Time to Fix the Forward Lines

[kehatch]

As of Oct 22 (data is 5v5):

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland

• Time together (Based on C): 44%
• Points (line): 0
• Points (players): 13
• +/- (players): -3 (Ferland is -4)
• Corsi (players): +1

Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

• Time together (Based on C): 82%
• Points (line): 5
• Points (players): 10
• +/- (players): +3
• Corsi (players): +64

Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr

• Time together (Based on C): 19%
• Points (line): 0
• Points (players): 2
• +/- (players): -6
• Corsi (players): -29 (saved by Jagr +15, most of which wasn't on that line)

Glass-Stajan-Brouwer

• Time together (Based on C): 53%
• Points (line): 0
• Points (players): 2
• +/- (players): -8
• Corsi (players): -40

Three of four of the most common lines have zero points (as a line). Without Jagr our bottom six is a -15, -84 SAT, and has zero points in 8-games.

Put Bennett on the wing. Call up Jankowsi. Sit/demote liabilities such as Glass. Because the bottom six, and the line combinations in general, are killing us.

[spuzzum]

Can Bennett or Tkachuk play RW? Might be worth a try.

Like you have pointed out and users from CP have said over and over like a broken record, gotta get the bottom six going:

3rd line: Bennett - Jankowsi - Jagr / Ferland
4th line: <insert crap> <insert crap> Brouwer (somewhat crap but decent for line 4)

[SebC]

Since you've already started the analysis, what have the productive combinations been?

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by SebC

Since you've already started the analysis, what have the productive combinations been?

Anyone with Gaudreau/Monahan not names Ferland. That includes Jagr, Frolik, and even Brouwer. Plus the 3M line. That is pretty much it on Forward 5v5.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SebC

Since you've already started the analysis, what have the productive combinations been?

According to Corsica, here are the lines that have played in over 6 minutes of ice time together so far, along with their shot attempt percentages (CF%), and expected goals percentages (xGF%) (which over a larger sample will trend towards each other):



(I think) I've color coded it where blue is 52%+, purple is 55%+, black is around 50% give-or-take, and red is.. just bad.

Expected goals accounts for shot quality, but can't account for individual player finishing skill (i.e. it can't tell the difference between Tanner Glass and Sean Monahan, only what kind of opportunities they are getting).

The major takeaway is that these are tiny sample sizes which don't tell us a lot, other than, there's no real need to hit the panic button as Gulutzan figures out his lines. It's 8 games into the season and the only historically really bad players are Glass and Bartkowski (and maybe Lazar, but no one knows what he is because Mono)- the rest just need to get going.

[TheScorpion]

Bennett - Monahan - Versteeg
Gaudreau - Jankowski - Lazar
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Stajan - Brouwer

Once Jagr gets back:

Bennett - Monahan - Jagr
Gaudreau - Jankowski - Versteeg
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Lazar - Brouwer

[SebC]

Notwithstanding the Jagr injury, sample size, and Jankowski's absence, looking at those Corsica numbers, it looks like

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lazar(/Jagr)
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr(/Lazar)
Glass-Stajan-Brouwer

is our best line-up. It's notable that two of those lines are the ones in the first post that have no points together - but the shot metrics are showing that they should actually be beating their opposition.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SebC

Notwithstanding the Jagr injury, sample size, and Jankowski's absence, looking at those Corsica numbers, it looks like

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lazar(/Jagr)
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr(/Lazar)
Glass-Stajan-Brouwer

is our best line-up. It's notable that two of those lines are the ones in the first post that have no points together - but the shot metrics are showing that they should actually be beating their opposition.

TBH we have a much larger sample of Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland that shouldn't be ignored either just because Ferland has been unable to complete a pass for a couple games:

435.35 TOI from 2014-thru-present
Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
53.05% CF
53.38% xGF
52.9% GF

So really, our most consistent top six is

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

Which leaves Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr to build some chemistry.

[SebC]

There's a case for taking Jagr from the third line to the first because it appears to significantly upgrade it, but otherwise, we're basically on the same lines everyone expected and that the Flames have been running. Stay the course and wait for +/- to do what xGF predicts it will?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SebC

There's a case for taking Jagr from the third line to the first because it appears to significantly upgrade it, but otherwise, we're basically on the same lines everyone expected and that the Flames have been running. Stay the course and wait for +/- to do what xGF predicts it will?

Yes, however some individuals flat out have to play better (Jagr needs to find the back of the net, Bennett needs to lose the yips, Ferland needs to be himself (he looked good last game), and Versteeg needs to stop being an offensive zone giveaway machine.

Stay the course and keep Bartkowski 3000km away from the team because he is is a walking handicap in all three zones. And then rotate Stajan to 4LW, Jankowski to 4C, and figure out what you're doing with the mess at 4RW and you're where we should be.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

TBH we have a much larger sample of Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland that shouldn't be ignored either just because Ferland has been unable to complete a pass for a couple games:

435.35 TOI from 2014-thru-present
Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
53.05% CF
53.38% xGF
52.9% GF

So really, our most consistent top six is

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik

Which leaves Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr to build some chemistry.

