sign for $3,059,723 per year.

COuldn't find Czarnik

[devo22]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Matt Cane predicted that:

For 5 years, Neal would sign for $5,853,567 per year.

For 3 years, Ryan would sign for $3,059,723 per year.

COuldn't find Czarnik

that's actually impressive, not even off by 100k in both cases.

Predicting a one year deal for Neal was still incredibly stupid though.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by devo22

that's actually impressive, not even off by 100k in both cases.

Predicting a one year deal for Neal was still incredibly stupid though.

Yea, there's something definitely off about his calculations.

It seems he's treating every player (young or not) as a very young player heading into their 2nd contract and deciding that their contracts should get more expensive the more years it is (which makes sense for young RFA players), rather than less expensive for the older players.