Whether is is Ferland, Lazar, Jagr, or anyone else the top 6 is fine. It is the bottom 6 that is a disaster.

[savardandjokinen]

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lazar
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Bennett-Jankowski-Ferland
Versteeg-Stajan-Brouwer

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Whether is is Ferland, Lazar, Jagr, or anyone else the top 6 is fine. It is the bottom 6 that is a disaster.

The following lines were not a disaster:
Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr (just... give it a chance...)

Gaudreau-Bennett-Lazar (but Lazar is a a wildcard)

Glass-Stajan-Brouwer (not a disaster, but clearly we know Glass is not an NHLer, and needs to be replaced which is not difficult, just common sense that a rock in the alley could possess)

Just give it time.

[Vinny01]

Gaudreau-Monahan-Jagr/Bennett
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Versteeg-Jankowski-Bennett/Jagr
Ferland-Lazar-Brouwer

Jagr does look good on the top line and should be on the first y it PP but Jagr can’t pkay 18-20min per game. Bennett needs to be moved to the wing and Jankowski needs to be recalled. Give Bennett a legit shot to succeed by putting him with Monahan and Gaudreau when Jagr takes a shift off. Let him play with Janko and Versteeg as well and hopefully get some scoring depth.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The following lines were not a disaster:
Versteeg-Bennett-Jagr (just... give it a chance...)

Gaudreau-Bennett-Lazar (but Lazar is a a wildcard)

Glass-Stajan-Brouwer (not a disaster, but clearly we know Glass is not an NHLer, and needs to be replaced which is not difficult, just common sense that a rock in the alley could possess)

Just give it time.

Bennett had a year with Versteeg with poor results and the pair has started off about has poor as you could expect. Besides, Jagr has already been moved off the line.

Bennett with Gaudreau might be worth a shot, but with Bennett playing poorly and in the doghouse due to PIMs it isn't going to happen any time soon.

The Jagr injury is the perfect chance to call up Jankowski and move Bennett to wing. It's the right move.

As for Stajan/Brouwer/Glass. That's a 9 million dollar fourth line that is losing against other fourth lines. Tough to defend in my opinion.

[Samonadreau]

Copied from the Janko thread:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Jagr
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Versteeg
Stajan/Ferland-Lazar/Stajan-Ferland/Brouwer

-Tkachuk can take the extra 4 shifts a night on the top line that makes the difference between Jagr's 16 minutes and Johny and Sean's 19-20.
- Lines are balanced
- Speed is injected into the 4th line
- Bennett gets to work on his game with Backs
- Can try Versteeg, Ferland and Lazar on RW with Janko

[Harry Lime]

I wonder what would happen if we looked at it as one player driving each line, and then populated with complimentary pieces to that one player. The four players being Gaudreau, Backlund, Monahan and Lazar (whom I think could be the prototypical fourth line centre, although we never give him a chance there).

Gaudreau-Jankowski-Jagr
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk-Monahan-Versteeg
Stajan/Ferland/Glass-Lazar-Brouwer

First line built on possession and not speed
Second line on the tough defensive assignments
Third line a potential north/south points monster with awesome matchups
Fourth line to wear down the opposition and make them sad

And yes, I realize that Jankowski will never be given first line consideration, but keep in mind that I am one of those who feel that Backlund is the number one centre.

Roll the first three. The fourth line will get more minutes than them all anyway, as those are the penalty killers.

I feel that Monahan and Gaudreau could both flourish without being on the same line, and elevate the games of some other players. I also don't like putting too many rookies or 2nd year players on the same line.

[home_sweet_dome]

I've posted this in a bunch of threads already but since there's a dedicated thread to lines here it is again:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk
Bennett - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland/Versteeg - Janko - Jagr
Ferland/Versteeg - Stajan - whoever

Tkachuk played RW in junior with 2 players who are very similar to Gaudreau/Monahan in Marner/Dvorak. This combo potentially gives us a lethal 1st line and is an upgrade on current. Ferland/Lazar/Jagr are not 1st liners, Tkachuk definitely could be one.

Bennett on the wing with Backlund and Frolik could allow for Bennett's offensive game to take off. Not much if any dropoff from the current 3M line.

Janko with Jagr and either Ferland or Versteeg can be an awesome 3rd line with good size and could create havoc with the cycle game.

4th line also upgraded with 1 of Ferland or Versteeg down there.

Basically 3 of our 4 forward lines are upgraded as a result of these moves and i don't see much if any dropoff on the other line.

I've seen other posters keep the 3M line intact and move Bennett to the 1st line but IMO Tkachuk is better suited playing the right side than Bennett.

To me this is a no brainer to at least try out but i'm not holding out any hope that Gulutzan and staff will see the light.

[N-E-B]

Gaudreau-Monahan-Jagr
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Bennett-Jankowski-Ferland
Versteeg-Lazar-Brouwer

Stajan/Glass extras

I like the top two lines, I wouldn't touch em.

[FBI]

I must say it is warming my heart to see a lot of you putting the FBI line together